(13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. The agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the two months starting on 1 May 2020. In the following 6 months, OPEC+ countries will cut production by 7.7 mb/d more and in the subsequent 16 months, the adjustment will constitute 5.8 mb/d.Oil prices started to rise as early as ahead of emergency OPEC+ meeting held on April 9 - the first meeting after Russia and Saudi Arabia failed in early March to reach an agreement on oil production cuts, sending oil prices to historic lows.The oil market is currently dramatically oversupplied due to the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and contracting demand caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. According to the latest estimate by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil supply exceeded demand by around 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020 and the gap is expected to extend to 11.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
(14 June 2021) In 2020, the US unemployment rate averaged 8.1%, the highest annual rate since 2012. In January and February of last year, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at a 50-year low of 3.5%, but unemployment soared to 14.7% in April 2020 due to mass layoffs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. US unemployment declined steadily in the second half of last year and has continued a gradual downward trend this spring. In May 2021 it reached 5.8%, which is 56% lower than the year before and equals the unemployment level of 2014. Here are the US unemployment rate projections from the four leading sources:According to the economic projections of the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate in the US will average at 4.5% by the end of 2021 and pursue its fall in 2022 and 2023, reaching 3.8% and 3.5% levels correspondingly.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the unemployment rate will decrease to 5.8% in 2021 and continue to fall in the following two years, hitting the pre-pandemic level of 3.7% in 2023.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its current Economic Outlook expects the rate of unemployment to drop to 5.6% in 2021 and then remain on a downward trend, falling to 4.3% by 2022.The European Commission in its spring Economic Forecast projects that the US unemployment rate will decline to 4.6% in 2021, and then to 3.4% in 2022, dropping below the unemployment rate before the pandemic. For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page: US | Canada | Mexico | France | Germany | UK | Italy | Brazil | Argentina | Turkey | Australia | China | India | Japan | South Korea | Indonesia | Russia | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | EU | Euro Area Or, select an economic indicator: GDP Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Unemployment Forecast | Current Account Balance Forecast | Government Debt Forecast
As part of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, the EIA is moving beyond its traditional coverage of the physical fundamentals of global oil markets to understand global energy prices moments. In addition to assessing factors such as energy consumption, production, inventories, spare production capacity, and geopolitical risks, EIA will now examine other influences, such as futures market trading activity, commodity investment, exchange rates, and equity markets. Today's Viz of the Day describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets. The analysis explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.
(28 June 2021) Nickel prices were up 44% year-over-year in May 2021, from $12,179 to $17,577 per metric ton. Since the 13-year low in February 2016, nickel prices have been showing strong cyclical growth. Leading international agencies have made the following nickel price predictions:The World Bank, in its commodity forecast report, estimated that nickel prices will fall to a low of $16,000 per metric ton in 2022, but they expect the average spot price for nickel will grow slightly further after the correction, reaching $18,000 per metric ton by the end of the year. The IMF's metal cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) report revealed an expected rise from $18,000 per metric ton in 2021 to $19,000 in 2026. IMF experts expect that the nickel CIF price will grow as the overall metal price index declines.Industry Innovation and Science Australia (IISA) expects a nickel deficit after 2022. The top three countries with key nickel reserves are Indonesia (21 million metric tons), Australia (20 million metric tons), and Brazil (6 million metric tons). The leading global consumer, China, is demonstrating increasing dependency on imports of nickel. Dive deeper into historical commodity prices from the World Bank and IMF or commodity price forecasts. You can also explore with Knoema a variety of other critical commodities, including: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil As you examine commodity prices and forecasts, you may also be interested in economic forecasts for the G20 countries across the following indicators: GDP growth | inflation | unemployment | government debt | current account balance | external debt.
This page presents GDP forecast figures by country for the period from 2021 to 2025 as estimated by the IMF in its latest edition of World Economic Outlook (WEO) as of October 2020. In the table below, countries are ranked by the gross domestic product measured in purchasing power parities (PPP) at current prices. Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP
(12 October 2022) According to October 2022 World Economic Outlook by IMF the global economy is experiencing a number of turbulent challenges. Inflation higher than seen in several decades, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Significant slowdowns for the largest economies point to unusually large and downside risks to outlook: a US GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a euro area contraction in the second half of 2022, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis.In the global ranking of countries by economy size, the main shift in 2022 compared to 2021 is the emergence of Egypt as the 18th largest economy.
(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated vaccination progress.The IMF continues to emphasize the unusually large uncertainty surrounding its baseline projection due to unknowns regarding the path of pandemic recovery and the efficacy of government policies and support measures.The IMF projects that the US and Japan will not only return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2022 and 2023, but also demonstrate a better growth performance after the recovery than predicted in pre-COVID estimates. Other top world economies are expected to return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2021 and 2022, falling only 1.5% short of their pre-COVID baselines by 2024. India is the exception; the IMF forecasts a growth gap of 11% below pre-COVID projections by 2024.In the global ranking of countries by economy size, the main shift in 2021 compared to pre-COVID 2019 is the emergence of Taiwan as the 19th largest economy. Successful containment of coronavirus and strong global demand for electronics and semiconductors boosted the country's economic growth during the pandemic. The IMF expects Thailand, which has been hit hard by the global tourism industry crisis, to drop out of the world's 20 largest economies list.
(23 May 2021) Copper prices reached an all-time high of $10,512 per metric ton on May 9, marking a 130% growth since March 22, 2020. The consensus forecast from three leading sources (IMF, World Bank, and the Australian Government) for 2021 is $8,357. The average year-to-date price as of May 20 was $8,915, which means the forecasts do not reflect an expectation of further increases over the second half of the year. The copper price growth over the course of the past year was driven primarily by the high demand from China, the top copper consumer, as well as growing optimism about the overall economic recovery in view of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. The demand for copper is expected to rise further amid rising concerns about low copper inventories. Copper is the most widely used metal in energy generation, transmission infrastructure, and energy storage. It is the next most used metal after aluminum and steel in the construction, telecommunications, transportation, and automobile manufacturing sectors. Here are the copper price forecasts issued by each of the leading international agencies:The World Bank estimated in its commodity forecast report that the spot price for copper will average $8,500 per metric ton by the end of 2021. The price is expected to decrease to $7,500 in 2022 and then grow to $8,250 by 2035. The IMF projects the growth of the copper price from an average of $6,174 per metric ton in 2020 to $8,313 in 2021, followed by a gradual decline to $7,600 per metric ton by 2026.The Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources of Australia also expects the price of copper to rise sharply to $8,257 in 2021, with a slight decrease to $7,724 in the following two years and consequent growth to $8,876 by 2026. Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | aluminium | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil
(9 June 2021) The aluminum price reached the value of $2,534 per metric ton on May 7th of this year, the highest price since the two-year high in April 2018. The consensus forecast for 2021 from three leading sources (the IMF, the World Bank, and Innovation and Science Australia, an advisory board to the Australian government) is $2,072 per metric ton. The rise in aluminum prices is a result of high demand in China and growing concerns that China's new climate policy, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, could limit future supply of the metal. In 2020, China accounted for 56% of all refined aluminum production. Steadily increasing demand could see the global aluminum market tighten into a deficit. The production of aluminum is a highly energy-intensive process, and despite energy efficiency improvements in China in recent decades, the process remains highly carbon-intensive: more than 80% of China's aluminum is produced using coal-fired power. The leading sources' aluminum price forecasts are as follows:According to the World Bank, the aluminum price will increase to $2,000 per metric ton (t) in 2021, a 17% rise from an average of $1,703/t in 2020, and experience moderate growth to $2,050/t in 2022. By 2035, the World Bank predicts aluminum prices will reach $2,400/t.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that aluminum prices will rise to $2,083/t in 2021 — a jump of 22% over the previous year, the largest predicted increase among the three forecasts — and to $2,126/t in 2022. The long-term IMF projection is that the price of aluminum will reach $2,276/t in 2026. Innovation and Science Australia (ISA) predicts that the price of aluminum will grow to $2,134/t in 2021 and to $2,160/t in 2022, the highest growth forecast by any of the three organizations. For their forecasts, both World Bank and the IMF use London Metal Exchange (LME) settlement prices for high-grade unalloyed primary ingots of 99.7% purity. Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil
(28 June 2021) Zinc prices showed 50% growth year-over-year in May 2021, an increase to $2,965 per metric ton from $1,975 in May 2020. The increase followed a two-year decline of 45% from the ten-year high of $3,500 in 2018. The price is currently 11.5% above the 5-year moving average — a figure analysts were not expecting, since zinc demand is declining in the era of COVID-19. Several key supply and demand drivers are playing a role. The upward price drivers are as follows: Disruption of zinc concentrate supplies due to the suspension of large zinc mines as a result of the COVID-19 pandemicPersistent environmental restrictions in China and mine closures and disruptions in other countriesRecovery of zinc consumption levels in China, the US, and other countries due to rebounding construction levels. China has been implementing a number of infrastructure projects such as construction of railways, airports, and metro lines. And the downward price drivers: Transition of the world zinc market from deficit to surplus; according to investingnews estimates, the surplus of zinc in the world market in 2021 may amount to about 400 thousand tonsRecovery of mining at large zinc mines in Peru, Mexico, and Bolivia, among other countries Increase in zinc mining and production in China due to the gradual replacement and modernization of old zinc-smelting facilities in order to meet new environmental standards. Zinc price predictions from the leading international agencies for the next few years are as follows:The World Bank in its commodity forecast report estimated that the average spot price for zinc will fall to $2,400 per metric ton (t) in 2022, down from $2,700/t at the end of 2021. After that, a slow growth period will start.The IMF's report indicated a completely different expectation: a rise from $2,828/t in the end of 2021 to $2,859 in 2022. For the following period, IMF experts expect a smooth, gradual decline. They predict the price will drop to $2,818/t by 2026.The forecast from Industry Innovation and Science Australia (IISA) is more similar to the World Bank's predictions: they expect a decrease in the zinc spot price from $2,686 at the end of 2021 to $2,362 in 2022, with further slow increase through 2026. Dive deeper into historical commodity prices from the World Bank and IMF, or explore commodity price forecasts. You can also explore a variety of other critical commodities with Knoema, including: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil As you examine commodity prices and forecasts, you may also be interested in economic forecasts for the G20 countries across the following indicators: GDP growth | inflation | unemployment | government debt | current account balance | external debt.
Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues| Federal Debt Held by the Public
Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues | Federal Debt Held by the Public
(4 February 2021) Retail investors combined forces via Reddit on Monday to push silver prices up and by doing so to put a "squeeze" on banks that were shorting silver, a competing investment to government bonds and currencies. The result was an 11% spike in silver prices to $30/oz, the highest value in eight years. The victory was short-lived as prices fell the next day by 8% to $27/oz.The price spike was fueled by the rapid inflow of retail investors into the iShare Silver Trust—the largest exchange-traded product tracking the metal—which recorded an unprecedented $93 million net inflow on Monday.In 2020, silver prices averaged $20.5/oz rising from $14.9/oz in March to $24.9/oz in December and peaking at $27/oz in August. Price forecasts and futures data suggest that the Reddit crowd will be disappointed by silver prices in the coming years. World Bank estimates show the price of silver stable at around $18/oz over the next 10 years. Futures contracts with delivery in the next 5 years put the price of silver at around $26/oz. Price forecasts of other critical commodities: gold | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil
(15 June 2021) The US natural gas spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana — the benchmark price reference for the US natural gas market and an important price reference in global gas trading — will average $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, a 51% increase from the 2020 average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency attributes this year's price growth to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increasing domestic natural gas consumption outside of the power sector. In 2022, Henry Hub prices are expected to decrease to $2.93/MMBtu due to slowing growth in LNG exports and rising US natural gas production. The World Bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasts US natural gas prices to remain close to current levels over the rest of 2021, averaging $2.80/MMBtu, which marks a 39% rebound from 2020. The report cites global economic recovery, cold weather, and supply disruptions as the main drivers of the rebound in prices this year. The World Bank expects the other two benchmarks, European and Japanese natural gas import prices, to show different dynamics in 2021, with a steeper increase in European prices and a small decline in Japanese prices. The consensus forecast for 2021 from the four leading sources — EIA, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the Canadian Government — is $2.81/MMBtu, which is 39% higher than in 2020. See the charts below to compare forecasts from different sources and analyze supply and demand forces. Natural gas is widely used in energy generation, transportation, commercial, and household sectors, as well as in energy-intensive industries such as chemical, iron and steel manufacturing. The United States, Europe, Russia, and China, the top four natural gas consumers, together accounted for 53% of global consumption in 2019. Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | crude oil
(13 May 2021) Brent crude oil prices will average $62.26 per barrel in 2021 and $60.74 per barrel in 2022 according to the forecast in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This represents a rebound from the 2020 average of $41.69 per barrel, but it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. The International Monetary Fund, in its latest release of the World Economic Outlook, predicts a similar recovery scenario, with Brent oil prices rising to US$59.74 per barrel in 2021 and then to $56.23 in 2022. Oil price forecasts depend on the interaction between supply and demand for oil in international markets. The most important supply-side factors impacting pricing in the next few years are expected to include US shale oil production, US crude oil stocks, and OPEC oil supply. A chronology of oil price swings since the end of 2019:In December 2019, Brent crude price averaged $67 per barrel, which was $10 higher than at the end of December of the previous year. This reflected the expectation of improving economic conditions in 2020.However, in January 2020, oil prices lost all the gains accumulated since October 2019 as the Coronavirus outbreak in China affected oil demand due to travel restrictions and decreased entertainment spending.In early March 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC partner countries failed to reach an agreement on oil production cuts. As a result, the two largest oil producers — Russia and Saudi Arabia — commenced a price war, flooding market with cheap oil against the backdrop of falling global demand as local coronavirus outbreaks developed into a pandemic. Oil prices plummeted, as a result, soon reaching a twenty-two-year low of $9.12 per barrel in April.On April 12, OPEC+ countries agreed to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels/day during the next two months. Anticipation of the successful deal led to an oil price rebound. But on April 20, prices for WTI futures that were due to expire the next day plunged below zero for the first time ever. Because of the dramatic shrinkage of oil demand due to the Coronavirus lockdown, companies had filled their entire storage capacity with unused oil and were trying to get rid of expiring futures contracts at their cost.By the end of 2020, when the first COVID-19 vaccination campaigns had started, the crude oil price reached $52 per barrel.During the first months of 2021, oil prices continued growing, reaching a one-year maximum of $69.95 on March 5. The gains reflect improving oil demand due to progress in COVID-19 vaccination as well as recovering global economic activity. Rising shipping costs and disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in Texas also put upward pressure on crude oil prices in February. Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas
(16 August 2021) In order to limit the rise in global temperatures to the targets established in the Paris agreement, economies need to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The most developed countries, as well as the biggest emitters, are announcing targets designed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and even earlier. Achieving these goals, however, will require significantly restructuring of the energy sector to use carbon-free (renewable and nuclear) energy sources and low-carbon fuels (biofuels, hydrogen). This dashboard presents forecasts from the two leading international agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP International, for ongoing changes in energy demand and supply in the coming decades under a variety of scenarios. The IEA presented two forecasts (the Stated Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario) in its September 2020 World Energy Outlook, as well as a third forecast in its Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap published in May 2021. The first two scenarios show the potential future shifts in demand dependent on the degree of future changes that occur. The Roadmap forecast, on the other hand, shows the changes that would need to be implemented in order to reach carbon neutrality by the mid 21st century. Scenario details and visualizations can be found below. Some highlights:Under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the most rapid shift in primary energy demand will occur in Europe and the United States, which expect a decrease of 227 and 187 million metric tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in energy demand, respectively, by 2030. Global energy demand in coal, under the STEPS forecast, will drop by 271 Mtoe during the period from 2019 to 2030, while demand for oil and natural gas will grow by 249 and 475 Mtoe, respectively.Under the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), on the other hand, global coal demand would shrink by 1,531 Mtoe by 2030, and oil demand by 562 Mtoe, while natural gas demand would be unchanged. Renewable energy demand, in contrast, would grow by 1,514 Mtoe by the end of the decade.The IEA's "Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap" shows that the share of renewables in the energy supply should reach 66% by 2050 to meet the net-zero emission goal, while in electricity generation the share of renewables should be 88% by 2050. Overall energy demand and supply are expected to decrease due to electrification of transport and improvements in energy efficiency, while electric power generation will increase to 2.6 times the current level. BP International presented three different energy production and consumption scenarios in its 2020 Energy Outlook: Business-As-Usual, Rapid Transition, and Net Zero. Details and visualizations for each scenario can be found below. Highlights:The Business-As-Usual scenario expects that the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand would decrease to 66.6% by 2050 from the current 84.6%. Energy demand would increase by the middle of the century, reflected in a projected growth in gas consumption of 37%, as well as growth of 492% in renewable energy consumption.In the Rapid Transition scenario, fossil fuels would represent 39.6% of primary energy demand by 2050. Energy demand would rise slightly by 2050; fossil fuels energy consumption would decrease, including natural gas consumption, which would decline after reaching its peak in 2035; renewable energy consumption would rise dramatically, from the current 27.1 exajoules to 277 exajoules at mid-century.Under the Net Zero scenario, the energy demand would also rise slightly by 2050, and fossil fuels would represent 21.7% of primary energy demand. The share of renewables in energy demand could reach 68% by 2050. In India, the share of non-fossil fuels (including nuclear energy) could rise to 76% of total consumption by 2050; the share could rise to 67% in China and to an average of 73% among OECD member states.
