Knoema.com - Economy http://knoema.fr 2024-03-19T10:56:48Z /favicon.png Knoema est votre Route du savoir personnelle The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States //knoema.fr/fsvntfc/the-world-s-largest-economy-china-vs-united-states 2024-03-19T10:56:48Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of an economy’s size and performance, to be more inclusive of economic factors that have been ignored to date, such as environmental and natural resource depletion, there is no commonly accepted alternative to GDP. There are, however, at least two commonly used approaches to cross-country comparisons of GDP. Method 1 - Current exchange rates. The GDP of two economies measured in each country’s national currency can be compared by converting the value of each GDP into a common third currency, such as US dollars, based on the current exchange rate. While the more popular approach, it is flawed. Official exchange rates differ from the real value of national currencies because currencies are not only exchanged to buy and sell goods and services in trade but are also used as investment instruments. As investment tools, currency valuations thus fall prey to speculation and irrational expectations of investors versus pure market fundamentals that are the basis for official rates. Example. Based on the current ¥/$ exchange rate, if a bottle of Coca-Cola costs $1 in the United States it would cost ¥6.63 in China. Only, it wouldn't actually cost that much because the real value of the yuan relative to the dollar differs from the official exchange rate. Method 2 - Purchasing power parity. Alternatively, the values of the national currencies of two economies can be converted to a single international currency — known as international dollars — using purchasing power parities (PPPs). PPPs are essentially the currency conversion rates that eliminate differences in price levels between countries and equalize the purchasing power of different countries. It is calculated as the ratio of the price of the same good in different countries in local currencies.  Example. If a bottle of Coca-Cola costs ¥3.5 in China and $1 in the United States then the PPP for Coca-Cola between these countries is ¥3.5/$1 = 3.5. If you calculate the PPP for every good and service produced and average the values, you can calculate the PPP for the GDPs between two countries. Let’s return then to the question of whether the US or China has a larger economy. According to the IMF, in 2019, the PPP between China and the US was ¥3.5 per international dollar. As such, China’s GDP of ¥95.5 trillion would be worth $27.3 trillion in the United States (¥74.6/3.5). That’s $5.9 trillion, or nearly 28 percent, more than the US GDP of $21.4 trillion in 2019. So, to answer the original question, China is the world's largest economy, followed by the United States ... if you compare GDPs based on PPP.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
GDP Forecast for next 5 years //knoema.fr/swxrsj/gdp-forecast-for-next-5-years 2024-02-08T12:09:21Z Balaji S knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000220
GDP Forecast for next 5 years

Balaji S knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000220
World GDP //knoema.fr/sxesqmf/world-gdp 2024-01-25T13:53:13Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
World GDP

In 2017, the world's nominal GDP was estimated at $80,051 billion by the International Monetary Fund, up by 5.8 percent from the previous year. So, the global economy rebounds from a 5.4% decline of 2015. Moreover, according to IMF's World Economic Outlook, in 2018, economic activity is projected to pick up the pace to grow by 6 percent. In real terms, global GDP growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7%, unchanged from 2017.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita ranking

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Haitian Gourde Rate //knoema.fr/dyaippg/haitian-gourde-rate 2023-11-09T13:09:24Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Haitian Gourde Rate

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
India - Uzbekistan Trade Relation //knoema.fr/klmlohb/india-uzbekistan-trade-relation 2023-11-09T13:06:32Z Anil Kumar TN knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1563900
India - Uzbekistan Trade Relation

India and Uzbekistan has a great relationship from ancient roots. On July 6th 2015, our honarable and his excellency Prime Minister Narendra Modi ji built a strategic partnership on the foundation of  mutual respect and shared interests, which includes expanding economic cooperation, combating terrorism, advancing stability in the region and promoting regional integration during the joint press briefing with President of Uzbekistan at Tashkent.   The below presentation shows the status and trade relation between India and Uzbekistan.

Anil Kumar TN knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1563900
World GDP Ranking 2020 | GDP by Country | Data and Charts //knoema.fr/fxmgjjf/world-gdp-ranking-2020-gdp-by-country-data-and-charts 2023-11-09T13:06:08Z Helena Mak knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1486960
World GDP Ranking 2020 | GDP by Country | Data and Charts

The list of countries by GDP showed on this page is based on the latest data from the World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund. 192 countries from around the world are ranked by GDP measured in US dollars and PPPs from 1980 to 2020. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the economic size of a country. It shows the total value of all goods and services sold in a country within a particular period of time. One may want to compare countries by GDP to understand which countries are "richest" or have larger markets, i.e. where more goods and services are sold and bought. To make international comparisons possible, GDP should be converted into a single currency because initially, all countries report their GDP in different national currencies. Conversion can be made using current exchange rates or Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs). The world's 10 largest economies in 2020 as measured in US dollars using current exchange rates are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, India, France, Italy, Canada, and Korea. Using current exchange rates to convert national currencies to US dollars is popular because data on exchange rates are easily accessible but it has a significant drawback. Using current exchange rates for country comparisons by GDP is not correct because exchange rates are often significantly overestimated or underestimated compared to their "correct levels". Correct exchange rate, in turn, should equalize the price levels in two countries. To make it clear, let's assume that the US and Russia, for example,  produce only one Big Mac a year each. So, their GDP should be the same and should equal the cost of the Big Mac. Due to the difference in price levels, it costs 130 Rubles in Russia and 6$ in the US. So, the "correct" conversion rate equalizing price levels should be 22 Rubles per 1 USD. Using this conversion rate, the GDP of Russia and the US will be the same and will equal $6 dollars. However, if we use the current exchange rate of 63 rubles per dollar, Russia GDP will be only $2. The conversion rate which equalizes the prices in the two countries is known as the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). According to this measure, the 10 largest economies in the world are China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and France. So, based on PPPs, the Chinese economy is bigger than the US economy.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Helena Mak knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1486960
Inflation Rankings by Country //knoema.fr/ammmpyg/inflation-rankings-by-country 2023-11-09T13:00:43Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Inflation Rankings by Country

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Monetary //knoema.fr/zbkqsm/monetary 2023-11-09T13:00:41Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Monetary

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
OECD Confirms Energy Expenditure at Critical Levels //knoema.fr/gwbreud/oecd-confirms-energy-expenditure-at-critical-levels 2023-06-10T16:24:48Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
OECD Confirms Energy Expenditure at Critical Levels

(November 2022) Estimated expenditures on energy – oil, natural gas, coal and electricity – have risen sharply this year putting many countries at risk of recession.Fluctuations in the share of energy expenditures in total spending are closely associated with cyclical changes in economic activity. With energy an important input for firms, a rise in energy prices typically lowers output and raises the price level. Higher energy prices also erode the purchasing power of households: when energy prices surge, energy expenditures tend to increase, crowding out other spending.During the past five decades, OECD-wide recessions have – with the exception of the COVID-19 recession in 2020 – only occurred when the ratio of energy expenditures to GDP has been at a high level (always at least 13%) and rising. The rapid rise in estimated OECD-wide energy expenditures this year, to around 17% of GDP, is a warning signal about the near-term risk of widespread recessions among OECD economies.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Energy Transition Puts High Economic Burden on Low-Income Fossil Fuel Exporters //knoema.fr/aoolhof/energy-transition-puts-high-economic-burden-on-low-income-fossil-fuel-exporters 2023-05-18T13:06:33Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Energy Transition Puts High Economic Burden on Low-Income Fossil Fuel Exporters

(6 April 2021) With the United States' reentry into the Paris Agreement and the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan that aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the US economy, the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is gaining momentum. While every nation stands to benefit from prevention of excessive global warming, growth of the green economy can also mean economic losses for many fossil fuel exporters.According to data from the World Bank, today there are more than fifty countries where fossil fuel resource rents contribute to more than 1% of GDP. This list includes the forty largest net fossil fuel exporters. In more than a dozen countries, fossil fuel rents constitute more than 20% of GDP.Since the transition to renewables will reduce global fossil fuel consumption, economies that depend heavily on fossil fuel exports will feel the greatest impact from the loss of resource rent. Fossil fuels exporters with low per capita income are likely to suffer the most because of the lack of resources and human capital to boost investments in new sectors of the economy.The fossil fuel exporters most vulnerable to energy transition are those with GDP per capita of $20 thousand or less and fossil fuel rents exceeding 10% of GDP. This group, which can be found in the upper left of the chart below, consists of fourteen economies: eight African countries (Nigeria, the largest African economy, is among them), Iraq, three former Soviet republics, and Mongolia.Given the persistent political instability in many of these countries, the new climate policy and global energy transition may introduce additional risk for unrest and conflict.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Wages and the Famous Big Mac: How Far Does Your Income Go? //knoema.fr/dybnzpe/wages-and-the-famous-big-mac-how-far-does-your-income-go 2023-04-15T10:59:47Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Wages and the Famous Big Mac: How Far Does Your Income Go?

It sounds like a riddle: how many Big Macs for your entire daily wage? Granted, many of our readers may not even have access to a Big Mac where they live (not to mention those who wouldn’t buy Big Macs if they were vegetarian, among other reasons). So, why is the Big Mac Index from the Economist a well-known concept around the world? It’s simple: Big Macs are easier for the overwhelming majority of the world’s population to understand as opposed to economic concepts like “GDP per capita in purchasing power parities,” which is a mouthful and a complicated concept. The answer to the riddle of course depends on many factors, including where you live. In the United States, the home of the Big Mac, the average daily wage would afford you 33 burgers. That’s a lot of burgers. And, yet, in Australia, you could get 40 Big Macs despite the fact that the GDP per capita in the US is roughly $10,000 higher than in Australia.Let’s venture to a lesser developed country with far lower average earnings: Pakistan. In Pakistan, local average daily wages would not even get you two Big Macs. You get the idea. Traditional metrics, like GDP per capita in purchasing power parities (PPPs), may give a sense for the economic well-being of populations but they also require training to interpret: what exactly does it mean, or does it even matter, that the difference in GDP per capita between the US and Australia is $10,000? It would be more straightforward to think in terms of how many goods - Big Macs or otherwise - a person could purchase with his or her wage. In the case of the Big Mac Index, simply divide the average daily earnings of each country’s workers by the local price of a Big Mac, and compare. You’ve now accounted for differences in price levels and mean earnings and you have a measure that is friendlier to interpretation to the masses. What’s lacking?A Big Mac is a single product (good) versus a basket of goods that would better approximate real consumption. No one claims a Big Mac measure should replace traditional metrics such as GDP per capita. Life simply is more complicated than that. We cannot directly compare GDP per capita and the number of Big Macs per day because GDP includes not only compensation of employees, but also net profit of corporations and taxes, for example. But, for today, let’s indulge. In our visualizations below you can examine the economic performance of a variety of countries based on local Big Mac prices as well as traditional economic measures. We’ve also introduced a bit more complexity with the addition of the concept of the relative productivity of workers. In general, as you will see below, workers' Big Mac purchasing power is positively correlated with worker productivity, measured in GDP per employee.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Country Snapshot: Pakistan at Risk of Default //knoema.fr/cshniud/country-snapshot-pakistan-at-risk-of-default 2023-04-14T10:57:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Country Snapshot: Pakistan at Risk of Default

Pakistan is facing a serious debt crisis similar to foreign exchange shortage problems that has plagued its South Asian neighbour Sri Lanka this year. The recent rise in commodity and energy prices have exacerbated Pakistan's debt problems. Pakistan has been struggling to pay for its imports as its official liquid foreign exchange reserves have shrunk $8.2 billion over the last 12 months to $10.7 billion in July 2022.In July, Pakistan’s CPI inflation soared to 21.3% year-over-year, according to the IMF data. Through January-July 2022 Pakistan rupee lost 14 % of its value against US dollar.To bring back inflation and archive fiscal stability government have taken off subsidies from fuel and power prices, raised taxes and tightened monetary policy. Loans from IMF and other creditors are supposed to support national currency.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Libya Economic Overview //knoema.fr/xjhzujc/libya-economic-overview 2023-04-14T10:56:58Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Libya Economic Overview

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic and Recovery Strategies //knoema.fr/mhmynfg/covid-19-pandemic-and-recovery-strategies 2023-04-14T10:56:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic and Recovery Strategies

(12 May 2020)  For five countries that together represent almost half of the global economy—the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and Brazil—data suggests they are already in the COVID-19 recovery phase. Driving activity has notably increased to 70% or even 100% in recent weeks compared to mid-January 2020, according to mobility trends data from Apple. A comparison of daily COVID-19 cases and driving activity shows clearly the divergent strategies countries are following toward recovery. For example, China started its economic recovery (i.e. rebounding mobility) long after its COVID-19 peak* (see quadrant IV below) while the United States is still relatively close to its COVID-19 peak and is recovering rapidly (see quadrant I below). The United Kingdom and many developing countries, such as India, Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico, appear to also be closing in on their COVID-19 peaks and, unlike the United States, remain in continued lockdown. See quadrant II below (top left).A final group of countries, including Italy, Spain, France, Turkey and Australia, is past the COVID-19 peak but still has not started economic recovery at full scale. See quadrant III below (bottom left). *Here COVID-19 peak is defined simply as the maximum number of daily confirmed cases.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP Growth 1980-2021 //knoema.fr/kpavdtc/world-gdp-growth-1980-2021 2023-04-14T10:56:49Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP Growth 1980-2021

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World Inflation //knoema.fr/ylnsezd/world-inflation 2023-04-14T10:56:47Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World Inflation

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
USA and Canada GDP //knoema.fr/ggvaos/usa-and-canada-gdp 2023-04-14T10:56:47Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
USA and Canada GDP

Source: IMF

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP per Capita by Country | Forecast from IMF | 2020-2024 //knoema.fr/pjeqzh/gdp-per-capita-by-country-forecast-from-imf-2020-2024 2023-04-14T10:56:46Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP per Capita by Country | Forecast from IMF | 2020-2024

The page provides access to the GDP per capita forecast for different countries for the 2020-2024 time period from the latest IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). IMF updates its economic forecast twice a year: in April and October. GDP per capita is a country's gross domestic product divided by the country's total population. For the correct comparison, values for individual countries in the table below are converted to international dollars using purchasing power parities (PPP).   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryWorld GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index //knoema.fr/cpkhzig/knoema-alternative-data-us-economic-activity-index 2023-03-24T13:54:02Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index