(15 January 2021)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. In a world where the policy responses to COVID-19 vary from indifference to economic shut-ins for weeks and months at a time, the result is an economic reality that feels akin to wartime disruption. The nature of the COVID-19 disruption is utterly unique. Some sectors of the economy are closed down or severely restricted while others are left to work as they see fit. Because of interlinkages between economies, only a modeling system capable of allowing for the interindustry links as well as global linkages to manage some of the impacts and assumptions outside of economic factors can offer the possibility of projecting the economic effects. Quantitative Economic Research International (QuERI) offers one such model, with a sector specific approach that may be better suited to analyzing the effect of a government induced shutdown and reopening of economies. General adjustment factors in the QuERI model are developed based on the degree of virus and the stage of development to disturb the model’s baseline (December, 2019) result. Below we consider the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic through a macroeconomic lens, including adjustments to gross domestic product, private consumption, business investment, government expenditures, exports and imports, as well as financial variables, including prices, exchange rates, and interest rates.
Now, after more than three decades, the Chinese government is ending its controversial one-child policy. Originally implemented in 1980 to curb its rapid population growth, China’s one-child policy has witnessed a fertility rate decline from 2.7 births per woman in 1981 to 1.6 births in 2015. Those who backed the one-child policy claimed it led to 300 million fewer births and lifted 200-400 million people out of poverty. Yet, the one-child policy has taken a toll, with more than 336 million abortions and 222 million sterilizations having since taken place. Gender imbalance in China, with 115.9 boys born to every 100 girls in 2014, has led to increases in sex-trafficking and prostitution. The Chinese population is aging drastically, with an estimate of one in every three Chinese being over 60 years of age by 2050 and a dwindling working class to support them. The country is also facing labor shortages and slowing economic growth. Despite the move by the government to lift the policy, experts warn that it will take decades before the demographic crisis is relieved. In the meantime, social and health care needs for the nation’s elderly continue to grow. Today’s viz shows the impact the policy has had on China’s population and economy in the past and for years to come.
In 2020, coal prices dropped to the lowest level since 2016 as coronavirus lockdowns undermined demand, but the EIA, IMF, and World Bank all expect a rebound in 2021. According to the World Bank, Australian coal prices fell by 24 percent in August, compared with the same period of 2019, reaching a four-year low of $50.14 per tonne. In September and October, prices already began to climb, rebounding by 9 and 7 percent month-on-month, respectively.The IEA reported that the 2020 drop in coal demand was the largest since World War II driven by reduced demand in almost every sector of every region in the world. Electricity sector consumption was acutely affected. Electricity generation from coal in the EU, for example, decreased by 11 percent in August. Leading international agencies uniformly expect a price rebound in 2021, but estimates vary:The EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasted that coal prices will increase to $56.7/mt in 2021 from $53.9/mt in 2020.The World Bank October 2020 commodity forecast estimated that the price of coal will increase to $57.8/mt in 2021 from $57.3/mt in 2020, with slow price growth beyond 2021.The IMF October 2020 release of the World Economic Outlook detailed an alternate scenario under which prices could reach $63.5/mt in 2021 and increase still further to 2023 to $73-76/mt. Price forecasts of other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminium | nickel | zinc | crude oil | natural gas
(13 January 2020)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. The global economic trajectory once COVID-19 vaccines are widely available and the pandemic ends appears much less promising for hundreds of millions of people than was true of the post-World War II recovery even despite the hyperconnectivity of global markets and populations today.Last year the World Bank warned that thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic for the first time in 20 years global poverty is on the rise. Between 2020 and 2021 an estimated additional 150 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty with daily income below $1.90 per day.The latest estimates based on modeling from QuERI back up the World Bank findings and show that in the post-COVID globalized order, persistent and growing poverty will set the stage for increasingly difficult social. economic, and political crises that will accompany climate change, food insecurity, and mass migration. The world has a short window to solve the problems that uncontrolled development in the decades of globalization has caused. Closing the gap for many of these poor countries is critical not just to their futures but to all.
Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues | Federal Debt Held by the Public
(7 December 2020) Vaccination campaigns, concerted health policies, and government financial support are expected to lift global GDP by 4.2 percent in 2021 after an estimated 4.2 percent decrease this year. The latest 2020 global GDP estimate is an upward revision even despite concerns expressed by the OECD in the June Economic Outlook that the world economy could contract to the tune of 6-8 percent depending on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. The OECD anticipates a stronger economic recovery in 2021 if vaccines roll out quickly, boosting confidence and lowering uncertainty.China will be the only country among the world's largest economies with a positive GDP growth rate in 2020 (1.8%) and is expected to surpass its economic peers again in 2021 with an 8 percent GDP growth rate.
(14 October 2020) The corona-crisis is different from past economic recessions in that it has touched all economies without exception. But if we look from economy to economy, we quickly observe that the economic consequences of the corona-crisis are far from uniform. To understand why, for example, GDP in Korea dropped just 2.8% YoY in Q2 2020 while India experienced a 23.9% YoY contraction, we collected key macroeconomic indicators for Q2 2020 for the world's 15 largest economies. At first blush the data was disappointing, because the economic strain appeared again to be rather heterogeneous across countries, with a spread of more than 20 percentage points of GDP growth. And, as expected, we found that GDP growth differences among countries could be explained by differences of household consumption and fixed capital investment growth rates, two GDP components that combined account for 70-90 percent of GDP. Where the macroeconomic data for Q2, what we consider to be the depth of the corona-crisis, is more revealing and in some cases counterintuitive is within those indicators driving consumption and investment behavior. Here were our key findings:The more stringent the COVID-19 restrictions imposed by governments, the more household consumption declined. A phenomenon we attributed to tighter restrictions leading to more job losses, less income.The service sector, overrepresented by small businesses, has suffered acutely during the pandemic because of restrictions on activities that involve person-to-person interactions. As result, economies with the larger share of services sector has been hit harder by pandemic.The efficiency of government fiscal stimulus programs, including money transfers and tax incentives, is inconsistent at best and somewhat counterintuitive in practice. For the United States, Japan, and Germany, stimulus programs appear to have prevented more severe economic downturns than were faced in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The data also reveals that the tighter the anti-covid restrictions, the less fiscal stimulus (as % of GDP) governments issued. (Japan is a case in point and one that we're interested in exploring further.) This phenomena can be partly explained by relatively higher costs of government borrowing in developing countries which imposed the more stringent restrictions compared to developed countries.We also found that in some cases exports were more resistant to external shocks than were imports. Exports in Russia and Brazil even grew slightly in Q2, which, combined with a decrease in imports, helped support those economies. Other factors, such as non official prohibitions to lay off employees and the share of the government sector in the economy, could also have played important supporting economic roles but these factors are hard to quantify and are not covered in this macroeconomic data collection.
Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues | Federal Debt Held by the Public
Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues| Federal Debt Held by the Public
(29 October 2020) If you've been following the latest forecasts from The Economist and Columbia University, Donald Trump has a small probability (3.5%) of winning the electoral college to be re-elected in November. The model is designed to predict the chances of winning the electoral-college on election day, as Trump did in 2016 even though he failed to win the popular vote, and currently gives Joe Biden an 96 percent probability of defeating Donald Trump and better than 19 in 20 chances of winning the popular vote. Reliability of polling data doesn't stop the polling and it's fascinating to follow along, particular with some players you may be less familiar with showing better predictive results. Look at the last election. Even in late October while early voters were casting their votes, the 2016 election polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 percentage points.Based on the latest poll averages in the current election from RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and The Economist, Joe Biden currently has a 1 to 11 percentage point advantage over Donald Trump. Political betting markets, such as PredictIt and Iowa Electronic Markets, also suggest a substantial advantage of Biden.The stock market, in turn, predicts that Donald Trump is poised for re-election.At the same time, RIWI—a company that offers predictive analytics and trend tracking—reveals that neither party has established a clear leadership position so far.
Medium Term Expenditure Framework, India - 2013 Medium-term Expenditure Framework Statement laid before Parliament as required under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003. Section 3 of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003 require the Government to place three Statements in both Houses of Parliament. This section has been amended to require the Government to lay a fourth statement viz. the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in both Houses of Parliament, immediately following the session of the Parliament in which the budget has been presented. The MTEF is to set forth a three-year rolling target for the expenditure indicators with specification of underlying assumptions and risks involved. The MTEF is essentially expected to be a vertical expansion of the expenditure projections in the MTEF Statement. The objecive of the MTEF is to provide closer integration between budget and the FRBM Statements. It also furthers the Government’s comitment towards fiscal consolidation.
This page presents forecasts of prices of various commodities: energy, food, agricultural raw materials, grains, fertilizers, metals including steel, platinum, lead, iron ore. It allows comparing projections for a specific commodity from different sources: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Food and Agriculture Organization. Price forecasts of critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil
(Data updated 15 April, 2020) Knoema's Forecast Tracking Tool is developed to define the best available source of forecast data for key economic indicators on a country-by-country basis. Only estimates from the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for economic Co-operation and Development, the World Bank, the United Nations and the European Commission are considered. Source accuracy is assessed on the basis of the calculated mean absolute error (MAE) of historical forecasts. Select a country from the drop down menu to view which agency provided the best historical forecast.
Size of U.S. Economy
In this dashboard, we have integrated the most recent medium and long-term forecasts of key economic indicators for G20 countries from major international organizations, namely, the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, OECD, European Commission and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The data presented covers projections of real GDP growth, characterizing each country's output of final goods and services; consumer price inflation, as a measure of price level movements; unemployment rate, or percent of those willing and able to work but cannot find it; current account balance, providing an idea of a country's position in the international exchange; and, government debt, showing the relative value of government liabilities, which could affect a country's stability and confidence level. Analysis, based on such cross-sectional data, gives a comprehensive picture of a country's performance in the "open-economy" conditions, which is becoming even more comprehensive with the use of a diverse collection of information sources. Each provider of forecasts makes its projections based on different assumptions concerning fiscal and monetary policies of the countries under review, interest and exchange rates, oil and non-oil commodity prices and so on. Taking all these factors into consideration could well help to build on even more robust future projections. For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page: Argentina | Australia | Brazil | Canada | China | EU | Euro Area | France | Germany | India | Indonesia | Italy | Japan | Mexico | Russia | Saudi Arabia | South Africa | South Korea | Turkey | UK Or, select an economic indicator: GDP forecast | inflation forecast | unemployment forecast | current account balance forecast | government debt forecast | short term economic profile
According to LINK Global Economic Outlook, published in June 2012, GDP of the European Union will not grow in 2012. In 2011 20% of the world GDP were produced in the European Union, which accounted for more than one third of world imports. It means that the recession in the European Union will inevitably cause the deceleration of the global economy.
Energy Consumption Outlook | Energy Production Outlook According to the long term projections of global energy markets elaborated by BP - one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies - global energy demand will rise by 41% between 2011 and 2035 but with gradually moderating pace. Moreover, major share (95%) of this growth will be ensured by the developing countries. Among all fuels, natural gas will contribute the most to the global energy demand growth, while demand for oil will continue to dominate in absolute terms. Concerning energy consumers, power generation sector is expected to account for more than a half (57%) of energy consumption growth whereas transport sector would be the slowest growing one, contributing only 13% to the global energy demand growth. That is mostly because of transport is gradually switching to the natural gas, electricity and biofuels, however being still dependent mostly on oil. What for energy supply, here emerging economies will also be the main drivers of growth, but not to such a big extent: United States will make its significant contribution to the global energy production due to rising shale gas and tight oil output. Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, January 2014
The population of China currently exceeds the population of India by approximately 70 million, according to estimates from the United Nations. The UN's World Population Prospects report puts the population of China at 1.38 billion, compared to 1.31 billion for India. Other sources' estimates of current population range from 1.37 to 1.40 billion for China and from 1.28 to 1.31 billion for India. Just as current population estimates differ, so do forecasts as to when the difference in the population between the two countries will level off.According to the United Nations', existing differences between the total population of the two countries will level off by 2022.The UN Food and Agriculture Organization gives a later date - 2024 - as do the OECD and UNCTAD, which predict 2028.In contrast, analysis from the World Bank suggests that India could outpace China as early as 2021, just 5 years from now. Global expectations that the Indian population will surpass that of China stem from these two countries belonging to different fertility groups. China is considered to be a "low fertility" country while India is generally considered an "intermediate fertility" country. India, like China, has already experienced a substantial decline in fertility as a result of the implementation of its National Family Planning Program in 1952, but the program did not lead to the same dramatic population changes as experienced under China's One-Child Policy. Other factors behind the anticipated rapid population growth in India are high illiteracy and poverty rates, immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal, and declining mortality rates. These same factors have already led India to outpace China in terms of total contribution to world population growth. During the period 2010-2015, the population of India increased by 16 million - the highest contribution of any country, accounting for 19% of the global population increase - while the population of China grew by 7 million. India is expected to continue to lead globally in contribution to population growth through 2050, followed by Nigeria. Various international agencies estimate that India's current growth rate is in the range of 1.2 to 1.32 percent, while China's is lower at about 0.46 to 0.56 percent. And although India's population growth rate is continuously declining - expected to drop below 1% by 2024 and below 0% threshold by 2069 - it is not expected to drop below China's growth rate during the next 100 years, virtually ensuring India's status as the world population leader for some time to come. Population of China | Population of India
The US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) recently published the "Seven Big Summits to Watch in 2016." The visualizations that follow use publicly available data to provide context about each event on the CFR list.
Ghana is expected to become the fastest-growing economy in the world with a GDP growth rate of 8.8 percent in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) GDP growth projections released on April 9, 2019. According to the IMF, Ghana’s macroeconomic performance has significantly improved during the last two years under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. The latest report also suggests growth was robust in the first three quarters of 2018 on the back of oil production.
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In a perfect world, where access to technology and the wealth are equally distributed, the GDP of each country would be proportional to its population. In the real world that relationship exists on average (see the dot charts below) but with significant deviations from the trend. Many developed countries, being relatively less populous than their developing counterparts, have high levels of GDP, while the GDPs of less-developed countries, especially in Africa, are disproportionally low.According to the UN DESA baseline scenario, by the year 2100 Africa will become the world's most populous region, accounting for 40 percent of the global population and replacing Asia as the key driver of global population growth.More than half of global population growth between 2015 and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa, and after 2050 Africa is projected to be the only major world region with a continually growing population.Nigeria is expected to remain the most populous African country, reaching 794 million in 2100, according to projections by the UN. The Democratic Republic of the Congo - one of the world's poorest countries - is expected to become the second most populous African country. Will the enormous population growth in African countries strengthen their economies and the wealth of their citizens, or will this growth only give rise to even greater poverty? "The answer depends on how each country responds today with policies" - the World Bank, October 2015. Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
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On April, International Monetary Fund released the new edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO). According to the updated estimates, global economic growth in 2018 will grow to 3.94 percent from 3.76 percent in 2017. This is a upward revision relative to the previous October's estimate in which world's GDP growth was expected to rise this year. Released twice a year, in October 2017 and April 2018, WEO contains projections of key economic and financial indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, the balance of payments, government finance, trade, and major commodity prices at the global level and in many countries. In the April edition of WEO, global economic growth was revised up mainly due to the subdued growth in advanced countries, especially in the United States and China. The growth of the U.S. GDP in 2018 will be 2.93 percentage points stronger than expected. More over, the growth of some developing economies was revised up. Thus, the growth in Russia in 2018 will be moree than it was estimated previously. The same is for the Brazilian economy, which will grow a bit more than was projected in April, and start to recover so far in 2018. Improvement of the forecast for the emerging economies is connected with better prospects of economic growth in China in the near-term and some strengthening of energy prices. Energy prices firming along with the removal of sanctions on Iran resulted in the upward revision of the republic's current account balance. While in April, current account balance of Iran was estimated to be 4 percent of GDP this year, in October's edition of WEO it turned positive to 4.28 percent of GDP.
Japan is the top country by median age of the total population in the world. As of 2015, the median age of Japan's population was 46.35 years. The top 5 countries also include Italy, Germany, Portugal, and Bulgaria. The median age of the population in Japan increased from 28.78 years in 1970 to 46.35 years in 2015 growing at an average annual rate of 5.45 %. The median age of the population is an age that divides the population in two parts of equal size, that is, there are as many persons with ages above the median as there are with ages below the median. It is expressed as years.
Between 1970 and 2015, the median age of the World's total population grew substantially from 21.54 to 29.6 years rising at an increasing annual rate that reached 3.90 % in 2015. By 2100, the median age is expected to further grow to 41.6 years.
Slated to kick off on April 29, the 162-day expo is poised to impress an estimated 16 million visitors from home and abroad with a huge collection of plants, flowers and eye-catching pavilions as well as ideas for green development. More than 110 countries and international organizations, as well as over 120 non-official exhibitors, have confirmed participation, which will make it the highest attendance in the expo's history. A corporate garden at Beijing Expo 2019, the Stone Home Garden perfectly integrates traditional Chinese cultural elements such as the Twelve Zodiac Animals and the Twelve Floral Goddesses, stone culture of China, and modern science and technology, showcasing the residential culture and life philosophy of contemporary Chinese people to the world and conveying people’s pursuit and aspiration for the theme “Live Green, Live Better” with China’s profound stone culture, bonsai art, tea culture and ancient residential architecture.
The education level of African countries significantly changed during the last 30 years. If in 1980, the highest average years of schooling attained was 5.5 years recorded in Mauritius, in 2015, this number increased to 10.3 years which was recorded in Botswana. The lowest value in 1980 was recorded in Mali (0.5 years). In 2015, the African country with the lowest average years of schooling attained became Niger (2.4 years). The percentage of the population with no schooling attained decreased from 1980 but is still high. Niger was the African country with the highest percentage of no schooling attained in 1980 (88.5%) and remained on its leading position in 2015 with 65.6%. Reunion island had the lowest percentage of the population with no schooling (18.8%) in 1980. As for 2015, the country with the least percentage of no schooling became Mauritius with 1.7%. In 2040, the average years of schooling attained is predicted to reach 12.35 years in Mauritius, 12.27 in Libya and 12.24 in Gabon - these countries are predicted to be the African leaders by this indicator. The percentage of the population without schooling is estimated to be the highest in Sudan (32.3%), Mali (31.7%), and Niger (29.5%) and the lowest in Zimbabwe (0.6%), Botswana (0.3%), and Mauritius (0.3%). Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
From 1980 to 2015, GDP per capita of the Middle East and North Africa has changed from $6,547 to $17,674. However, it has been replaced from the third to fifth place among other world regions. It is projected to remain in fifth place in 2020 with the value of $20,007. Among the African countries, Libya had the highest gross domestic product per capita of $27,978 in 1980 being replaced by Equatorial Guinea in 2015 with the GDP per capita of $43,260. Seychelles is predicted to become the leader of GDP per capita among all the African countries in 2020 with $33,297. Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
According to the UN DESA baseline scenario, the median age of the African population is projected to increase from 19.35 years in 2015 to 35.21 years in 2100. The highest growth of the median age of the population has been observed in two African regions since 1980-s: Southern Africa and Northern Africa. Population pyramid built for Africa in 2015 can be attributed to the expansive type of the pyramid which means that African countries are in the first stage of the demographic transition: expanding. This stage is characterized by the high birth rate, rapid fall in each upward age group due to high death rates and short life expectancy. Compared to Africa, more developed regions of the world correspond to the constrictive pyramid being in the third stage of the demographic transition with the decline of the birth rate and the death rate, slowing of the natural increase. Forecasts on the world population in the year 2100 provide the framework for demographic change expectations. Population pyramid of African countries is expected to correspond to the expanding type moving to the next stage of the demographic transition. More developed regions of the world are predicted to complete the demographic transition being in stage four characterized by low birth rate, low death rate, falling and then stable natural increase. The world population, in general, will correspond to the same stage. The African countries with the highest life expectancy at birth became Réunion, Mayotte and Algeria with 80.1, 80 and 76 years in 2015. Mayotte and Réunion are expected to remain the leaders in the life expectancy value in 2100 (92 years). Algeria will be replaced by Morocco with the life expectancy at birth equal to 89 years in 2100. Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
According to the medium fertility variant of UN DESA baseline scenario, African population density is predicted to reach 151 persons per square kilometre in 2100 while the estimated world average is predicted to be 86 persons per square kilometre. The most densely populated region is predicted to be Western Africa with 260 persons per square kilometre followed by Eastern Africa (237 persons per square kilometre) and Middle Africa (116 persons per square kilometre). Northern and Southern Africa regions are expected to be below the world average (60 and 35 persons per square kilometre).Burundi is expected to become the most densely populated African country, reaching the density of 2123 persons per square kilometre by 2100. The second most densely populated country in Africa in 2100 is projected to be Mayotte (1984 persons per square kilometre) and the third one - Comoros (1161 persons per square kilometre). Projected to remain the most populous African country in 2100, Nigeria expected to be the sixth densely populated country with a density of 872 persons per square kilometre. Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
According to the UN DESA baseline scenario, by 2100 Africa will become the world's most populous region in the world.The African population is predicted to reach 3.1 billion by 2100 according to the low fertility scenario, 4.5 billion - according to the medium variant, and 6.2 billion - according to the high variant.According to the medium fertility variant, the most populous region in 2100 will be Eastern Africa with 1.578 billion followed by Western Africa with 1.577 billion, and Middle Africa - with 0.8 billion. The least populous regions will be Northern Africa with 0.5 billion and Southern Africa with 0.09 billion.Nigeria is expected to remain the most populous African country, reaching 794 million in 2100, according to projections by the UN. The Democratic Republic of the Congo - one of the world's poorest countries - is expected to become the second most populous African country. The United Republic of Tanzania is expected to become the third most populous African country in 2100. Africa in Focus: Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education
Date of Event: 3-7 April 2017 Event Holder: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Description: A Population Commission was established by the Economic and Social Council in its resolution 3 (III) of 3 October 1946. In its resolution 49/128 of 19 December 1994, the General Assembly decided that the Commission should be renamed the Commission on Population and Development. In the same resolution, the Assembly decided that it, the Council and the Commission should constitute a three-tiered intergovernmental mechanism that would play the primary role in the follow-up to the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, and that the Commission, as a functional commission assisting the Council, would monitor, review and assess the implementation of the Programme of Action at the national, regional and international levels and advise the Council thereon. The Commission is composed of 47 Member States elected by the Economic and Social Council for a period of four years on the basis of geographic distribution. Representatives should have a relevant background in population and development. It met typically every two or three years until 1994, after which it has met once a year.