(07 July 2021) According to Knoema's Alternative Data US Economic Activity Composite Index—which combines information from the six alternative data indicators displayed below along with the S&P 500 Index—the US recovery stalled in May 2021, not long after $1,400 stimulus checks had been delivered to eligible adults under the third round of federal stimulus aid. As of late June 2021, US economic activity remained about 5 percent lower than it had been in early March of 2021.Credit card spending data and the number of passengers screens by TSA point to a complete recovery in consumer activity. However, the struggling small business sector suggests that the US economy still has a ways to go before reaching full recovery. According to data from Womply, the number of US small businesses open has been on the decline since June 2020; It is currently about 40% lower than the number of small businesses active before the pandemic.Mobility data from Google also suggests recovery is underway but not yet complete, with US retail and recreation movement nearing pre-pandemic levels but movement to and from workplaces still lagging far behind.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Ends QE4 as Businesses Re-close in Largest US States //knoema.fr/qiupdue/us-federal-reserve-ends-qe4-as-businesses-re-close-in-largest-us-states 2023-03-17T19:01:08Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Ends QE4 as Businesses Re-close in Largest US States

(8 July 2020)  The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet has fallen for the third week running, down last week by another $73 billion, effectively signaling the end the Fed's fourth round of quantitative easing. The fall goes against market concerns that the Fed's balance sheet continuously increase in coming months, and potentially years, but also raises questions about whether it was premature at could negatively affect markets given that business in many of the largest US states are closing again as COVID-19 cases resurge.The $73 billion decrease in total assets was powered by a $32 billion week-on-week plunge in mortgage backed securities (MBS) as well as sharp decreases in foreign central bank liquidity swaps and repo balances. The junk-bond and ETF buying program also stalled.The overall weekly change also reflects a decrease of $9 billion in repurchase agreements and a decrease of $49.5 billion in Central Bank liquidity swaps.The Fed decreasing its liquidity program for Central Banks is positive news in the sense that it suggests Central Banks are not in urgent need of liquidity and global markets have stabilized.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The US Economy Recession Tracker //knoema.fr/zkqorpf/the-us-economy-recession-tracker 2023-03-01T12:19:59Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The US Economy Recession Tracker

(January 2023) Whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession? The state of the US economy has been widely discussed among politicians, economists and market professionals since the summer of 2022 after the US Bureau of Economic Analyses reported the decline in gross domestic product for the second connective quarter.  According to the general definition—two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)—the U.S. entered a recession in the first quarter of 2022. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research who defines turning points in the US economic activity, says that recession is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. Which means that the US economy was not in a recession in the summer of 2022. Nevertheless, monetary policy tightening by The Federal Reserve in order to moderate inflation could send the US economy into recession. In this dashboard Knoema collected 15 key macroeconomic, market, labor, confidence and housing indicators that will help do define whether the recession is coming.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Overleveraged Economies At Risk Because of Rising Debt Costs //knoema.fr/xldfaze/overleveraged-economies-at-risk-because-of-rising-debt-costs 2023-02-03T16:53:21Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Overleveraged Economies At Risk Because of Rising Debt Costs

(December 2022) The global* debt owed by households, non-financial businesses and governments stood at $230 trillion in Q1 2022, up by more than one-third from a decade ago, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). Although the world’s debt burden has declined from a pandemic-driven record early this year, the risks it poses to economies and financial markets are intensifying. That’s because many borrowers face a relentless increase in their interest payments, as the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise rates at the fastest pace in decades to subdue inflation. The danger is more acute for developing economies, especially those that borrowed in dollars.In the UK debt payments are on track to exceed 10% of all household income (not just for mortgage borrowers). In the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Canada and Korea they’re already well above that threshold—and heading toward 15%.The extent of the damage to the economy from high debt burden and rising debt costs is likely to depend on how high and fast central banks push interest rates to fight inflation. *40 largest economies tracked by BIS.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
30 Years of Reforms in Former USSR: Is the Market Economy Helping? //knoema.fr/aiykgj/30-years-of-reforms-in-former-ussr-is-the-market-economy-helping 2023-02-02T21:33:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
30 Years of Reforms in Former USSR: Is the Market Economy Helping?

(15 July 2021) The dissolution of the USSR back in 1991 led to the emergence of 15 independent states, which then began a rapid transition from central planning to a market economy. Without getting into the still-ongoing debate about the collapse of the USSR and the need for this economic transition, let's take a look at the results of 30 years of reforms in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries by the numbers. We took 1990-2019 data for three indicators to estimate the impact of market reforms: gross domestic product (GDP), which shows the strength of the economy; GDP per capita, which is a main indicator of standard of living; and change in population, which shows the ability of a socio-economic system to reproduce human capital. We also examined the relative global economic power of the former USSR countries by measuring how the 15 states' share in world GDP has shifted in the past thirty years.Of the FSU countries, Georgia, Armenia, and the three Baltic states— Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia — have most fully westernized their economies, while Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan have introduced the fewest market-style reforms.The economies of the most FSU countries were larger in 2019 than they had been in 1990, and the standard of living — judging by the GDP per capita — had also improved compared to the Soviet past for 13 of the 15 countries. However, the global economic power of the former USSR countries, measured by share in world GDP, was cut nearly in half — from 9% to 5.3% — between 1990 and 2019.The Baltic states, which integrated into the European Union, have achieved the highest standards of living among FSU countries, based on per-capita GDP. However, the loss of 15% to 28% percent of their populations, which is beyond what can be explained by demographic trends alone, raises questions about these countries' economic achievements.Economic reforms can be considered fully successful in only four Central Asian FSU countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. These countries have experienced growth in all three of the indicators we considered. The other 11 countries are characterized by either lower GDP than in 1990, a drop in GDP per capita, or a decreasing population. It’s worth keeping in mind that the FSU countries have not all embraced a market-based economy to the same extent, or implemented reforms at the same pace.  However, a broad comparison of economic data for these states before the collapse of the USSR and 30 years later provides a general sense of how FSU states are faring under economic reforms.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Expensive US Federal Debt //knoema.fr/myoqwkf/the-expensive-us-federal-debt 2023-01-30T13:51:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Expensive US Federal Debt

(January 2023) The cost to finance the US growing public debt is rising as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat the inflation. In 2022 the Federal Reserve lift rates from almost zero to 4.5%, which makes it that much more expensive to finance the US debt.During 2022, the federal government made $710 billion in interest payments, up from $580 billion the prior year, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For context, that’s more than the government spent on education and social services. And it’s nearly as much as the $755 billion spent on education or $767 billion spent on national defense.The surging cost to service the US $31.4 trillion debt leaves less room for Government to spend on other priorities, including everything from infrastructure and the education and healthcare to the national defence.Other economic indicators show that the debt burden has not crossed the unsustainable level. For example, share of interest payments to current federal budget expenditures went up to 13.8% in Q4 2022. However, during three decades in 1970s, 80s and 90s share of spending on interest payments stood between 14 and 22% of current total expenditures.Data on government receipts and expenditures shows that the Federal budget deficit is narrowing. In 2022 Federal budget deficit lowered to $1.4 trillion or 5.4% of GDP, compared to $2.8 trillion (11.9% of GDP) a year ago. The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape and if the economic growth will not turn negative in 2023, debt service will stabilise. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Fed’s Rate Cut: What it Says About US Economy & Emerging Economies //knoema.fr/qaqnkif/us-fed-s-rate-cut-what-it-says-about-us-economy-emerging-economies 2023-01-08T16:39:29Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Fed’s Rate Cut: What it Says About US Economy & Emerging Economies

(August 2019) Last week the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point, a rate that was in line with general market expectations. It was the first rate cut since 2008. A constellation of factors created the opportunity for the Fed to lower rates, including: a stable US economic outlook, a strong labour market, overall inflation and core inflation remain below two percent, and reduced manufacturing output (which has fallen for two consecutive quarters in 2019). Below we explore these factors and briefly discuss what this might mean for emerging markets.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Country Outlook (Economic, Business Environment and Health Sector) //knoema.fr/azqcseb/country-outlook-economic-business-environment-and-health-sector 2023-01-06T05:47:29Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Country Outlook (Economic, Business Environment and Health Sector)

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Competition That Shapes the Future //knoema.fr/rxnqoig/the-competition-that-shapes-the-future 2022-12-26T19:16:58Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Competition That Shapes the Future

(December 2022) One of the most significant developments in the world economy in recent decades is the rise of China as an economic superpower. From the size of economy to global trade to production of high-tech innovative products and services to complexity and diversity of supply chains, China has either come close or already ahead of the US. The competition of two superpowers - US and China - will shape the future of the global economy. In this dashboard Knoema put together seven key indicators that help to compare economic, innovative and military aspects of US-China competition.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Rise in Global Inflation Threatens World Economy //knoema.fr/mofqrgf/the-rise-in-global-inflation-threatens-world-economy 2022-12-19T16:04:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Rise in Global Inflation Threatens World Economy

The latest data on inflation from the World Bank shows that global inflation continues to accelerate. In May 2022, the world consumer price index (CPI) growth accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year. The last time year-over-year global inflation approached 8% was in 2008, when the world economy was stepping in the Great Recession. Knoema's global inflation heat map, based on the World Bank data, reveals the spread of inflation to more and more countries each month. In Dec 2019, among 107 countries in the World Bank's dataset, there were only 5 countries where year-over-year CPI growth exceeded 10%, and 21 economies where CPI growth ranged between 4% and 10%.By May 2022 the number of countries with year-over-year CPI growth above 10% had increased to 39, and the number of countries with CPI growth between 4% and 10% had reached 54.Due to high commodity prices the potential for cost-push inflation still remains high. For example, in May 2022 global CPI was 16.4% higher than it had been in May 2019. For the same period, prices for energy and non-energy commodities — the raw materials and energy used in production — increased by 88.9% and 64.4%, respectively.The downward trend in commodity prices since mid-June 2022, especially declining prices for copper, may indicate that high inflation is already hitting the global economy.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Country Snapshot: Russia's Budget Revenue is Recovering //knoema.fr/ijghpdg/country-snapshot-russia-s-budget-revenue-is-recovering 2022-12-12T13:55:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Country Snapshot: Russia's Budget Revenue is Recovering

(December 2022) According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, federal budget revenues increased by 31.5% year-over-year in November 2022, which could point to the recovery of domestic business activity.Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in November increased by 57.9% y-o-y, to 1,774 billion rubles. (compared to 1,124 billion in November 2021). Oil and gas revenues went down 2.1% y-o-y, to RUB 866 billion. Total federal budget revenues amounted to 2.64 trillion rubles in November 2022 – a increase of 31.5% y-o-y.In November, the federal budget surplus amounted to 429 billion rubles. In January-November 2022, the budget surplus amounted to 557 billion rubles.As part of non-oil and gas revenues, budget revenue from corporate profit tax increased by 34.5% y-o-y. Revenues from import duties and taxes decreased by 25.1% y-o-y.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Nontraditional Reserve Currencies Undermine Dollar Dominance //knoema.fr/lyhwgw/nontraditional-reserve-currencies-undermine-dollar-dominance 2022-12-12T11:30:58Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Nontraditional Reserve Currencies Undermine Dollar Dominance

(December 2022) The US dollar has long played an outsized role in global markets. It continues to do so even as the American economy has been producing a shrinking share of global output over the last two decades. However nontraditional currencies have played a larger role in global foreign exchange reserves in recent years.According to the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data the US dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fell below 60 percent since Q4 2020, extending a two-decade decline.The reduced role of the US dollar hasn’t been matched by increases in the shares of the other traditional reserve currencies: the euro, yen, and pound.The currencies of smaller economies that haven’t traditionally figured prominently in reserve portfolios, such as the Australian and Canadian dollars, Swedish krona and South Korean won, account for three quarters of the shift from dollars. And one quarter is explained by some increase in the share of reserves held in renminbi.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Activity Indicators //knoema.fr/atdgdng/global-economic-activity-indicators 2022-12-08T10:04:19Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Activity Indicators

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on July 6, 2022 said the outlook for the global economy had "darkened significantly" since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession in 2023 given the elevated risks. Among the global economic problems, Kristalina Georgieva named the spread of inflation, the slowdown in China's economic growth and sanctions against Russia. In this dashboard Knoema put together key short-term indicators that helps to monitor global economic activity and detect early signals of global recession.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Labor Market Lags Behind the Economy //knoema.fr/acvxxvc/us-labor-market-lags-behind-the-economy 2022-12-06T19:31:42Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Labor Market Lags Behind the Economy

While the U.S. economy shrinks for the second consecutive quarter, labor market remains tight and companies are still focused on hiring. In July the US unemployment went down to a historically low 3.5 per cent even after gross domestic product declined 1.6% and 0.9% in Q1 and Q2 2022, respectively.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour turnover shows that layoffs still running at historically low levels in most industries. Most layoffs in June were concentrated in construction, which is sensitive to rising interest rates.The number of open job positions remains well above early 2020 levels and quits rate remains well above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels in most sectors, which indicates that the labor market remains strong. However the decline in a quits rates in recent months indicates the slowdown in the pace of employees leaving for better offers elsewhere.As labor market usually lags behind the economy it make take up to two or three months before the increase in the unemployment rate will confirm the decline in output.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
United States: Tracking Early Signals of Post-COVID Crisis Rebound //knoema.fr/stvluj/united-states-tracking-early-signals-of-post-covid-crisis-rebound 2022-11-27T07:01:41Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
United States: Tracking Early Signals of Post-COVID Crisis Rebound

(April 7, 2020) In early 2020 economists and statisticians faced a similar problem as 90 years ago in the very beginning of the Great Depression. After the economy collapsed in the fourth quarter of 1929 the US government needed to find a way to measure the magnitude of the recession. Fast forward to the late 1930s and the first official US national accounts were born from the efforts of one Simon Kuzents. This was the introduction of the modern concept of ‘gross domestic product’, a central concept of modern economic analysis. While GDP can confirm the speed and magnitude of changes in economic activity, by virtue of being estimated on a quarterly basis, significant changes in economic activity (upward or downward) typically only appear three to four months post-fact. GDP certainly cannot measure up to a COVID-19 economic experience.  Even leading indicators—introduced first in 1938 by Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns, founders of business cycle research—with the benefit of monthly and even daily frequencies, as well as positive track records for predicting recessions 3 to 6 months out, are ill equipped for COVID-19. In this dashboard we compare the ability of "traditional" leading indices and some alternative economic indicators to produce early warning signals of economic downturns.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Recession Fears: American Consumers in Focus //knoema.fr/hsjzslc/us-recession-fears-american-consumers-in-focus 2022-11-17T17:03:30Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Recession Fears: American Consumers in Focus