Actual Demand for Finished Steel Forecasted Demand for Finished Steel
Source: Economic Outlook No 95 - Long-term Baseline Projections, 2014
ASEAN 10 countries : Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Brunei, MyanMar
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is a forum for the travel and tourism industry - one of the world’s largest economic sectors, contributing trillions of dollars annually to the global economy, creating jobs and wealth, generating exports, boosting taxes and stimulating capital investment. WTCC is made up of members from the global business community and works with governments to raise awareness about the travel and tourism industry. It is known for being the only forum to represent the private sector in all parts of the industry worldwide. Its activities include research on the economic and social impact of the industry and its organisation of global and regional summits focused on issues and developments relevant to the tourism. The WTTC performs and publishes research in conjunction with Oxford Economics on the economic and social impact of the travel and tourism industry. The foundation of the WTTC’s research activity is a set of annually produced Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Reports. These include a global report as well as 24 regional and 184 country reports. The reports calculate the economic impact of the industry including the direct and total GDP impacts, direct and indirect employment, investment, and exports. Using models based on Tourism Satellite Accounting, the Council also reports the forecasts for these impacts. In this page you can explore the WTCC data with the Knoema's interactive visual gadgets. Select the indicator and the measurement level from the list at the top of the page to see the map and country ranking. Choose the country or region on the bubbletree to see the time-series of the chosen indicator since 1995 and the WTCC projections to 2027. Source: World Travel and Tourism Council Data, 2017
Canada is proud to host the 2018 G7 Summit in Charlevoix. This vibrant region captures everything that our country is about – from bilingualism, to cultural diversity, to stunning scenery in every season. I look forward to welcoming my counterparts this year in beautiful Charlevoix. I’m sure they will fall in love with the region, just as Canadians have done for generations. Event date: 8-9 June 2018 Location: Canada The Nuclear Security Summit | UN General Assembly Special Session on the World Drug Problem | World Humanitarian Summit | Group of Seven Summit | Group of Twenty Summit | Habitat III | Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database, October 2017
Population Dynamics | Fertility | Mortality | Age Structure The World Bank has published the 2017 edition of its dataset: "Population Estimates and Projections." This database presents population and other demographic estimates and projections for the period 1960 to 2050. The data are disaggregated by age-group and gender and cover approximately 200 economies. The data also include information about fertility, mortality, and population by age. The world population will increase by approximately 30 percent during the next 35 years, from 7.3 billion to 9.5 billion people, according to the World Bank. African countries will experience the highest rates of growth. The World Bank data indicates, however, that by the middle of the 21st century India will become the most populated country in the world. In contrast, China's total population is expected to contract slightly by 2050 compared to the 2017 total.
The 2017 G20 Hamburg summit will be the twelfth meeting of the Group of Twenty (G20). It will be held on 7–8 July 2017 in the city of Hamburg, Germany. The Nuclear Security Summit | UN General Assembly Special Session on the World Drug Problem | World Humanitarian Summit | Group of Seven Summit | Group of Twenty Summit | Habitat III | Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Humanity is not going to go extinct. They are going to be massive and ever-growing numbers of people in dire need for the foreseeable future. The World is growing at an amazing rate. The operation of our present industrial civilization is wholly dependent on access to a very large amount of energy of various types. If the availability of this energy were to decline significantly it could have serious repercussions for civilization and the human population it supports.
Crude Oil - A naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits. Crude Oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. Oil is traded in the US Currency, a strong dollar makes it more expensive for International investors, dampening demand. "The combination of elevated stockpiles in the US and increasing production from OPEC, sluggish demand growth, and a stronger US (dollar) would continue to pressure oil prices", said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG markets in Singapore. As we see in the current market, the crude oil has declined in this year. So, does this decline happens for longer period. We found that there will be a greater impact in the following years, where the price trend increases for the oil based on the World Bank Commodity Price Forecast Data, July 2015.
Each year several influential global agencies publish their views on the economic situation in the world. We have collected end-of-year baseline forecasts of the 5 largest agencies (IMF, World Bank, OECD, UN and the European Commission) for each available country since 1998 into the one dataset. In this page, you can observe forecasts for 2014-2017, which were made by each of those agencies in previous years, and analyze the accuracy of the forecasts from the historical perspective. It is hard to believe, but the data clearly shows that even the near-term forecasts were not considerably better than the simplest possible forecasting technique of using actual value for the current year to forecast the next year changes. Actually, in most cases this deadly simple and straightforward "rule of thumb" performed better than the forecasts of the global authorities (see the chart at the bottom of the page). However, it would be wrong to conclude that they are completely useless. It looks like when the agency's forecast differs from the previous year actual value significantly - it really means something. For example, in the end of 2009, all five organizations have correctly predicted the large economic rebound, which could not be forecasted only on the 2009-th numbers basis. Dive deeper in the economic forecasts with our Forecast Tracking Tool.
12 Sept - On Friday, Goldman Sachs slashed its oil price forecast for 2016 from $62/bbl to $49.5/bbl for the international benchmark Brent crude oil and from $57/bbl to $45/bbl for WTI crude, allowing for a short-term price decline to 20 US$/bbl. The sharp revision has attracted considerable media attention, however, Goldman's outlook for 2017 remained unchanged. According to Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, oil market oversupply has already peaked in Q2 2015 and will gradually decline in the coming months to reach a deficit of 305,000 b/d by the end of 2016. Sources: GS Oil Supply And Demand Estimates And Price Forecasts, September 2015, IMF Commodity Price Forecasts, July 2015, EIU Economic and Commodity Forecast, July 2015, World Bank Commodity Forecast Price data, July 2015, IEA Oil Market Report, 2016, Oil Supply and Demand: OPEC Estimates And Projections, August 2015
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
The South African economy exhibited weak quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth earlier this year and faces high and rising unemployment, weak domestic demand, and falling market prices on key export commodities. Accelerated growth is on the horizon for South Africa, however, according to consensus forecasts of multiple major international agencies, even if at a slower rate than other large sub-saharan African economies. African countries collectively are expected to be the most rapidly growing economies worldwide during the next five years.South Africa is currently the third largest African economy by GDP (ppp) following Nigeria and Egypt and is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.6 percent during each of the next five years.In contrast, Nigeria, the continent's largest economy, has an expected annual average rate of 1.96 percent during the same period, according to the IMF. It will be interesting to monitor South Africa's official growth statistics through the end of the year. During the period 2012-2014, the South African economy followed this same growth pattern, but expectations of the major international agencies were too high, based on analysis from Knoema's Forecast Tracking Tool. The World Bank, IMF and OECD consistently overestimated South Africa's real GDP growth by 0.6 to 2.0 percentage points since 2011. Explore forecasts from Knoema Economic Insight or examine the accuracy of major international agency forecasts with our Forecast Tracking Tool. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015,World Bank Global Economic Monitor, August 2015, Accuracy of Economic Forecasts, May 2015
The World Energy Outlook is the International Energy Agency's annual flagship publication that provides long-term projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, by fuel and by region, under several policy scenarios*. These projections currently extend to 2040. WEO-2015 presents three main scenarios that are differentiated by their energy and climate policy assumptions, with the future energy picture that they portray varying significantly, and introduces a forth in this latest edition:The New Policies Scenario – the central scenario – describes a pathway for energy markets based on the continuation of existing policies and measures, as well as the cautious implementation of announced policy proposals, even if they are yet to be formally adopted.The Current Policies Scenario only takes into account those policies that were enacted as of midyear 2015, and therefore offers a baseline against which to assess the impact of new policies.The 450 Scenario is an outcome-oriented scenario, illustrating an energy trajectory consistent with a 50 percent chance of limiting the long-term increase in average global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (°C), the internationally agreed global climate goal.In addition, WEO-2015 presents the new Low Oil Price Scenario, which assesses the implications of a prolonged period of low global oil prices on markets, policies, investment, the fuel mix, and emissions. Global energy demand increases in all WEO scenarios, but government policies play a powerful role in dictating the degree of growth and the degree to which energy-related emissions decouple from energy use. Overall, new energy and climate policies – either those that have been announced or those that are prescribed to meet the world’s climate goal – serve to restrain the pace at which energy demand grows and to weaken, or break (in the case of the 450 Scenario), the link between growth in energy demand and in energy-related emissions, a crucial consideration for COP21.For example, World primary energy demand is projected to grow by 45 percent by 2040 compared to 2013 demand in the Current Policies Scenario, 32 percent in the New Policies Scenario, and 12 percent in the 450 Scenario with all of the net growth coming from non-OECD countries and OECD demand ending 3 percent lower in 2040.Shifting to global emissions, the Current Policies Scenario sees the growth in energy related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions averaging 1.2 percent per year over the Outlook period, maintaining a broadly consistent pace through to 2040. The growth in emissions is much slower in the New Policies Scenario, but total emissions still fail to peak by 2040. In both scenarios, therefore, the world moves further away from achieving its agreed 2°C climate goal, but at differing speeds. In the 450 Scenario, the long-standing trend of increasing energy-related CO2 emissions is quickly halted and emissions then decline by more than 2 percent per year (on average) to around 19 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2040. Moving to oil, markets expect oil prices to head higher as markets work off the current excess supply, but risks remain. The process of adjustment in the oil market is rarely a smooth one, but, in the IEA's Central Scenario, the market rebalances at $89/bbl in 2020, with further increases in price thereafter. Demand picks up to 2020, adding an average of 900 kb/d per year, but the subsequent rise to 103.5 mb/d in 2040 is moderated by higher prices, efforts to phase out subsidies (provided that momentum behind reform is maintained, even as oil prices pick up), efficiency policies, and switching to alternative fuels. Collectively, the United States, EU and Japan see their oil demand drop by around 10 mb/d by 2040. On the supply side, the decline in current upstream spending, estimated at more than 20 percent in 2015, results in the combined production of non-OPEC producers peaking before 2020 at just above 55 mb/d. Other highlights:The single largest energy demand growth story of recent decades is near its end; coal use in China will reach its plateau, close to today’s levels, as the country’s economy rebalances and industrial coal demand falls.India seizes the centre of the world energy stage, contributing the single largest share of growth, around one-quarter, in global energy demand to 2040. India's total energy demand is approaching the US level, led by surging demand for coal in power generation and industry, even though it's per capita consumption is 40 percent below the world average.An annual $630 billion in worldwide upstream oil and gas investment – the total amount the industry spent on average each year for the past five years – is required just to compensate for declining production at existing fields and to keep future output flat at today’s levels. Without additional policy efforts, low oil prices could lock in a less efficient and less climate-friendly capital stock that leads to higher long-term emissions, according to the IEA.Renewables is moving from a niche to a mainstream fuel. Global renewables-based electricity generation increases by some 8,300 TWh (more than half of the increase in total generation), equivalent to the output of all of today’s fossil-fuel generation plants in China, the European Union, and the United States combined. Renewables collectively account for 34 percent of the projected primary energy demand growth for all fuels. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015. For detailed discussion see the WEO-2015 publications on IEA web site. * see the definitions at the bottom of this page Overview Regional trends Oil and gas supply investment Fossil-fuel subsidies and renewable energy outlook
Overview Regional trends Oil and gas supply investment Fossil-fuel subsidies and renewable energy outlook Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015. For detailed discussion see the WEO-2015 publications on IEA web site.
Overview Regional trends Oil and gas supply investment Fossil-fuel subsidies and renewable energy outlook Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015. For detailed discussion see the WEO-2015 publications on IEA web site
Overview Regional trends Oil and gas supply investment Fossil-fuel subsidies and renewable energy outlook Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015. For detailed discussion see the WEO-2015 publications on IEA web site.
Dataset: Global AgeWatch Index 2015 Source: http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/
Energy Consumption Outlook | Energy Production Outlook According to the long term projections of global energy markets elaborated by BP - one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies - global energy demand will rise by 41% between 2011 and 2035 but with gradually moderating pace. Moreover, major share (95%) of this growth will be ensured by the developing countries. Among all fuels, natural gas will contribute the most to the global energy demand growth, while demand for oil will continue to dominate in absolute terms. Concerning energy consumers, power generation sector is expected to account for more than a half (57%) of energy consumption growth whereas transport sector would be the slowest growing one, contributing only 13% to the global energy demand growth. That is mostly because of transport is gradually switching to the natural gas, electricity and biofuels, however being still dependent mostly on oil. What for energy supply, here emerging economies will also be the main drivers of growth, but not to such a big extent: United States will make its significant contribution to the global energy production due to rising shale gas and tight oil output. Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, January 2014
Population Population is one of the biggest of all the problems of India. Survey says world's 33% poor lives in India. Approx. 20 crore people will not get food. Unemployment Almost 10% of the Indians are unemployed.Creating new job is very difficult when population grows 20% a decade. Source : http://knoema.com/INDPRLB2015/midyear-population-2015
The US Deparment of Agriculture's 10-year international projections cover supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural crops and meats for selected countries and global totals. The projections provide foreign-country detail supporting USDA’s long-term projections released in February each year. According to USDA, over the next several years, the agricultural industry will adjust to lower prices for most farm commodities. Lower prices will likely lead to reductions in planted acerage. Lower feed costs will also provide economic incentives for expansion of livestock production, although increased beef output will be delayed by beef cow inventory and biological factors. Following those near-term adjustments, long-run developments for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued global demand for biofuel feedstocks. Those factors combine to support longer-run increases in consumption, trade, and the prices of agricultural products. Reflecting these market adjustments and price projections, the USDA expects export values to decline globally in 2015 and farm cash receipts fall in 2015-16 before both grow over the rest of the projection period. USDA’s long-term projections are based on a conditional scenario that assumes current US farm legislation will remain in effect through the projection period, there are no shocks to the US or global economies or agricultural industries, and global weather is normal. Specific assumptions also are made for the macroeconomy and other countries’ policies. The projections are prepared in October through December each year, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis. Source: USDA Agricultural Projections - 2015 International Long-Term Projections to 2024 Browse by Commodity Browse by Country
According to the UN, the world's urban population will increase by about 60 percent by 2050, from 4 million people in 2015 to 6.3 million in 2050. In other words, by 2050, the UN expects that two out of three people in the world will live in an urban area. In contrast, during the early part of the twentieth century the majority of the world's population lived in rural areas. Some countries will remain rural population dominant, particularly in Africa. However, the UN expects that Africa will experience the fastest increase in urbanization, from 40 percent of the total population in 2015 to 56 percent in 2050. The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs Population Division has issued biennial estimates and projections of urban and rural populations by country and major urban agglomerations since 1988. The World Urbanization Prospects reports are used widely by international organizations, research centers, and the media. The UN 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects web site provides the main findings of the 2015 Revision, which are consistent with its total population projections, by country, as published in the 2014 Revision. Source: World Urbanization Prospects
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Energy Production Forecast | Energy Consumption Forecast Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
Natural Gas | Oil | Coal | Renewables Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
Natural Gas | Oil | Coal | Renewables Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
Natural Gas | Oil | Coal | Renewables Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
Natural Gas | Oil | Coal | Renewables Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
Energy Production Forecast | Energy Consumption Forecast Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
According to the new BP Energy Outlook report, despite the dramatic recent weakening in global energy markets, ongoing economic expansion in Asia – particularly in China and India – will drive continued growth in the world’s demand for energy over the next 20 years. Global demand for energy is expected to rise by 32% from 2015 to 2035, or by an average of 1.2% a year. The renewables and biofuels will be the fastest growing energy sectors next 20 years in relative terms. As expected by BP, the overall growth of the demand for renewables from 2015 to 2035 will be about 240% and 93% for biofuels. By 2020, the United States will become net energy donor and by 2030 the overall energy production in the US will exceed its consumption by more than 200 mln tonnes of oil equivalent per year. On the contrary, largest Asian economies will increase their energy deficit and energy imports significantly, becoming the world largest net energy importers by 2035. The Energy Outlook 2035 projects that demand for oil will increase by around 0.8% each year to 2035. The rising demand comes entirely from the non-OECD countries; oil consumption within the OECD peaked in 2005 and by 2035 is expected to have fallen to levels not seen since 1986. By 2035 China is likely to have overtaken the US as the largest single consumer of oil globally. Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015
World Bank in its recent "Global Economy Prospects" report cut global economy outlook for 2015-2017. But forecast for US economy was raised: from 3.0% (Jun-14 forecast) to 3.2% growth in 2015 and 2.88% annual average growth rate in next 3 years (which corresponds to 8.9% overall growth from now to end of 2017). Also, outlook for India, Pakistan and Egypt was improved. The main decrease occurred in the outlook for the developing non-OECD economies and Euro area. Highest cuts were made for Russia, Argentina, Iran, Brazil, South Africa. See how World Bank's forecasts evolved from year ago on the graph by selecting desired country or region from the list at the top of the page
According to African Economic Outlook (AEO), released at the end of May, 2012, African economy will perform solid and stable expansion in 2012-2013. AEO projects that economic growth in Africa will accelerate to 4.5% in 2012 and even to 4.8% in 2013. Among the largest African economies Nigeria, Angola and Ethiopia will show booming (7% and above) GDP growth rates. Click on any country in the table to see its GDP growth rates during 2003-2011 and projections for 2012-2013.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook unless otherwise noted
Today energy deeply entered all spheres of human lives so that further economic and social development requires strong and reliable energy supply. ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy report shed some light on the future advancement of global energy framework by estimating energy supply and demand indicators up to the year 2040. Below you can find interactive infographics presenting key findings of this report.