While real sector of the U.S. economy continues to expand, consumers are losing confidence amid record-high inflation. In this dashboard we collected four indicators demonstrating early warning signals of consumer demand downturns. The Google Web Search Trend for the U.S. Recession shows the relative popularity of "recession" search quarries in the U.S. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of U.S. consumer confidence levels conducted by the University of Michigan. It is based on telephone surveys that gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.  Unemployment Claims are based on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, e.g. each week's release is the average of the four prior jobless claims reports. Strong job growth is considered a sign of a strong economy. Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita is the amount of money that U.S. residents have left to spend or save after paying taxes.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Less Globalization - Less Equality //knoema.fr/prbgqje/less-globalization-less-equality 2022-11-17T15:13:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Less Globalization - Less Equality

(November 2022) Specialization in a world of free trade increases the production potential of the global economy. The problem, though, is that the gains aren’t equally distributed — not only between countries, but within countries as well. When the U.S. moved labor-intensive production abroad, U.S. manufacturing started to hemorrhage jobs. Some began to blame U.S. trade deficits, especially with China, for these losses, thinking that globalization increases income inequality. However, data shows the opposite - the more open economies are frequently relatively equal. For example, in Czech Republic with the foreign trade turnover to GDP ratio of 142% GINI index of income inequality stands at 25. While in Brazil GINI index reaches 53.5 and trade to GDP ratio is only  29%.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Activity: Evidence from High Frequency Data //knoema.fr/djzgfmc/global-economic-activity-evidence-from-high-frequency-data 2022-11-16T11:58:32Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Activity: Evidence from High Frequency Data

(November 2022) Global economic growth prospects are confronting a unique mix of headwinds, including from disruptions in supply chains, interest rate increases to contain inflation, and lingering pandemic effects such as China’s lockdowns. As the data shows, there has been a steady worsening in recent months for PMI indices that are tracking a range of G20 economies. These survey-based measures gauge the momentum of manufacturing activity.Readings for a growing share of G20 countries have fallen from expansionary territory earlier this year to levels that signal contraction. That is true for both advanced and emerging market economies, underscoring the slowdown’s global nature.While gross domestic product releases for the third quarter surprised on the upside in some major economies, October PMI releases point to weakness in the fourth quarter, particularly in Europe. In China, intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the struggling real estate sector are contributing to a slowdown that can be seen not only in PMI data but also in investment, industrial production, and retail sales.Further fiscal and monetary tightening will continue to weigh on economic activity, especially in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
China and US Are The Main Contributors to Global Debt Growth //knoema.fr/ikhlwlf/china-and-us-are-the-main-contributors-to-global-debt-growth 2022-11-07T12:43:17Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
China and US Are The Main Contributors to Global Debt Growth

(November 2022) According to data from the Bank for International Settlements since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic non-financial sector debt of 40 largest economies increased by $36 trillion - from $194 trillion in Q4 2019 to $230 trillion in Q1 2022. The largest contributors to global non-financial sector debt increase were China and US. Since the end of 2019 non-financial sector debt in China and US increased by $16 and $10 trillion respectively, making up over 70% of global non-financial sector debt increase. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP Ranking 2022 | GDP by Country | Data and Charts //knoema.fr/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2022-gdp-by-country-data-and-charts 2022-11-04T19:51:43Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
World GDP Ranking 2022 | GDP by Country | Data and Charts

  The list of countries by GDP showed on this page is based on the latest data from the World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund. 192 countries from around the world are ranked by GDP measured in US dollars and PPPs from 1980 to 2020. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the economic size of a country. It shows the total value of all goods and services sold in a country within a particular period of time. One may want to compare countries by GDP to understand which countries are "richest" or have larger markets, i.e. where more goods and services are sold and bought. To make international comparisons possible, GDP should be converted into a single currency because initially, all countries report their GDP in different national currencies. Conversion can be made using current exchange rates or Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs). The world's 10 largest economies in 2020 as measured in US dollars using current exchange rates are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, India, France, Italy, Canada, and Korea. Using current exchange rates to convert national currencies to US dollars is popular because data on exchange rates are easily accessible but it has a significant drawback. Using current exchange rates for country comparisons by GDP is not correct because exchange rates are often significantly overestimated or underestimated compared to their "correct levels". Correct exchange rate, in turn, should equalize the price levels in two countries. To make it clear, let's assume that the US and Russia, for example,  produce only one Big Mac a year each. So, their GDP should be the same and should equal the cost of the Big Mac. Due to the difference in price levels, it costs 130 Rubles in Russia and 6$ in the US. So, the "correct" conversion rate equalizing price levels should be 22 Rubles per 1 USD. Using this conversion rate, the GDP of Russia and the US will be the same and will equal $6 dollars. However, if we use the current exchange rate of 63 rubles per dollar, Russia GDP will be only $2. The conversion rate which equalizes the prices in the two countries is known as the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). According to this measure, the 10 largest economies in the world are China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and France. So, based on PPPs, the Chinese economy is bigger than the US economy.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
External Debt by Country: Data and Charts //knoema.fr/qhvrvi/external-debt-by-country-data-and-charts 2022-11-03T12:38:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
External Debt by Country: Data and Charts

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
List of US States by GDP, 2010-2021 //knoema.fr/rhjjehg/list-of-us-states-by-gdp-2010-2021 2022-11-03T12:20:18Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
List of US States by GDP, 2010-2021

On this page, US states are ranked by the real gross domestic product (GDP). California has the largest GDP among US states of $2.8 billion accounting for 15 percent of the total country's GDP. Texas has the second-largest economy which constitutes 10 percent of the national economy.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Unemployment Rate by Country 2022 | Data and Charts //knoema.fr/blizore/unemployment-rate-by-country-2022-data-and-charts 2022-11-03T12:18:45Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
Unemployment Rate by Country 2022 | Data and Charts

List of countries by unemployment rate in 2019 presented on this page is based on estimates from the International Labor Organization (ILO) - the leading source of worldwide labor statistics. The data is harmonized to account for differences in national data and scope of coverage, methodologies and other country-specific factors which increases the comparability across countries. Countries with the highest unemployment rate in the world in 2019 are four southern African countries: South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, and Eswatini, two southeastern European countries: North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and two southern Caribbean islands: Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and Grenadines. The unemployment rate is the share of people of working age without work but who desire and are able to work and actively seeking it. It is measured as a percent of unemployed in the total labor force of a country. The unemployment rate is one of the three fundamental macroeconomic indicators along with GDP and inflation. Declining unemployment rate indicates that companies' demand for labor force increases meaning they expand and produce more goods and services contributing to the GDP growth. The tight labor market, in turn, makes it more difficult to hire and places upward pressure on wages which means higher costs and higher overall inflation. While annual data on the unemployment rate for most world countries can be obtained from ILO, the latest quarterly and monthly statistics (with less broad country coverage though) are available in datasets from IMF, OECD, and Eurostat.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
World GDP per Capita Ranking 2022 | Data and Charts //knoema.fr/sijweyg/world-gdp-per-capita-ranking-2022-data-and-charts 2022-11-03T12:04:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP per Capita Ranking 2022 | Data and Charts

GDP per capita determines the level of economic development of the country: the higher the GDP per capita in a country the higher the economic wealth of its citizens.Since the beginning of the century, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Norway have the sustainable high positions of GDPs per capita at current prices with Luxembourg being the leader.GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP) is a more accurate characteristic determining the level of economic development and economic growth. Based on this approach, Qatar has the highest GDP per capita in the world while Luxembourg ranks second. According to the definition given by Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures International Comparison Program, purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio of the number of units of country A’s currency needed to purchase in country A the same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country B’s currency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among large numbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the US dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or "numeraire" currency.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP Forecast by Country | Statistics from IMF | 2022-2027 //knoema.fr/tbocwag/gdp-forecast-by-country-statistics-from-imf-2022-2027 2022-11-03T12:03:19Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
GDP Forecast by Country | Statistics from IMF | 2022-2027

This page presents GDP forecast figures by country for the period from 2021 to 2025 as estimated by the IMF in its latest edition of World Economic Outlook (WEO) as of October 2020. In the table below, countries are ranked by the gross domestic product measured in purchasing power parities (PPP) at current prices.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryHistorical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000140
Global Monetary Policy Barometer //knoema.fr/xsmbpnb/global-monetary-policy-barometer 2022-10-26T14:15:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Monetary Policy Barometer

During the pandemic, central banks in both advanced and emerging market economies took unprecedented steps to ease financial conditions and support economic recovery, including cutting interest rates and buying assets. With inflation in many countries at its highest level in decades and pressures going beyond food and energy prices, politicians have begun to tighten their policies. Central banks in many emerging markets began raising rates aggressively early last year, and their counterparts in advanced economies in the last months of 2021. The monetary policy cycle is now increasingly synchronized around the world. Importantly, the pace of tightening is accelerating in several countries, particularly in advanced economies, in terms of both frequency and magnitude of rate hikes. Some central banks have begun to reduce the size of their balance sheets, moving further toward normalization of policy.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Soaring Commodity Prices: A New Supercycle Or Corona-Crisis Aftermath //knoema.fr/wpaffrb/soaring-commodity-prices-a-new-supercycle-or-corona-crisis-aftermath 2022-10-26T06:10:07Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Soaring Commodity Prices: A New Supercycle Or Corona-Crisis Aftermath

(16 February 2020) The rise in commodity prices over the past three months has led experts to speculate about the beginning of a new "supercycle" and an extended period of rapid price expansions in the commodity markets. The idea of commodity supercycles is not new. Eighty-five years ago, Russian economist Nikolay Kondratieff has published his famous article describing how the depreciation of capital assets, changes in interest rates, and innovation activities generate "the cyclical dynamics of the capitalistic social order" and an above-trend movement in commodity prices over a period of years. But given that only 10 years have passed since the last peak, does the recent rally in commodity prices indicate the beginning of a new supercycle?The commodity index constructed by Knoema shows that the most recent commodity supercycles occurred in the second half of the 1970s and subsequently at the end of the 2000s, with a gap of 3 decades in between. And yet, only 1 decade has passed since the very last supercycle peaked in the late 2000s.Governments across the world have put together pandemic stimulus amounting to a total of $13.8 trillion, equivalent to 16% of the world's GDP. Coupled with extremely low interest rates these factors alone will have a significant upward impact on prices. The same thing happened right after 2008 when quantitative easing programs increased global liquidity and inflated nominal commodity prices in 2010-2011.COVID-19-related slowdown and the quick recovery in the second half of 2020 had been accompanied by structural changes in consumer demand, disruptions in global trade and value chains, which caused a rise in prices in specific markets (semiconductors and sea freight). Not to mention cold winter weather in the northern hemisphere which supports fuel demand and pushes up oil and gas prices. Whether it is a new supercycle or not we will only know in a few years. At the moment, the global economy is still subject to stress brought on by the new COVID-19 strain, potential disruptions in vaccine rollout, and a high stringency of pandemic restrictions.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | Back to Subdued Post-Covid Growth //knoema.fr/egeppx/imf-global-growth-projections-back-to-subdued-post-covid-growth 2022-10-15T15:53:52Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | Back to Subdued Post-Covid Growth

(12 October 2022) According to October 2022 World Economic Outlook by IMF the global economy is experiencing a number of turbulent challenges. Inflation higher than seen in several decades, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Significant slowdowns for the largest economies point to unusually large and downside risks to outlook: a US GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a euro area contraction in the second half of 2022, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis.In the global ranking of countries by economy size, the main shift in 2022 compared to 2021 is the emergence of Egypt as the 18th largest economy. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF October 2021 Outlook | Robust Expansion Despite Rising Inflation //knoema.fr/hftinad/imf-october-2021-outlook-robust-expansion-despite-rising-inflation 2022-10-15T15:45:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF October 2021 Outlook | Robust Expansion Despite Rising Inflation

(14 October 2021) The mid-term prospects for the development of the global economy look promising — the International Monetary Fund projects that almost 6% global GDP growth in 2021 and almost 5% growth in 2022 will be followed with annual growth above 3% in 2023 through 2026. However, uncertainty around inflation pressure and the pandemic situation are considered major risks for global growth. Here are the key takeaways from the October 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:October 2021 global growth projections by the IMF were nearly unchanged from the summer outlook. The global GDP growth estimate for 2021 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9%, underlining the negative impact of global supply chain disruptions and worsening pandemic dynamics. The forecast for 2022 global growth is unchanged, at 4.9%.Looking into 2022, the IMF expects that commodity prices will stay at 2021 levels, while global food prices will see further increases.In addition to commodity prices staying high, CPI inflation is expected to accelerate. In 2021–2022, the IMF anticipates annual CPI growth over 4% in more than 70 countries, compared to 54 countries in 2020 (out of 190 countries in the IMF's WEO Outlook database).So far, the IMF considers the recent increases in inflation rates in the US, Europe, and many developing economies to be driven by temporary pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches. The inflation pressure is expected to subside in 2022, though uncertainty around inflation prospects remains high.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus //knoema.fr/oaevdfg/imf-global-growth-projections-more-optimism-amidst-new-fiscal-stimulus 2022-10-15T15:45:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus

(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated vaccination progress.The IMF continues to emphasize the unusually large uncertainty surrounding its baseline projection due to unknowns regarding the path of pandemic recovery and the efficacy of government policies and support measures.The IMF projects that the US and Japan will not only return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2022 and 2023, but also demonstrate a better growth performance after the recovery than predicted in pre-COVID estimates. Other top world economies are expected to return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2021 and 2022, falling only 1.5% short of their pre-COVID baselines by 2024. India is the exception; the IMF forecasts a growth gap of 11% below pre-COVID projections by 2024.In the global ranking of countries by economy size, the main shift in 2021 compared to pre-COVID 2019 is the emergence of Taiwan as the 19th largest economy. Successful containment of coronavirus and strong global demand for electronics and semiconductors boosted the country's economic growth during the pandemic. The IMF expects Thailand, which has been hit hard by the global tourism industry crisis, to drop out of the world's 20 largest economies list.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall by $1 Trillion //knoema.fr/utgexrd/global-foreign-exchange-reserves-fall-by-1-trillion 2022-10-13T11:20:43Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall by $1 Trillion

(13 October 2022) As central banks from India to the Czech Republic intervene to maintain their currencies, global forex reserves are depleting at the quickest rate ever. By the end of August the amount of reserves has decreased this year by $1.3 trillion, or 9.1%, to $13 trillion.Valuation adjustments alone are responsible for some of the fall. The dollar worth of these currencies’ holdings dropped as the dollar surged to two-decade highs versus other reserve currencies, such as the euro and yen.The declining reserves, also reflect the tension in the currency market, which is causing an increasing number of central banks to draw from their foreign reserves in order to stave off devaluation. For instance, India’s reserves has decreased by $100 billion to $532 billion in September 2022. According to the central bank of the nation, asset valuation adjustments are responsible for 67% of the decrease in reserves during the course of the fiscal year beginning in April, indicating that currency intervention accounted for the remaining 35%.Japan made its first intervention to boost the yen since 1998 in September, spending nearly $20 billion to stop the currency’s decline. This would be responsible for around 19% of the reserves’ loss this year. Czech Republic reserves have decreased by 19% since February as a result of currency intervention. Banknotes, deposits, bonds, treasury bills, and other types of government assets such as gold can all be included in foreign exchange reserve. These assets have multiple uses, but they are primarily kept as a safety net in case a central government agency’s home currency depreciates sharply or goes bankrupt.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Investors Expect Subsiding Inflation //knoema.fr/mjujlqb/investors-expect-subsiding-inflation 2022-10-10T20:39:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Investors Expect Subsiding Inflation

(10 October 2022) Even after their recent rise, current ten-year government bond yields lag inflation over the past 12 months by five percentage points in America and a whopping ten points in the Netherlands. This gap reflects investors’ expectation that inflation is likely to subside fairly soon. Persistence of high inflation for a longer period may provoke the further fall in financial asset prices.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Dollar is Winning The Currency War //knoema.fr/ltpgfgb/us-dollar-is-winning-the-currency-war 2022-09-27T13:17:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Dollar is Winning The Currency War

(27 September, 2022) According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, since the end of 2021 US dollar appreciated by 10.5% against other currencies. An ultra-hawkish Fed policy and energy crisis and high energy costs pushed the dollar to new highs.Japanese yen, Swedish kronor and UK pound depreciated by more than 19% against US dollar since the end of 2021. For the same period Euro depreciated by 13%.Strong US dollar makes imported goods and services cheeper for US consumers, partiality compensating the growth of domestic prices.For the global economy appreciation of US dollar will have an essential negative impact subduing global trade, causing debt crisis in developing countries and suppressing growth in developed economies as major central banks have to hike policy rates in response to FED's policy.  