Charts below illustrate current insight of the future economic development of the major countries across main economic and financial indicators by the proven international agencies. Concerning United States, its real GDP growth is expected to recover in 2014 after a slowdown in 2013, levelling off on 2.6-2.4% up to 2018 according to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). IMF, meanwhile, is inclined to more positive forecast of 3.07% in 2018. Canada is expected to follow resembling tendency with its GDP growth rising from 1.6 to 2.2% over the same period. On the contrary, Japanese economic growth will decrease gradually from 1.7 to 1% during the period from 2013 to 2018 in accordance to the EIU projections. US GDP growth is expected to be accompanied by modest CPI inflation rate which will rise by somewhat 0.8%, while unemployment rate is going to shrink by almost 2% by the 2018. Rising inflation will affect current account balance a bit which will follow general downward tendency over the forecast period achieving -2.96% of GDP in 2018 mostly due to the increase in imports of goods and services. At the same time, capital outflows will decrease slightly by 2015 because of rising long-term interest rates. Sources: EIU Economic and Commodity Forecast, December 2013 (EIU)| World Bank Global Economic Prospects, March 2014 (WB)| IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014 (IMF)| United Nations LINK Global Economic Outlook, October 2013 (UN)| Annual Macro-Economic Database, March 2014 (European Comission, EC)| OECD Economic Outlook No 94, November 2013 (OECD).
Despite progress in addressing key fiscal weaknesses in many countries, significant policy challenges remain in advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, and must be faced in an environment where downside risks to growth have increased. Many advanced economies face very large adjustment needs to reduce risks related to high debt ratios. The appropriate pace of adjustment in the short run will depend, for each country, on the intensity of the market pressure it confronts, the magnitude of the risks to growth it faces, and the credibility of its medium-term program. Data from IMF.
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The Cisco Global Cloud Index is an ongoing effort to forecast the growth of global data center and cloud-based IP traffic. The forecast includes trends associated with data center virtualization and cloud computing. Forecast Overview Global data center traffic: ● Annual global data center IP traffic will reach 7.7 zettabytes by the end of 2017. By 2017, global data center IP traffic will reach 644 exabytes per month (up from 214 exabytes per month in 2012). ● Global data center IP traffic will nearly triple over the next 5 years. Overall, data center IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 percent from 2012 to 2017. Data center virtualization and cloud computing transition: ● The ratio of workloads to non-virtualized traditional servers will increase from 1.7 in 2012 to 2.3 by 2017. ● The ratio of workloads to non-virtualized cloud servers will increase from 6.5 in 2012 to 16.7 by 2017. ● By 2017, nearly two-thirds of all workloads will be processed in the cloud. Global cloud traffic: ● Annual global cloud IP traffic will reach 5.3 zettabytes by the end of 2017. By 2017, global cloud IP traffic will reach 443 exabytes per month (up from 98 exabytes per month in 2012). ● Global cloud IP traffic will increase nearly 4.5-fold over the next 5 years. Overall, cloud IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 35 percent from 2012 to 2017. ● Global cloud IP traffic will account for more than two-thirds of total data center traffic by 2017. Source: Global Cloud Index
Education Levels by Estimate Type (Value) | Education Levels by Estimate Type (%) | Estimate Types by Education Level (Value) | Estimate Types by Education Level (%) Present dashboard is aimed at providing comprehensive visual analysis of the dataset developed on the basis of the research "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050" (Samir KC et al., 2010) (http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol22/15/22-15.pdf). The full dataset is available through the link below. The four categories of educational attainment are based on International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED 1997). They are: no education (E1) - no formal education or less than one year primary; primary (E2) - uncompleted primary, completed primary (ISCED 1), and uncompleted lower secondary; secondary (E3) - completed lower secondary (ISCED 2), uncompleted and completed higher secondary (ISCED 3/4), and uncompleted tertiary education; tertiary (E4) - completed tertiary education (ISCED 5/6). Education scenarios illustrate different situations resulting from various policy environments and trends of global human capital. Constant enrollment number (CEN) is a worst-case variant, which assumes that the number of population groups by gender transiting from one education level to another remains constant over time. Constant enrollment ratio (CER) scenario is similar to the previous one but instead of constant number of population groups it assumes constant proportion of population groups by gender. In the global education trend (GET) scenario future development of a country's education level is based on historical global trend. The fast-track (FT) scenario, which is, in contrast to CEN, an optimistic one, assumes that countries accelerate rate of growth of educational development if they do not meet certain stated targets in attainment by certain years. Source: Reconstruction and Projection of Populations by Age, Sex and Level of Educational Attainment, 1970-2050
OECD in its Economic Outlook No 94 has revised short-term GDP growth forecast on 2014. As a result, GDP growth forecast of 54% of countries under review (23 of 42) has been decreased as well as the world average forecast which reduced by 0.4% from 4.02% to 3.62%. The most dramatic decrease in forecasted value of GDP growth has been made over India: forecast has been slumped by 1.66% from its last forecast of 6.39%. So, now India is expected to grow by 4.73% in 2014. Among other leaders of down-revision are Estonia, Brazil, South Africa and Russian Federation showing that OECD is pessimistic over developing economies' future growth. On the other hand, developed economies such as United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, Japan and United States are expected to grow faster than it was predicted before. All in all, it seems that developing world is expected to slow down, while developed countries are expected to recover steadily. Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 93, June 2013 (X-Axis); OECD Economic Outlook No 94, November 2013 (Y Axis).
Historical Statistics 1950-2012, Population by Country, Life Expectancy, Fertility, Mortality, Median Age, Population Density, Sex Ratio, Migration
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (Updated: 28 June 2011)
Population of the 20 most populous countries in 1950, 2010, 2050 and 2100 (millions) In 2100 ten out of the twenty most populous countries will be in Africa. Nigeria will be the third most populous country replacing the United States of America.
Select your country in the drop-down window above
Database: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (Updated: 28 June 2011)