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Uncertainty is Surging //knoema.fr/vbtpund/global-economic-uncertainty-is-surging 2022-09-22T10:32:09Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economic Uncertainty is Surging

While global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels with the initial coronavirus outbreak, it then fell sharply. However, the World Uncertainty Index rebounded in the first quarter, reaching levels close to what was seen around the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States and the United Kingdom’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union.  The increase in the world uncertainty index is a bad sign for global growth. Based on IMF estimates, the rise in uncertainty in the first half of 2022 could be enough to reduce full-year global growth by up to 0.35 percentage point.  Note: The Uncertainty Index is computed by counting the percent of the word "uncertain" (or its variant) in the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The index is rescaled by multiplying by 1,000,000. A higher number means higher uncertainty and vice versa.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economy is Still Below Pre-Pandemic Level //knoema.fr/bplicbg/global-economy-is-still-below-pre-pandemic-level 2022-09-12T10:53:05Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Economy is Still Below Pre-Pandemic Level

To track how economic activity has changed over the course of the pandemic, The Economist in 2021 devised a “global normalcy” index. Index employs eight indicators that together track transport use, leisure time and commercial activity for 50 countries, representing 75% of the planet’s population and 90% of its GDP. The index is scaled so that 100 is equivalent to pre-pandemic levels. Worldwide, the index hit an all-time low of 34 points on April 11th 2020, during the first wave of lockdowns.Index shows that activity is, by and large, almost back to where it used to be. As of mid-June, the world was at 84% of the pre-pandemic normal. In eight of the 50 countries measured by index, activity is now greater than it was before covid-19 arrived.But hidden within these averages are signs of big and seemingly long-term shifts: people are moving about less, especially to stare at screens. In rich countries, offices are about a third less crowded than they were before the pandemic began—and this has not changed much since the end of last year. And whereas people have returned as spectators to professional sports, cinema box-office receipts are still down by 30% compared with 2019. Instead, more time is spent at home.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Colombia's Economy Loses 15.7% in Q2 2020 //knoema.fr/rzqjnjf/colombia-s-economy-loses-15-7-in-q2-2020 2022-08-24T11:14:09Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Colombia's Economy Loses 15.7% in Q2 2020

(19 August 2020) Colombia’s economy plummeted by 15.7 percent YoY in Q2 against revised growth of 1.4 percent in Q1 (originally reported at 1.1%). The decrease was in line with market expectations, given lockdown conditions across the country to curb the spread of coronavirus, as well as the experience of other similar size economies, including Malaysia.Looking externally, amidst COVID-19 induced subdued global demand, Colombia's exports plunged by 27.4 percent YoY, the sharpest decrease in two decades, while imports decreased 28.8 percent.On the domestic front, fixed investment fell 32.2 percent, private expenditure by 15.9 percent, and government expenditure held steady at 2.9 percent.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Sri Lanka: Economic Background of Mass Protests //knoema.fr/jmkgofg/sri-lanka-economic-background-of-mass-protests 2022-07-15T08:45:28Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Sri Lanka: Economic Background of Mass Protests

On weekend (July 9-10, 2022) Sri Lanka's President and Prime Minister were forced them to resign after 100,000 protesters massed outside President's residence. In this dashboard we collected key indicators revealing economic background of mass protests in Sri Lanka.Because of pandemic number of tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka dropped from 2.3 millions in 2019 to just 194 thousands in 2021. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council total contribution of tourism sector to Sri Lanka economy accounted for 12% of GDP and employment before the pandemic.In recent decades government and business relied heavily on foreign loans to increase investment in infrastructure development. Between 2011 and 2020 external debt of Sri Lanka increased from $25.8 bln. (40% of GNI) to $56.3 bln. (72% of GNI). Over the same period interest payment on external debt increased from 0.8% to 2.2% of GNI. In 2022 government debt reached 109% of GDP and total debt (including government, households and non-financial corporations) amounted to 150% of GDP.Sri Lanka imports nearly 30% of cereals and over 80% of energy consumed in the country. Between 2019 and mid 2022 world prices for energy and cereals almost doubled pushing up domestic inflation. Government and Central Bank of Sri Lanka had to fall back on its foreign exchange reserves to pay off government debt, support national currency and pay for imported food and energy. Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves dropped from $7.5 bln. in Mar. 2020 to $1.9 billion in May 2022. As foreign reserves dwindled Central Bank of Sri Lanka had to devalue national currency.Consumer price inflation accelerated to 33.8% year-over-year and Sri Lanka's Rupee lost 44% of its value since the start of 2022.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Europe Without Russian Energy Inputs //knoema.fr/tqrxnng/europe-without-russian-energy-inputs 2022-07-06T11:14:39Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Europe Without Russian Energy Inputs

As EU and other developed countries are reducing dependency on Russian energy commodities over the course of 2022, risks of energy supply disruptions and adverse economic effects remain extremely high.According to OECD, the complete embargo on imports of Russian energy commodities by EU and UK will reduce GDP in growth by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 respectively compared to baseline. And world GDP growth will decelerate by 0.5 percentage points in 2020. Inflation in Europe will accelerate by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 respectively compared to baseline.Different industries will be affected unequally. According to the OECD estimates for European countries,  the embargo on Russian energy inputs will reduce output in production of petroleum products, electricity generation and mining of energy commodities by 37%, 30% and 25% respectively. Output in transportation industries will fall by 5-8% and production of chemicals and basic metals will drop by 4% and 3%, respectively. Services industries will suffer much less compared to other industries.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Impact of China's "Zero-COVID" Policy //knoema.fr/ztdyzlc/economic-impact-of-china-s-zero-covid-policy 2022-06-23T13:19:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Impact of China's "Zero-COVID" Policy

New anti-pandemic restrictions imposed by Chinese government in response to the recent COVID outbreak has brought business activity to a halt in Shanghai, China’s largest city, as well as swaths of Beijing and dozens of smaller municipalities, mostly in the east of the country.Given the relatively weak data for the first quarter of 2022, China’s economic growth target of 5.5% for this year, which is the lowest target in three decades, looks increasingly ambitious. Trying to halt the decline, Chinese government announced 33 new policy initiatives including reverting to traditional stimulus measures such as spending on large-scale infrastructure projects, offering tax breaks and easing restrictions on banks to increase lending.China’s recent university graduates are struggling to find work. Faltering growth has accelerated youth unemployment, which in urban areas has jumped from 14 per cent late last year to 18 per cent in April and May 2022."Zero-COVID" policy has a significant negative impact on China’s property market, which usually accounts for almost a third of the economy. China’s home sales are falling at a faster pace than early 2020.Lockdown in Shanghai, the world largest sea port, has disrupted container shipments and led to deceleration of China's forming trade flows.Chinese stock market tumbled in late April on fears COVID restrictions in China could hit supply chains and the global economy. Chinese Yuan has depreciated by 6%.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
KSA dashboard //knoema.fr/gshtlp/ksa-dashboard 2022-06-10T09:48:34Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
KSA dashboard

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
KSA National Accounts //knoema.fr/qrjscre/ksa-national-accounts 2022-06-10T09:46:43Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
KSA National Accounts

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Regional Outlook: Turkey Pivots from Currency Crisis to Coronacrisis //knoema.fr/clonhzc/knoema-regional-outlook-turkey-pivots-from-currency-crisis-to-coronacrisis 2021-11-24T10:01:53Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Regional Outlook: Turkey Pivots from Currency Crisis to Coronacrisis

(24 September 2020) As the EU added Turkey to its 'risky countries' list and other countries, like Russia, halted international flights, Turkey's tourism industry vanished under the burden of COVID-19 this spring and recovery remains sluggish. For a country reliant on tourism as a source of foreign currency and (directly and indirectly) over 12 percent of GDP and 8 percent of employment, the devastation of the tourism industry has taken the economy prisoner.Combining losses in exports of services and travel & transport services with disruptions in global trade, the current account balance deficit has widened to -$20 billion, or 3 percent of GDP, for the January to June 2020 period. In addition, the accumulated net foreign debt of Turkey's non-financial corporations now exceeds $160 billion (20 percent of GDP).Turkey was just emerging from its 2018-2019 currency crisis when COVID-19 took hold in April. The Turkish lira has now lost 30 percent of its value agains the US dollar since the start of 2020, despite desperate efforts by the Central Bank, including selling off $30 billion of its foreign exchange reserves.To provide economic support and accelerate growth, the government has increased spending while the Central Bank has extended money supply in and kept interest rates at relatively low levels. New fiscal and monetary stimulus are estimated at 3.8 percent and 4.7 percent of GDP, respectively. As the disappointing 2020 tourist season comes to an end, the question now is whether Turkey has sufficient reserves to support Lira and prevent a fresh currency crisis until next summer's tourism season.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth //knoema.fr/dzptwkd/fiscal-policy-now-reducing-us-gdp-growth 2021-11-24T08:14:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth

(05 November 2021) Between Q2 2020 and Q1 2021, when the U.S. economy was struggling because of pandemic-related restrictions and high unemployment, an increase in government spending and tax cuts provided significant support to U.S. economic growth. However, after the fiscal stimulus programs ended in Q1 2021, the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. GDP growth turned negative, according to the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure estimate.The Hutchins Center estimates that in Q2 and Q3 2021, fiscal policy reduced U.S. real GDP growth by 2.2 and 2.4 percentage points respectively, mostly due to the end of supportive tax and benefits programs. U.S. fiscal restraint is expected to continue in 2022 and 2023. Definition: The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth. The FIM only measures the direct effects of fiscal policy and includes no multipliers.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Japan: Weakened Pre-COVID Economy Turns in Record Setting Q2 2020 //knoema.fr/rtzaipg/japan-weakened-pre-covid-economy-turns-in-record-setting-q2-2020 2021-11-17T16:13:51Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Japan: Weakened Pre-COVID Economy Turns in Record Setting Q2 2020

(22 August 2020) Japan's economic performance in Q2 2020 was the worst ever since Tokyo started publishing GDP data. The world's third largest economy reported a 7.8 percent QoQ decrease compared to 'only' a 4.8 percent drop during the global financial crisis. While a rough quarter for Japan, it was still a less severe economic contraction that faced by the United Kingdom (down 20.4 percent) and the United States (down 9.5 percent) where COVID measures forced broad sweeping constraints on normal economic activity that Japan has avoided.On an annualized basis*, Japan's economy shrank 27.8 percent, a better performance still than the United States, which set its own record with an annualized decrease of 32.9 percent in Q2.Private consumption, which accounts for more than 50 percent of Japan's GDP, fell 8.2 percent QoQ while gross fixed capital formation declined by less than a percent.As was the case elsewhere globally during Q2, Japan's exports succumbed to weak global demand and decreased 18.5 percent QoQ; imports declined only marginally (0.54 percent). Japan entered the COVID period with an economy struggling with high tax rates, soaring national debt, rising costs for elder care, and a shrinking consumer market as well as absorbing a continuing series of economic shocks from natural disasters, notably including the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami of 2011. Seeking to brace its domestic economy while awaiting the recovery of global demand, tourism, and general economic activity, the government and financial system have taken a multi-pronged approach to manage through COVID:Stimulus package. The government announced a fiscal stimulus package of $2.1 trillion, about 40 percent of GDP. Adjusted monetary policy. The Bank of Japan eased monetary policy through unlimited purchases of government bonds, real estate investment trusts, corporate bonds, and indirect lending programs.   Note: Annualized GDP reflects what would happen if the Q2 GDP growth rate continued for a whole year. It is calculated as [(current quarter GDP/ Previous quarter GDP)^4-1]*100. 

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021 //knoema.fr/eimbkwb/us-economic-growth-slows-in-q3-2021 2021-11-10T07:22:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021

(01 November 2021) According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in Q3 2021 U.S. GDP growth decelerated, dropping to only 2% over the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Detailed National Income and Product Accounts data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics helps to explain why real GDP growth in July through September 2021 was less than a third of the growth rates in Q1 and Q2.Slowdown in Q3 real GDP growth was caused mostly by deceleration in personal consumer spending. In Q3 2021 personal consumption, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. GDP, contributed only 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, compared to 7.4 and 7.9 percentage point contributions in Q1 and Q2 2021.The detailed BEA data shows that the deceleration in personal consumption was mostly related to a decrease in durable goods consumer spending. This decrease alone subtracted 2.7 percentage points from the U.S. real GDP growth in Q3.  The decline in personal durables purchases was mainly caused by a drop in sales of motor vehicles amid supply chain disruptions and the Delta variant surge. Personal consumption of recreational goods and of furnishings and household equipment also contracted slightly.Meanwhile, expectations for Q4 real GDP growth remain high. Based on currently available data for the main high-frequency indicators, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atalanta estimates U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2021 of 6.6% SAAR.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus //knoema.fr/mfklch/stock-markets-driven-by-fed-stimulus 2021-11-02T12:19:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus

(29 September 2021) On Sept. 22, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would probably start tightening monetary policy in 2022. Markets hardly noticed the announcement, though, likely because the Fed continues to inject $120 billion of new money into the economy each month.  So far in 2021, the Fed has already purchased U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities worth $1.1 trillion. Given that the expansionary monetary policy after the Great Recession resulted in high dependency of the stock markets on the Fed's assets expansion, shutting down the printing presses would be a difficult decision for the Federal Reserve.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Five Decades of Global Growth Deceleration //knoema.fr/ukymsof/five-decades-of-global-growth-deceleration 2021-10-28T08:26:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Five Decades of Global Growth Deceleration

(17 September 2021) Data from international organizations such as the U.N. and the International Monetary Fund shows that in the last five decades global economic growth decelerated by almost 50%—from an average 3.9% growth per year in the 1970s to an average 2.3% growth in the 2010s. Current trends in labor, capital, and productivity—the major drivers of economic growth—suggest deceleration will continue long term.Data from the U.N. shows that the global annual growth of population ages 15–64 (which constitutes the labor force) decelerated from 2.2% in 1970 to less than 1% in 2020. And according to U.N. projections, in the next few decades labor force growth will decelerate even further.The impact of capital on global growth can be indirectly estimated through the share of fixed capital investment in world GDP. According to the World Bank, between 1970 and 2019 share of investment in world GDP declined from 25.5% to 23.8%. Typically, the lower the investment to GDP ratio, the slower the economic growth, since the volume of resources allocated for the creation of new production capacities is decreasing relative to final consumption.Global productivity growth has also been declining since 1970. In the 1980s and 1990s the decline of productivity in developed countries was counterbalanced by rising productivity in emerging economies (mainly in China) as result of industrialization, but in the 2010s growth of productivity in China slowed down as well, now that basic infrastructure and industries have been built. There is still potential for productivity gains in India, but India is unlikely to make up for the slowdown in productivity growth in both developed countries and China.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth //knoema.fr/nkzfxg/u-s-needs-more-debt-to-sustain-growth 2021-10-13T09:30:27Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth

(07 October 2021) At the end of June of 2021, the U.S. government hit the public debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's estimates, under the existing debt limit the U.S. government will have to stop paying on its obligations such as social security programs, salaries and interest payments on treasury securities on October 18.Prolonged debates and lack of consensus in the U.S. Congress on the debt limit led to a stock market decline through September, on the expectation that government spending cuts to sustain the debt level amid high inflation will inevitably lead to an economic downturn.This week, Democrats and Republicans agreed to extend the public debt ceiling until December 3 and allow the US government to borrow an additional $480 billion.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Recovery Lagging in Largest US Cities //knoema.fr/nxfdlvd/economic-recovery-lagging-in-largest-us-cities 2021-10-08T14:15:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Recovery Lagging in Largest US Cities

(7 December 2020) Our communities may be the life blood of our national economies, but you'd never guess as much from the paucity of data readily available to support local businesses and city officials. An abundance of official national level economic indicators published anywhere from weekly to annually fuels relatively high velocity analytics compare to cities, where what limited data is available may only be published on a lag of as much as two years. The scarcity of timely socioeconomic statistics becomes especially distressing during periods of instability and recession, like the current corona-crisis. In a move to support local businesses and governments make better informed decisions, the Opportunity Insights project at Harvard University collected a database of high frequency indicators for largest US cities based on data offered by the likes of Affinity, Google, Womply, and Burning Glass. Below are just a few takeaways from this high frequency city level economic data.The Weekly Economic Index from the New York Fed shows that the US economy continues to recover from the corona-crisis but largely outside of major cities. Data on the labor market, consumer demand, mobility, and small businesses for the largest US cities shows that most cities have under performed the national average during the recovery period.While government stimulus and low interest rates have helped consumer demand recover, credit/debit card spending data shows that household expenditures remain about 5-15 percent below January 2020 levels. Washington D.C. is an outlier, with consumer spending still 30 percent below the January 2020 level. The recovery looks grim so far for the US labor market and small businesses. Not one of the 20 largest US cities has seen employment return to pre-crisis levels. And, by the end of November 2020, there were 24 to 45 percent fewer small businesses operational compared to the start of the year. One possible explanation of subdued economic recovery in largest cities would be the increased share of employees who work remotely. More stringent anti-covid restrictions could also contribute to relatively slow recovery in largest cities. More data (and time) will help to illuminate these underlying dynamics.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading //knoema.fr/ksstsae/us-china-competition-gdp-can-be-misleading 2021-10-05T08:17:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading

(23 September 2021) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has for years been the key economic indicator used for cross-country comparisons. The value of GDP shows how large a country's economy is, and per capita GDP is used to compare countries' productivity and technological development. However, emphasis on these directly measurable indicators often obscures qualitative characteristics of development that can significantly affect the estimates of a country's economic potential.With China becoming an economic superpower, comparison of US and Chinese economic strength has become a regular exercise for experts and research institutions. Such exercises often prioritize cross-country GDP comparison, which shows that China's economy today is 33% smaller compared to the U.S. economy, and shows an even wider gap in productivity/technological development. The most optimistic (for China) calculations indicate that China's GDP per capita is 75% smaller than that of the U.S. However, there are other metrics showing China's capability to challenge the position of the U.S. in the global economy. For example, data from the World Bank shows that China produces two times more industrial goods than the U.S. In addition, trade statistics show that China has closer trade ties with the rest of the world than the United States.But quantity is not the only factor. The gap in economic power between the U.S. and China looks much closer than GDP and productivity data shows when technological and innovation potential is accounted for through indirect measures. For example, the Economic Complexity Index constructed by Harvard’s Growth Lab suggests that China has almost caught up with the United States in the ability to sustain a diverse range of productive know-how, including sophisticated, unique capabilities, and to produce complex products that few other countries can make.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Balance Hit $7 Trillion in May //knoema.fr/gtgavpc/us-federal-reserve-balance-hit-7-trillion-in-may 2021-09-27T12:33:23Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Balance Hit $7 Trillion in May

(1 June 2020) While efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic resulted in skyrocketing unemployment and sharp cuts in output, stimulus measures from the US Federal Reserve to limit the economic damage from the outbreak ballooned the Fed's balance sheet to a record $7.1 trillion in May. The value of the Federal Reserve's assets now exceeds 25 percent of US GDP.In the three month window from March 2020 through May 2020, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased by $2.9 trillion: Mortgage and related securities holdings increased by $0.5 trillion, US treasury holdings by $1.6 trillion, and lending to financial firms and markets by $0.4 trillion. In addition, the Federal Reserve provided $0.4 trillion liquidity to foreign Central Banks to support global markets. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Migrants and Wealth: What is the Long-Term Effect? //knoema.fr/xxqnrxg/migrants-and-wealth-what-is-the-long-term-effect 2021-08-19T05:28:23Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Migrants and Wealth: What is the Long-Term Effect?

(09 August, 2021)  The inflow of immigrants and migrant workers is often perceived extremely negatively by the existing population of a region, due to expectations that immigrants may represent a threat to cultural values, security, and availability of jobs, not to mention the fact that working migrants and some immigrants often send the largest share of their income back to the country of origin, which can undermine the stability of balance of payments. Is the negative attitude toward the inflow of migrants justified from the point of view of long-term economic development? Let's take a look at what data shows.We compared the change in per capita GDP and the change in share of foreign and foreign-born persons in the population over the last thirty years for the highest-income countries, the largest economies, and countries with the largest stock of foreign migrants, excluding economies highly dependent on oil and gas exports*. The data shows that a higher increase in the share of stock of foreign migrants in a population from 1990 to 2019 is associated with a higher increase in per capita income, suggesting that the long-term effect of immigrant and migrant inflow on the growth of personal wealth of the established population is most likely positive. *Per capita income in economies highly dependent on oil and gas exports is mostly determined by the oil and gas world price movements, which makes difficult to estimate the impact of other factors.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Eurozone: Governments Are Paying Less for Higher Debts //knoema.fr/lqbsckg/eurozone-governments-are-paying-less-for-higher-debts 2021-08-17T13:33:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Eurozone: Governments Are Paying Less for Higher Debts

(05 August 2021) To support the economy and health systems during the coronavirus crisis, governments had to increase spending, financing the increase mostly with growing debt. However, buildup in government debt doesn't necessary lead to the deterioration of fiscal stability, at least not in the short term. Eurozone countries, which on average increased government debt by 14% of GDP during 2020, now pay even less to serve higher debts than they did before the pandemic began.In 2020, government debt in eurozone countries increased by an average of 14.1 percentage points, to 98.4% of GDP. In 14 of the 19 eurozone countries, government debt increased by more than 10 percentage points. Government debt interest expenditures in the eurozone declined from 2.4% in 2019 to 1.5% of GDP in 2020, despite the increase in overall debt. For individual eurozone countries the decrease in interest expenditures ranged from 0.4 to 1.8 percentage points.Paying less total interest despite larger amounts of debt has become possible due to extremely low government bond yields. To keep government bond yields low, the European Central Bank has been purchasing public sector securities since the start of pandemic under the pandemic emergency purchase program and public sector purchase program. Since March 2020, the ECB has already purchased 1.6 trillion euro of government debt.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
505 Economics | Monthly GDP Estimates at Local Level //knoema.fr/xwoynp/505-economics-monthly-gdp-estimates-at-local-level 2021-08-11T17:40:36Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/6481950
505 Economics | Monthly GDP Estimates at Local Level

(30 June 2021) According to 505 Economics, most sub-national regions of the United Kingdom — referred to as NUTS 2* regions — responded uniformly to the first lockdown in April 2020, with economies contracting by approximately 20%. A similar pattern could be seen at a more granular NUTS 3 level*. However, local economies (NUTS 3) do not appear to have returned to pre-COVID levels of economic growth. As opposed to Eurostat or national statistics offices who provide national GDP estimated on a quarterly basis and subnational — on an annual basis, 505 Economics provides monthly estimates of GDP at a local level for 26 European countries. They use high-resolution satellite imagery and transform luminosity data into GDP estimates using machine learning.      *NUTS or Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics is the European Union's geocode standard for referencing the subdivisions of countries for statistical purposes.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/6481950
Productivity Growth in the 21st Century is Still Driven by Industrialisation //knoema.fr/xffopvc/productivity-growth-in-the-21st-century-is-still-driven-by-industrialisation 2021-08-05T14:06:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Productivity Growth in the 21st Century is Still Driven by Industrialisation

(30 July 2021) What drives economic growth? Economists give a variety of answers to this question, ranging from cheap labor or endowment with ample natural resources to institutional environment and the development of digital technologies. The answer policymakers choose determines economic policy, which ultimately affects how different sectors of the economy develop. Since the industrial revolution, development of the real sector (which includes agriculture, manufacturing, construction and transportation) has been the key to rapid growth in productivity and fast economic growth. Today the real sector's share in most countries' GDP has substantially declined, while the service sector, even in many low-income countries, accounts for the largest share of GDP. The question for economic policy today is: Can the service sector, which includes trade, business, professional, and government services as well as healthcare and education, play the same role today as the real sector did in the past as an engine for economic growth? Some economists insist that deindustrialisation doesn't affect economic growth negatively, since the real driver of growth is now the service sector. Let's look at what data shows. In this dashboard, we investigate which major sectors of the economy drive the growth of per capita income — a proxy for productivity, which, together with the growth of population, determines overall economic growth. We focus on productivity here because this component of growth is susceptible to the influence of economic policy, while government policy is less likely to significantly influence demographic trends.Development of the service sector, which contributed to high per capita income growth in 1980-2000, has decelerated the growth of personal wealth in the last two decades. Since 2000, per capita income has been growing more slowly in economies where the service sector has the highest share in GDP.Data shows that in the last two decades per capita income grew faster in economies where the real sector represents a higher share.The contribution of mining activities to productivity growth is determined by long-term commodity price movements. Periods of positive correlation between per capita income growth and the mining sector's share in GDP coincide with periods of rising energy prices. On the one hand, this result is expected. By its very nature, the service sector provides less opportunity for productivity growth: how do we increase the productivity of a school teacher who graduates 60 students each year throughout his or her working life? Accurate measurement of productivity in many service industries is a major headache for economists. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that despite all the expectations that the services sector can be an "unlimited" source of high-paid jobs creation, real sector seems to constitute the strongest basis for sustained productivity growth.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Vaccination May Not Be a Panacea for Economic Growth //knoema.fr/hycvhwe/vaccination-may-not-be-a-panacea-for-economic-growth 2021-08-04T11:13:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Vaccination May Not Be a Panacea for Economic Growth

(26 May 2021) From the time that the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy in the first quarter of 2020, progress in vaccination and vaccine efficacy have been cited by international organizations and research institutions as a key factor for economic recovery.   The first COVID-19 vaccination programs launched in December 2020, and by the end of March 2021 countries like Israel, the UK, and the US had already made considerable vaccination progress. An analysis of the latest available data on retail sales, industrial production, and vaccination progress for 30 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries allows us to test the hypothesis about vaccinations' role in economic recovery.Volume indices of industrial production and retail sales for OECD countries show that consumer demand and industrial production had recovered to pre-pandemic levels by January 2021, long before vaccination could help any country reach herd immunity.A comparison of vaccination progress (measured as the total number of vaccinations per 100 population) at the end of March 2021 with growth of industrial production and retail sales in March 2021 compared with January -February 2020, looking at 30 OECD countries, provides little evidence that the pace of economic recovery depends on the pace of vaccinations. The economies of Israel, the UK, and the US, which outpace other countries in the vaccination race, are experiencing the same speed of recovery as many other countries with much more modest vaccination progress. The pandemic is undoubtedly having a serious negative impact on some industries like international tourism and passenger aviation. Nevertheless, data suggests that the global economy had adapted to COVID-19 before vaccines could have noticeable positive health and economic impact.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI International | The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of the Global Economy //knoema.fr/fdhvjmb/queri-international-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-future-of-the-global-economy 2021-07-28T17:09:08Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI International | The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of the Global Economy

(15 January 2021)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. In a world where the policy responses to COVID-19 vary from indifference to economic shut-ins for weeks and months at a time, the result is an economic reality that feels akin to wartime disruption.  The nature of the COVID-19 disruption is utterly unique. Some sectors of the economy are closed down or severely restricted while others are left to work as they see fit. Because of interlinkages between economies, only a modeling system capable of allowing for the interindustry links as well as global linkages to manage some of the impacts and assumptions outside of economic factors can offer the possibility of projecting the economic effects. Quantitative Economic Research International (QuERI) offers one such model, with a sector specific approach that may be better suited to analyzing the effect of a government induced shutdown and reopening of economies. General adjustment factors in the QuERI model are developed based on the degree of virus and the stage of development to disturb the model’s baseline (December, 2019) result.  Below we consider the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic through a macroeconomic lens, including adjustments to gross domestic product, private consumption, business investment, government expenditures, exports and imports, as well as financial variables, including prices, exchange rates, and interest rates.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Globalization: Small Countries are Gaining //knoema.fr/zoaapkf/globalization-small-countries-are-gaining 2021-07-12T06:40:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Globalization: Small Countries are Gaining

(06 July 2021) Globalization — the reduction of barriers to international trade and cross border capital and labor flows — has been a major driver for the global economy in the past few decades. The rise of the global economic model has undeniably provided benefits, but the degree of success differs across countries. To measure how different countries have fared in the more economically open world, we compared the ratios of countries' per capita GDP to the US per capita GDP in 1990 and 2019. The change in the ratio over the last 30 years reflects how countries improved or lost their position in the global economy.The cross-country comparison shows that small non-energy-exporting countries in Europe and Asia — like Macao (special administrative region of China), Ireland, Luxembourg, Singapore, and South Korea — were the most successful in the global competition.On the other hand, the relative economic strength of oil- and gas-exporting countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain deteriorated the most.The US's major geopolitical rivals, China and Russia, achieved more GDP per capita growth than the US, while large western European economies held relatively steady in comparison with the US.With a few exceptions, the relative economic power of most countries in Africa and the Americas either deteriorated, as in Brazil, South Africa, and Algeria, or held steady.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Corporate Income Redistribution Plan May Increase Multinational Enterprises' Tax Burden by $150 Billion //knoema.fr/egfelzb/corporate-income-redistribution-plan-may-increase-multinational-enterprises-tax-burden-by-150-billio 2021-07-12T06:40:13Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Corporate Income Redistribution Plan May Increase Multinational Enterprises' Tax Burden by $150 Billion

(05 July 2021) At the beginning of July 2021, 130 countries and territories joined a plan, developed in negotiations coordinated by the OECD, to reform the international taxation system and ensure that multinational enterprises pay a fair share of tax wherever they operate. The plan is expected to be implemented starting in 2023. Key outcomes of the initiative:Taxing rights on more than $100 billion of profits are expected to be reallocated annually from multinational enterprises' home countries to the markets where they have business activities and earn profits, regardless of whether firms have a physical presence there.Countries have agreed to use a new global minimum corporate income tax rate of 15% to limit competition over corporate income tax.Global minimum corporate income tax is expected to generate $150 billion in additional global tax revenues annually. Ireland and some other tax havens whose current corporate tax is lower than 15% have not signed the deal, fearing an outflow of multinational enterprises from their jurisdictions. The countries currently endorsing the plan represent more than 90% of global GDP.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020? //knoema.fr/vyqviac/how-deep-an-economic-decline-can-the-world-expect-in-2020 2021-04-22T11:23:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020?

For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. Following we share our 5 key takeaways from WEO April 2020:In the baseline scenario—which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020, allowing containment efforts to be gradually unwound—global GDP will decrease by 3% in 2020 compared to the IMF's January global growth projection of 3.3%. Compare this to the 0.1% contraction in global output recorded in 2009—a figure that technically is within the range of being written off as a statistical discrepancy—and you can understand how deep cutting is what some are now calling The Great Lockdown.Given the huge drop in production, unemployment is expected to skyrocket despite the fact that many countries have developed job-saving programs. As a result of a sharp jump in unemployment, per capita income in 9 out of every 10 of the 189 IMF member countries will decrease. In the US and Eurozone, unemployment will rise from 3.7%  and 7.6% in 2019 to 10.4% this year.Even in the fast recovery scenario under which world GDP for 2021 will increase by 5.8%, the cumulative global GDP loss over 2020 and 2021 could amount to $9 trillion, a figure that exceeds the economies of Japan and Germany combined.The crisis will hit the whole world but not all countries will experience GDP declines. Among the top 20 largest economies, four will continue to grow. In 2020, Egypt, Indonesia and—of global economic importance—India and China are expected to grow in the range of 0.5% to 2%.  The Great Lockdown will be the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Based on Knoema's past look at the accuracy of economic forecasts, the depth of the economic downturn in 2020 will not necessarily align with IMF predictions. For example, in April 2009 the IMF expected world GDP would decline by 1.3% in 2009. In the end, however, the global economy avoided contraction because of strong growth in China and India.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Nigeria: Rising Unemployment and Food Prices Ignite Social Unrest //knoema.fr/jeyfune/nigeria-rising-unemployment-and-food-prices-ignite-social-unrest 2021-04-08T17:22:09Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Nigeria: Rising Unemployment and Food Prices Ignite Social Unrest

(15 January 2021)Rising global food prices, low local and global oil prices, and the high unemployment rate in Nigeria where 40% of the population already lives below the poverty line fueled record-high incidents of political and social unrest in 2020. While October was by far the most conflict-prone month, the year clocked in more than 1.5 times the number of conflicts recorded in 2019. And, while the world outside Nigeria may speculate automatically that Boko Haram is to blame, the terrorist group is responsible for only 30 percent of the uptick in conflicts.    The conflict has many costs, and 2021 will see these mature further in Nigeria as the government seeks policy avenues and external support in the wake of 2020. The economy is reeling from demand and supply shocks that have translated into stagflation - a decline of economic growth amidst high inflation and unemployment rate. During Q2 2020, Nigeria's GDP decreased by 6 percent and unemployment increased to 27 percent (compared to 23% in 2018).Headline inflation rose from 12 percent in May to 15 percent in November 2020, propelled by food supply shortages and increasing petrol prices. Given Nigeria's high vulnerability to global grain prices—net imports of cereals constitute 24% of production—rising global food prices coupled with currency depreciation disrupted domestic food supply.Demand was constrained by decreased household incomes caused by high unemployment (partly resulting from COVID-19 containment measures) as well as reduced oil exports and government spending. Supply was negatively affected by food shortages caused by rising food prices (a global phenomenon) and the depreciation of the naira. The government introduced a limited budget stimulus package (1.8% of GDP) because of Abuja's budget deficit and dwindling foreign reserves. However, due to the country's expansionary monetary policy, the overall economic response measures accounted for about 3 percent of the country's GDP during the spring-summer period. In October, when the protests became more frequent, the government increased the economic stimulus to 6 percent of GDP.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Mexico: Debit and Credit Card Transaction Data //knoema.fr/cmexjbe/mexico-debit-and-credit-card-transaction-data 2021-03-31T18:41:33Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Mexico: Debit and Credit Card Transaction Data

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Historical GDP by Country | Statistics from the World Bank | 1960-2019 //knoema.fr/mhrzolg/historical-gdp-by-country-statistics-from-the-world-bank-1960-2019 2021-03-29T06:28:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Historical GDP by Country | Statistics from the World Bank | 1960-2019

The data on GDP by country from the World Bank presented on this page covers the period for the last half of the century. Looking at the GDP figures from a historic perspective allows an understanding of what phase is the economy of a country at the moment. GDP is the single most commonly referenced figure to cover the entirety of a national economy and its trajectory in a single statistic.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP per capita by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI International | Tarnished Globalization Dreams Extend Beyond COVID for the World’s Majority //knoema.fr/nzsuayf/queri-international-tarnished-globalization-dreams-extend-beyond-covid-for-the-world-s-majority 2021-03-25T06:28:34Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI International | Tarnished Globalization Dreams Extend Beyond COVID for the World’s Majority

(13 January 2020)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. The global economic trajectory once COVID-19 vaccines are widely available and the pandemic ends appears much less promising for hundreds of millions of people than was true of the post-World War II recovery even despite the hyperconnectivity of global markets and populations today.Last year the World Bank warned that thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic for the first time in 20 years global poverty is on the rise. Between 2020 and 2021 an estimated additional 150 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty with daily income below $1.90 per day.The latest estimates based on modeling from QuERI back up the World Bank findings and show that in the post-COVID globalized order, persistent and growing poverty will set the stage for increasingly difficult social. economic, and political crises that will accompany climate change, food insecurity, and mass migration. The world has a short window to solve the problems that uncontrolled development in the decades of globalization has caused. Closing the gap for many of these poor countries is critical not just to their futures but to all.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Evidence for Chinese Economic Recession //knoema.fr/bwjxurf/evidence-for-chinese-economic-recession 2021-03-10T16:33:12Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Evidence for Chinese Economic Recession

(Published: Feb. 23 2019)

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Supply vs. Demand Based Post-Pandemic Recovery //knoema.fr/ripvslc/supply-vs-demand-based-post-pandemic-recovery 2021-03-10T07:54:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Supply vs. Demand Based Post-Pandemic Recovery

(9 March 2021) By the end of 2020 the global economy had almost recovered from the coronavirus crisis. In Q4 2020, world GDP was only 1.5% below the pre-crisis level (Q4 2019), which is a noticeable improvement compared to the 10.4% drop in Q2 2020. But these are average figures. Data from the World Bank shows that advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) demonstrate a different pace of recovery, as well as different patterns of growth: demand-based recovery in advanced economies and supply-based growth in emerging and developing countries. Unprecedented budget and monetary stimulus in advanced economies translated into the quick recovery of consumer demand. By July 2020, real retail sales exceeded the end of 2019 totals by 4.4% in these countries. In EMDEs, on the other hand, even Dec. 2020 retail sales were still 5.2% lower than the pre-crisis level.Recovery in consumer demand in advanced economies was not followed by a similar acceleration in industrial output. In Dec. 2021, industrial production in advanced economies was 2.1% lower compared to the previous year, while in EMDEs it grew by 6.3%.In Q4 2020, output in EMDEs (driven by China) exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 1.8%, while GDP in advanced economies was still 3.1% below Q4 2019.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Public Debt: Chasing Fiscal Responsibility On a New Wave of Debt Overuse //knoema.fr/nqdbzmg/global-public-debt-chasing-fiscal-responsibility-on-a-new-wave-of-debt-overuse 2021-03-03T17:25:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Public Debt: Chasing Fiscal Responsibility On a New Wave of Debt Overuse

(3 March 2021) As governments around the world continue to battle the coronavirus, they are experiencing an unprecedented level of debt. Since the past waves of debt accumulation ended in financial crises for emerging and developing economies, experts were already highly concerned with the future sustainability of government finance, especially taking into account the size, speed, and breadth of government debt accumulation after the Great Recession. The extra build-up in global government debt during the COVID-19 pandemic only adds fuel to the fire.Disruptively excessive accumulation of public debt became possible after US President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in August of 1971. Before that, there was a natural limit to how much money could be printed. New issuances were dependent on the amount of gold sitting in the nation’s coffers. Governments tended to pay out debts, and used debts only to finance wars or support the economy during recessions.After 1971, debt was heavily exploited by governments as an instrument to boost growth through investment in infrastructure and in human and social capital. In addition, an aging population is now forcing many countries to increase social security spending, while the pursuit of global competitiveness prevents tax increases. Rising political polarization and electoral uncertainty also contribute to the build-up of government debt. While claiming to prioritize fiscal responsibility, current governments tend to be fiscally irresponsible in hope that future governments will manage to pay out debts. As a result of public debt overuse, three of four debt accumulation waves in the last fifty years ended in financial crises, according to a World Bank report. And the ongoing fourth wave is the largest, fastest, and most broad-based increase in debt observed since 1971.  

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Cryptocurrency: "The Digital Tulip"? //knoema.fr/vwqbwsd/cryptocurrency-the-digital-tulip 2021-02-25T10:30:05Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Cryptocurrency: "The Digital Tulip"?

(22 February 2021) During the last five months, the price of Bitcoin increased more than five times - from $10,000 to over $50,000 while the global cryptocurrency market capitalization topped $1.7 trillion. When it comes to traditional assets, such a rapid rise in the value of an asset typically indicates the emergence of a financial bubble. But, what about cryptocurrencies?Against the tsunami of cryptocurrencies' market capitalization increase, financial bubbles of the past look like small and mid-size waves, historically adding 40 to 440 percent to the asset value. The value of global cryptocurrency markets increased almost 900% from March 2020 to today.When do bubbles usually reach their peaks? In looking at past bubbles,  the longest time period is four years with an elongated period experienced by the real assets markets. If the cryptocurrency bubble is compared with digital asset bubbles, like the Dotcom and Biotech bubbles, it may peak 13-21 months after the bubble started to blow or between March and December 2021. Is this time different? Well, we don't know the answer. Since the famous "tulip mania" bubble in 1636-37 economists have not yet found reliable tools for forecasting bubbles. Super-easy monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policies in the US and around the world coupled with the accessibility of financial instruments and stock exchanges for a wide range of non-professional investors may make this "digital tulip" bubble different than bubbles of the past. These factors make it more difficult to predict how much the peak value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can exceed their fundamental price levels defined by the cost of coin mining and infrastructure maintenance.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Macroeconomic forecasting performance of the five major forecasting agencies //knoema.fr/phxqofc/macroeconomic-forecasting-performance-of-the-five-major-forecasting-agencies 2021-02-23T15:41:45Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Macroeconomic forecasting performance of the five major forecasting agencies

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Regional Outlook: Russian Ruble Moves to a New Equilibrium //knoema.fr/qdjjkvd/knoema-regional-outlook-russian-ruble-moves-to-a-new-equilibrium 2021-02-23T15:33:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Regional Outlook: Russian Ruble Moves to a New Equilibrium

(7 October 2020)  The depreciation of the Russian ruble by 26 percent against the US dollar since March 2020 directly relates to a reduction in the trade balance and capital outflows by the private sector in the wake of anti-COVID lockdowns and a drop in global energy demand and prices. Analysis of the monthly balance of payment statistics from the Central Bank of Russia suggests the outlines of a new equilibrium for the ruble:Russia's current account balance since April has shrunk to zero.At the same time, the Russian Central Bank has cut the policy rate from 6.25 percent to a record low 4.25 percent, which has in turn lowered returns on foreign short-term investment into Russian debt securities and contributed to the outflow of capital to the tune of $4-5 billion per month.Without further intervention from the Russian Central Bank, we estimate that foreign currency flows will rebalance if imports decrease by $4 billion per month, which equates an exchange rate of about 85 rubles per $1 (assuming each 1% depreciation of the ruble corresponds to a 1% decrease in imports). As a policy matter and economic imperative, the Russian Central Bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to prevent the weakening of the ruble to 85 rubles per $1. Despite 30 percent YoY decrease of exports during the March-July 2020 period, Russian foreign exchange reserves grew to a record $595 billion by the end of August 2020, mainly due to the increase in gold prices.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros //knoema.fr/pkahmsc/queri-the-us-federal-debt-outstanding-is-just-a-number-27-and-12-zeros 2021-02-15T06:10:30Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros

(02 February 2021) Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. In November 2020, US voters went to the ballot box and sent a Democrat back into the White House to stare down a federal deficit that grew under President Trump from $19 trillion in January 2016 to more than $27 trillion the day that Joe Biden was inaugurated. As you can imagine, the deficit hawks are out in force once again. The usual argument against more deficit spending, even in the midst of a disaster like the COVID-19 shutdown and prevailing economic conditions, is that the US can’t afford to spend that kind of money.   For true deficit hawks it’s this idea of repaying the debt, of the burden on future generations, that leads to the ideal of fiscal conservatism. So, let’s pull that thread, as they say: If the United States were to adopt that logic and start down this repayment path, given the way the US allocates discretionary and non-discretionary expenditures, what options are available today?The US Department of Defense is the largest single discretionary expenditure in the Federal budget, a $750 billion budget item and growing. If you were to cut that in half and use the savings to pay down debt, in addition to trimming around the edges of discretionary social programs to the tune of another $25 billion, you could maybe net $325 billion to pay down the debt (after accounting for social assistance for jobs lost to cuts in the defense sector.) But this is not enough to slow the increase in the size of the debt outstanding because we still have to pay interest.  If we turn to non-discretionary spending, we find that most of the money for Medicare and Medicaid goes to the oldest and frailest and the most costly to keep alive. So, what, we'd phase out government payments for people over 85? Gradually raise the retirement age and collect social security payroll taxes on all income earned without a cap, not cutting taxes? It is interesting how when you start to study the debt question and pull in the details over the past 40 years of debt, GDP, and interest rates, and match it against who was the US President at the time, everything becomes much clearer. So, too, does an essential point about the debt overhang and what it does or does not mean for an economy like the United States. Rather than focus on debt, we should also consider the relative usefulness of deficit spending, e.g the relative value of each dollar of debt to the change in GDP. Failure to spend is very likely more dangerous than spending too much. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Lebanon: Official Statistics Masking End Game for Near Term Growth? //knoema.fr/zvegzxb/lebanon-official-statistics-masking-end-game-for-near-term-growth 2021-02-02T08:56:54Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Lebanon: Official Statistics Masking End Game for Near Term Growth?

(18 May 2020) Lebanon now has a budget deficit of approximately 10% of GDP, negative trade and current account balances of 20%, and government and external debts in excess of 150% of GDP - and yet somehow Lebanon has accumulated over $50 billionof foreign reserves. Something here does not add up. To sustain such “financial engineering” Banque du Liban in the mid-1990s started to attract US dollars from Lebanon’s diaspora and from around the Middle East by offering ruinously high exchange rates. And, yet, no matter how the economy was financed to date, it seems that Lebanon's decades of prosperity are now under direct threat.Foreign funding that vanished last year pushed banks to limit withdrawals and led the Lebanese pound to lose about two-thirds of its value.  The pound depreciated to 4,200 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar in parallel markets compared to the official exchange rate of 1,500 pounds/US dollar.And, these macroeconomic figures fail to show the complete picture. Some indicators are outdated, while others—such as CPI inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates—are under the government's control/influence and create a sense of stability.   2020 has been no better for Lebanon's economy and the outlook so far is bleak. Accelerating inflation and growing unemployment have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 lockdown.According to Social Affairs Minister Ramzi Moucharafieh, some 70-75% of the population required aid after the economic crisis was exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.In early April, the IMF revised the 2019 GDP growth estimate to -6.5% from October 2019's estimate of essentially zero growth.The IMF now expects Lebanon's economy will plummet 12% this year, and, as a clear signal of the high uncertainty that has enveloped Lebanon's economy, the IMF did not publish a 2021 growth forecast for Lebanon.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal" //knoema.fr/qdyufig/prosper-insights-and-analytics-us-consumer-are-getting-used-to-new-normal 2021-01-27T13:09:54Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal"

(Updated: 18 Jan 2021; Originally published: 15 June 2020) January 2021 consumer survey data from Prosper Insight and Analytics demonstrates that US consumers are getting used to their new lifestyles and have shifted from wishing for the pandemic to go away to just dealing with the “new normal”. Consumer Spending. US consumer confidence took a big hit in January as consumers looked ahead to the next few months. The US economy is sending so many mixed signals right now that you might be better off consulting a psychic rather than using traditional measures to get a handle on its trajectory. Consumer confidence dropped -12.6 percent (500 bps) from December 2020 to January 2021.Consumer Confidence. Unlike consumer confidence, consumer mood (aka consumer sentiment), increased 0.6 percent (60 bps) in January. Prosper’s Consumer Mood Index is a composite measure of 10 factors including how people feel about family, finances, health, relationships and more to gauge sentiment.Consumer Sentiment. In another sign of consumer schizophrenia, Prosper’s Consumer Spending forecast shows a slight downward trend coming out of the holiday season, decreasing -2.3 percent (-186 bps). As we are learning, consumers are finding some different categories to spend their money on. Consumer softlines are trending down while hardlines like home remodeling and related categories are doing much better.  Just hang on for a potential case of “consumer spending whiplash” as President Elect Biden announced an additional one-time payment to supplement the $600 that was sent out previously with an extra $1,400 per adult family member and more for households with children. Some economists are afraid this amount of economic stimulus may provide a big jolt, changing the current trajectory of the economy a bit too quickly. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Uganda construction price index //knoema.fr/ggfuhv/uganda-construction-price-index 2021-01-22T08:55:41Z Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Uganda construction price index

Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Uganda Population //knoema.fr/ltjkvvf/uganda-population 2021-01-22T07:38:31Z Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Uganda Population

Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans //knoema.fr/rrwrenc/prosper-insights-retailers-beware-us-consumers-changing-their-holiday-spending-plans 2021-01-18T14:17:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans

(20 October 2020)  Despite unprecedented government stimulus packages in the wake of COVID-19, the latest data shows that consumer demand remains subdued and is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels ahead of the winter holiday season. "Consumers are taking advantage of a variety of offerings from retailers this holiday season including earlier sales promotions and shipping options,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Consumers are focusing on making the holidays special for others but are playing it by ear when it comes to those ‘extra’ items they might get for themselves.” As online sales have skyrocketed during the pandemic, it comes as no surprise that the majority (60%) of consumers say they plan to purchase holiday items online this year. Nearly all (91%) online shoppers plan to take advantage of free shipping, while another 44 percent plan to use buy online, pick up in store and 16 percent plan to use same-day deliver, according to the Holiday Spending Survey from Prosper Insights and Analytics. Additional highlights from Prosper's October consumer survey:The percentage of respondents that planned as of October to celebrate winter holidays in general decreased 4.1 p.p. from last year to 87.4 percent, which is a record low since 2007 when Prosper began collecting this data.While the average consumer's spending on holiday gifts for their family will be relatively unchanged from last year ($468), at constant 2007 dollars, that's actually 2.6 percent less than the 2009 winter holiday season, when the United States was coming out of the global financial crisis.The share of spending in the '$100 or less' bracket will increase by about 2 percent, displacing spending in the '$100-$500' bracket.On average a record 60 percent of all holiday shopping will be done online, a growth of 8 p.p. from the last year. The share of consumers who intend to do 100% of their shopping online also is on the rise, expected to increase to 8% in 2020 compared to 3.6 percent in 2019.Gift cards remain the most desired gift, according to respondents, although more people compared to last year said they would like to receive home decor and improvements items.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
COVID-19 Dynamics Threaten Prolonged Recession in Japan and South Korea //knoema.fr/nomffcc/covid-19-dynamics-threaten-prolonged-recession-in-japan-and-south-korea 2020-12-25T05:32:09Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
COVID-19 Dynamics Threaten Prolonged Recession in Japan and South Korea

(17 December 2020) Until recently Korea and Japan were considered among a select few countries to represent the gold standard in the COVID-19 containment response, even if the world had barely begun to understand what exactly they did right. Early information suggests timely implementation of contact tracing along with well-established habits of wearing face masks, particularly in Japan, contributed. Now it seems that by slingshotting from strict protocols to the most lax among major world economies, COVID-19 is outstripping and perhaps overwhelming previously successful containment strategies. The economic slow down, which in the first half of 2020 was largely attributable to disruptions in global supply chains and suppressed foreign demand, could be prolonged into the first quarter of 2021 due to new anti-COVID restrictions. As of mid December 2020, new daily COVID-19 cases per million population in South Korea and Japan increased to 18 and 21, respectively, nearly double the previous peaks in each country. Compared the world's other largest economies the speed of the COVID-19 spread is still relatively low but on par with countries such as India and Indonesia.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Winter 2020 OECD Economic Outlook - Turning Hope into Reality //knoema.fr/bknxqod/winter-2020-oecd-economic-outlook-turning-hope-into-reality 2020-12-24T05:08:42Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Winter 2020 OECD Economic Outlook - Turning Hope into Reality

(7 December 2020) Vaccination campaigns, concerted health policies, and government financial support are expected to lift global GDP by 4.2 percent in 2021 after an estimated 4.2 percent decrease this year. The latest 2020 global GDP estimate is an upward revision even despite concerns expressed by the OECD in the June Economic Outlook that the world economy could contract to the tune of 6-8 percent depending on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. The OECD anticipates a stronger economic recovery in 2021 if vaccines roll out quickly, boosting confidence and lowering uncertainty.China will be the only country among the world's largest economies with a positive GDP growth rate in 2020 (1.8%) and is expected to surpass its economic peers again in 2021 with an 8 percent GDP growth rate.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
US Box Office Revenues Point to Long Road to Recovery for Services Sector //knoema.fr/dfevsj/us-box-office-revenues-point-to-long-road-to-recovery-for-services-sector 2020-12-22T06:54:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Box Office Revenues Point to Long Road to Recovery for Services Sector

US domestic box office revenues—a new so-called alternative leading indicator of economic health—predicted the oncoming US economic recession about one month before traditional composite leading indicators pointed to a downturn. Now as the US economy gradually reopens, box office revenue will be tracked as a leading indicator of recovery in the US services sector, which accounts for 80% of all US jobs.As of late April, a handful of US movie theaters started screening films again for the public after local and state officials eased state-at-home orders. In the 5-week period starting May 1, 2020, weekly domestic box office revenues more than tripled but still remained less than 1% of revenues for the same 5-week period of 2019.Box office revenue trends illustrate a slow recovery of the services sector that will almost certainly lag recovery of the real sector. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Recession Is Coming. But Not In 2020. //knoema.fr/pekgnud/global-recession-is-coming-but-not-in-2020 2020-12-21T08:54:54Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Global Recession Is Coming. But Not In 2020.

While we are not in the business of making predictions or calls on the economy, we have some data in our repository that currently contradicts what many of the pundits in the media are saying about a global recession. You be the judge!   Below we outline in data five reasons why a global economic recession is not an absolute for 2020. We focus largely on China and the United States because recession in either of these two countries would very likely spur a global economic crisis. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
78th session of the Committee on Housing and Land Management and Ministerial Meeting //knoema.fr/miybmhb/78th-session-of-the-committee-on-housing-and-land-management-and-ministerial-meeting 2020-12-17T22:09:30Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
78th session of the Committee on Housing and Land Management and Ministerial Meeting

Among other things, the biennial session of the full UN Economic Commission for Europe is expected to adopt the Geneva UN Charter on Sustainable Housing negotiated under the auspices of the UNECE's Committee on Housing and Land Management (CHLM). The Charter is to be a UNECE contribution to the Third UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat III).  Date of Event: 8-10 November 2017 Location: Geneva, Switzerland Event Holder: UNECE

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
United States Short Term Economic Profile: Real Sector //knoema.fr/aqzlsce/united-states-short-term-economic-profile-real-sector 2020-12-17T21:49:51Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
United States Short Term Economic Profile: Real Sector

United States | Japan | European Union | Euro Area | Germany | Italy | France | United Kingdom | Australia | Argentina | Canada | Indonesia | Mexico | Saudi Arabia | Korea | Turkey | Brazil | Russia | South Africa | China | India  Real Sector | Financial Sector | Foreign Sector | Prices and Unemployment GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Building Permits, Leading Index, Median Price for New Houses

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Global Events and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index //knoema.fr/atktfke/global-events-and-the-economic-policy-uncertainty-index 2020-12-16T09:48:57Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Global Events and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

Every day events around the world cause ripple effects that affect global, national, and local levels of economic and political uncertainty. Recent mainstream examples include US sanctions against Venezuela, Brexit, the partial US government shutdown, protests in France, and the US-China trade war. As uncertainty rises, we observe markets responding, whether you're tracking stock prices, commodity prices, or even interest rates. Today we have another more comprehensive measure available to monitor these effects: the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Developed by a group of American finance and business school professors, the Index estimates the level of uncertainty within an economy based on the volume of newspaper articles containing terms related to economic and policy uncertainty. This news-based index can also contribute to overall country risk estimations and market potential assessments. Historical data from the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index* shows a significant relationship between index spikes and world events. For instance, the US index showed a high level of uncertainty after the failure of Lehman Brothers—a global financial services firm that filed for bankruptcy in 2008—and the 2016 US presidential elections, while the UK index spiked recently in the midst of Brexit.   *The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index value represents an index to a mean of 100 from 1997 to 2015 for an average of national indices for 20 countries, 16 of which rank among the top 20 countries globally by GDP.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
The Russian Coronacrisis Economic Miracle //knoema.fr/lhbvgn/the-russian-coronacrisis-economic-miracle 2020-12-16T09:46:38Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Russian Coronacrisis Economic Miracle

(28 July 2020)  The Russian economy has demonstrated a miraculously resilient recovery from coronavirus. It is the only economy among the top 10 largest economies globally for which industrial production declined less than 10% year-over-year during its coronavirus lockdown. While it’s true that Russia is among the countries least hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, that’s certainly at least in part thanks to the Russian Government taking one of the most stringent approaches to containing the virus. But with tight restrictions should come a need for economic stimulus, or so suggests the experience elsewhere globally. And yet Moscow’s announced COVID-19 stimulus package so far is among the smallest offered by the world’s largest economies - just 2.6% of GDP compared to 4.5% in China and over 10% in the United States and Europe. How then do we explain the Russian coronavirus recovery “miracle”? To point to any single factor for a system as complex as an economy is futile. Instead, we will point you to several characteristics of the Russian economy that contribute to its coronavirus resilience.Extremely low representation of small businesses in GDP. Given the vulnerability of small business during COVID-19 lockdowns, countries with lower economic contributions from small businesses suffered less.Overrepresentation of state owned enterprises. About 70% of the Russian economy is controlled by state owned enterprises or corporations with large government stakes. These companies continued paying wages during the lockdown.Relatively lower share of services in GDP, especially compared to developed economies, including tourism, education, and healthcare. The consumption of these services requires in person contact that is impossible during lockdown.Relatively lower share of investment goods in industrial production. In any economic crisis, investments are hit harder than consumer demand and demand for intermediates.Limited nature of global economic integration and dependencies. Russia's exports of primary resources such as fossil fuels, metals, basic chemicals, and fertilizers are its key foothold in the global economy. Global demand for these commodities (even after OPEC+ deal) decreased by less compared to investment goods and consumer durables. And, as Russia is much less integrated into the global market compared to developed and major developing countries, domestic producers are less sensitive to disruptions of global value chains. Moscow decreed a low unemployment scenario. Russian businesses were ordered to prevent layoffs. Whether this decree alone is responsible, Russia's unemployment rate increased only 2 percentage points from its pre-crisis level compared to a more than 10 percentage point jump in the United States.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Global Economic Outlook | Q2 2020 Explained //knoema.fr/wxfgphc/knoema-global-economic-outlook-q2-2020-explained 2020-12-14T19:25:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Global Economic Outlook | Q2 2020 Explained

(14 October 2020)  The corona-crisis is different from past economic recessions in that it has touched all economies without exception. But if we look from economy to economy, we quickly observe that the economic consequences of the corona-crisis are far from uniform. To understand why, for example, GDP in Korea dropped just 2.8% YoY in Q2 2020 while India experienced a 23.9% YoY contraction, we collected key macroeconomic indicators for Q2 2020 for the world's 15 largest economies. At first blush the data was disappointing, because the economic strain appeared again to be rather heterogeneous across countries, with a spread of more than 20 percentage points of GDP growth. And, as expected, we found that GDP growth differences among countries could be explained by differences of household consumption and fixed capital investment growth rates, two GDP components that combined account for 70-90 percent of GDP.  Where the macroeconomic data for Q2, what we consider to be the depth of the corona-crisis, is more revealing and in some cases counterintuitive is within those indicators driving consumption and investment behavior. Here were our key findings:The more stringent the COVID-19 restrictions imposed by governments, the more household consumption declined. A phenomenon we attributed to tighter restrictions leading to more job losses, less income.The service sector, overrepresented by small businesses, has suffered acutely during the pandemic because of restrictions on activities that involve person-to-person interactions. As result, economies with the larger share of services sector has been hit harder by pandemic.The efficiency of government fiscal stimulus programs, including money transfers and tax incentives, is inconsistent at best and somewhat counterintuitive in practice. For the United States, Japan, and Germany, stimulus programs appear to have prevented more severe economic downturns than were faced in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The data also reveals that the tighter the anti-covid restrictions, the less fiscal stimulus (as % of GDP) governments issued. (Japan is a case in point and one that we're interested in exploring further.) This phenomena can be partly explained by relatively higher costs of government borrowing in developing countries which imposed the more stringent restrictions compared to developed countries.We also found that in some cases exports were more resistant to external shocks than were imports. Exports in Russia and Brazil even grew slightly in Q2, which, combined with a decrease in imports, helped support those economies. Other factors, such as non official prohibitions to lay off employees and the share of the government sector in the economy, could also have played important supporting economic roles but these factors are hard to quantify and are not covered in this macroeconomic data collection.  

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
How the Third Wave of COVID-19 Turns Into an L-Shaped Global Recession //knoema.fr/zfjufbf/how-the-third-wave-of-covid-19-turns-into-an-l-shaped-global-recession 2020-12-09T18:47:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
How the Third Wave of COVID-19 Turns Into an L-Shaped Global Recession

(28 May 2020) In early April, the IMF predicted that the world economy would contract by three percent in 2020, a prediction it made when the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in many developing countries was still highly unclear. Today we know much more. By early May, the COVID-19 pandemic moved into the remaining areas of Asia and Latin America, with aggressive lockdowns sparing some countries the worst while in other major economies, including India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, cases have since risen 10 times on average.    Below we share insights from our examination of the data and the consequences local decisions could have for the global economy.  Spoiler alert: We estimate that the world economy may contract by double that of the early IMF predictions, using core Eurozone economies as a benchmark of the pandemic to economic recovery model and with consideration of the government health policies of countries in Latin America and the Rest of Asia. These estimates are highly sensitive to our underlying assumptions related to the length of lockdowns, evolution of the pandemic, and economic losses due to the pandemic, and are meant only to encourage discussion and further evaluation of the available data. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
OECD Forecasts: COVID-19 Economic Outlooks are Dire Worldwide //knoema.fr/ydeilgc/oecd-forecasts-covid-19-economic-outlooks-are-dire-worldwide 2020-12-03T12:25:40Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
OECD Forecasts: COVID-19 Economic Outlooks are Dire Worldwide

(15 June 2020) With 'uncertain' being the best anyone can say of the trajectory of COVID-19 globally, the OECD has attempted to delve into what the future may hold for the global economy, using two scenarios: single hit and double hit.  One critical, overarching finding of the scenario-based OECD forecasts is that the economic recovery will be “U-shaped” as opposed to the more popularly expected “V-shaped” recovery, with the time period at the bottom of the “U” varying significantly across economies.   Single-Hit Scenario: Outbreak contained during 2020 The global economy will likely contract 6% in 2020 under the single-hit scenario, returning to the pre-crisis level of 5.2% in 2021. The UK’s economy is expected to slump 11.5% in 2020, the deepest contraction among developed countries, a figure reflective of the economy’s significant dependence on receipts from the service and tourist sectors. France is close behind at 11.4%, followed by Italy (11.3%), Spain (11.1%) and Germany (6.6%). GDP growth in the United States is expected to contract by 7.3% in 2020 in this scenario, fairing better than Russia—hit hard by lower energy prices—at 8 percent. Two Asian economic giants, China and India are expected to decline 2.6% and 3.7%, rebounding to 6.8% and 7.9% in 2021. Latin American emerging markets are expected to take much deeper hits comparatively: Argentina is expected to decline 8.35% while Brazil and Mexico are expected to shrink 7.4% and 7.5%, respectively. The OECD also delved into the employment consequences within each scenario. Here, too, we see a high level of divergence across economies. While Japan is estimated at 3.2% unemployment rate in 2020 from 2.4% in 2019, the United Kingdom and the United States will not escape so easily, increasing from 3.8% in 2019 to 9% in 2020 in the United Kingdom and from 3.7% to 11.3% in the United States.   Double-Hit Scenario: A second outbreak during 2020 Under a double-hit scenario, the OECD projects that the global economy could contract 7.6% before recovering to only 2.8% in 2021.If a second wave of COVID-19 strikes in 2020, Spain’s economy is expected to take the biggest hit with a 14.36% contraction, followed by France (14.07%), Italy (14.01%), and the United Kingdom (13.96%).Moreover, GDP growth in the United States is expected to contract by 8.5% in double-hit scenario. Unemployment rates jump to double digits for more economies in the double-hit scenario and deepen still more for some countries already facing a bleak outlook in the single-hit scenario. For example, France, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom all jump from the 11% range to the 14% range between scenarios.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Russian's Seeking Security in Cash //knoema.fr/jhfmgse/russian-s-seeking-security-in-cash 2020-11-26T05:57:45Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Russian's Seeking Security in Cash

As the coronacrisis reached Russia this spring, ordinary citizens and business turned to cash to guard against the uncertainties of 2020. By early October, an estimated 12.1 trillion rubles were in circulation. While cash holdings have been on the rise for the better part of the last decade in Russia, the growth rate of cash holdings outside the banking system (a.k.a. M0) quadrupled between March (7.1%) and October (28.3%).The growth in cash holdings during the April-June period was largely COVID-related. Since mid-summer, however, Russian's were likely equally driven to withdraw cash from bank accounts by the weakening of the ruble against the US dollar and growing distrust of the banking system.Russian's were not the only ones turning to cash this year. In Brazil (the world's 8th largest economy), currency in circulation increased by almost 50 percent in August 2020 compared with the same period of the previous year.   Definitions: M0 - cash money in circulation outside the banking system. M1 - M0 + Transferable Deposits M2 - M1 + Other Deposits

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
2020 Corona (Economic) Crisis is Unlike Any Other //knoema.fr/syrnfeb/2020-corona-economic-crisis-is-unlike-any-other 2020-11-19T16:35:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
2020 Corona (Economic) Crisis is Unlike Any Other

(9 November 2020) The global economic crisis of 2020 is remarkable not only because of its depth but also its origins. After an economic decline of -1.6 percent YoY in Q1 2020, Knoema estimates that the global economy contracted by 8.9 percent YoY in Q2 2020. Taking into account that the global economy lost about 5.3 percent YoY during the first half of the year, it is now on pace for a total decrease of 4-5 percent for 2020, which is inline with October 2020 IMF estimates. So, what about the origins of this crisis? Through each of the recessions of the post-WWII period, business bore the majority of the burden by reducing investment while household consumption growth remained positive. Today the economic picture is different and at its center is a decline in household consumption that has led to large-scale economic losses around the world. Under the pressure of anti-COVID restrictions, global household consumption decreased 15% YoY in Q2, nearly on par with the decrease in investment (-17% YoY).  What should we be watching now? For the word economy, the economic recovery of China, India, and the United States will be decisive. Pre-COVID these countries combined accounted for almost 75 percent of global growth (China, 46%; India, 14%; United States, 15%). As of Q2, China had already returned to positive growth, adding 0.7 percentage point to global GDP. India and the United States remained in negative territory during the second quarter at -2 and -1.7 percentage points, respectively, weighing down the overall 2020 economic outlook even without accounting for the consequences to come from the newly surging daily cases of COVID-19.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US 3Q GDP Growth of 33%: Sign of a Strong Economy? //knoema.fr/jyfrmyc/us-3q-gdp-growth-of-33-sign-of-a-strong-economy 2020-11-13T08:51:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US 3Q GDP Growth of 33%: Sign of a Strong Economy?

(10 November 2020) In late October as the United States elections neared, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its estimate for US 3Q real GDP growth - a jaw dropping 33.1 percent. While tempting to look on in awe at the scale and speed of the economic recovery, it may not represent what you think.This figure—33%—is an annual growth rate for the entire rolling year through Q3 2021 and assumes that the quarter-over quarter growth will remain the same for the next three quarters. A glance at the first chart below shows the scale of this fluctuation from -31.4% in Q2 to 33.1% in Q3 in the context of all reported figures since 1947.A potentially more intuitive figure and certainly one that is used more commonly outside the United States is year-over-year percent change. On a year-over-year basis US GDP decreased 2.9 percent in Q3 2020, which means that for the July-September 2020 period US GDP was 2.9 percent lower than in the same period of 2019. In other words, US economic output is lower now than it was in the pre-COVID period. You may be wondering, 'Okay, well, how strong is the US economic recovery?" Relatively speaking, if we look at the world's two largest economies—China and the United States—the US is lagging. Whereas China's economy took a single quarter to return to positive year-over-year growth after the COVID shock, the US is looking at two or even three quarters to recover, assuming the fresh spike in COVID cases does not further derail recovery. In Q3 2020, US GDP was still 3.5 percent lower than in Q4 2019; in contrast, in Q3 2020, China's GDP exceeded the Q4 2019 level by 3.3 percent. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Budget: Deficits and Surpluses //knoema.fr/vkhtrbd/us-budget-deficits-and-surpluses 2020-11-11T06:44:07Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
US Budget: Deficits and Surpluses

Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues| Federal Debt Held by the Public

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Knoema Economic Global Outlook: Uncertainty Wins Out for Q4 2020 //knoema.fr/cafjhpd/knoema-economic-global-outlook-uncertainty-wins-out-for-q4-2020 2020-10-27T12:41:39Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema Economic Global Outlook: Uncertainty Wins Out for Q4 2020

(5 October 2020) It's challenging to look to 2021 and what could be while economic recovery and any sense of economic normalcy looks increasingly unlikely in 2020. The waning COVID cases of the summer months and massive economic stimulus that buoyed economists' near-term expectations have given way to harsh new realities: COVID cases have more than doubled since late August in Europe (including Russia and other former USSR countries), jumped 20% since mid-September in the United States, and taken off across the Middle East, while researchers continue working toward a vaccine and many governments are gradually returning to tighter anti-COVID restrictions.   With global economic uncertainty climbing alarmingly and governments moving toward fresh anti-COVID restrictions, we turned to the data to estimate the three month global economic outlook. Our analysis of GDP data from the World Bank and the Government Response Stringency Index from the University of Oxford shows that, on average, during Q2 a 10 point increase in the Stringency Index was associated with a 1.6 percentage point decrease in the GDP growth rate. To then estimate the influence of government response on growth, we considered three scenarios for Q4, knowing that while the economic cost is clear and evident, so too are the lives saved by these measures. But, will these be the same choices policymakers and global citizens make again if COVID persists? The lifting restrictions scenario assumes that anti-COVID restrictions are 50% less stringent in Q4 compared to Q3. Global growth* could accelerate in Q4 to 5.8% QoQ (-4.8% YoY).Under the business as "usual" scenario the stringency of government response for the rest of Q4 is unchanged compared to the early days of October. The global economy is likely to demonstrate weak recovery in Q3 and Q4, growing by 0.7 and 1.4% QoQ (seasonally adjusted), respectively, which corresponds to GDP decreases of -9.5% and -8.6% GDP YoY. The tightening restrictions scenario has governments returning to high-level Q2 restrictions to contain the pandemic. The global economy would likely go deeper into recession, decreasing by 11.1% YoY in Q4.The difference between the most optimistic (lifting restrictions) and pessimistic scenarios (tightening) is 6.3 percentage points, reinforcing the pervasive and persistent uncertainty that's taken hold in the global economy. *Growth rate of world GDP at constant 2010 US dollars

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema | Gold Standard 2.0 Readiness Index //knoema.fr/dfspmhf/knoema-gold-standard-2-0-readiness-index 2020-10-23T13:41:54Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Knoema | Gold Standard 2.0 Readiness Index

(9 October 2020) During periods of high volatility (hello, coronavirus!) governments, investors, businesses, and households alike typically seek out safe assets to protect their savings. In the absence of a magical currency impervious to the volatility of recessions, the search for stability usual returns to none other than the modern day gold standard. For governments, especially in the period since the Great Recession, this translates into more aggressive and intentional accumulation of gold within their international reserves. Setting aside the economic implications of a new gold standard, we sought to estimate countries' 'readiness' to convert currency in circulation into physical gold, which is the fundamental principle of a gold standard, by creating a Gold Standard 2.0 Readiness Index. The Index for mid 2020 shows that among the world's largest economies only Russia is more or less ready to fully implement a gold standard, needing to reduce the amount of currency in circulation by just 10% to be able to convert all of its currency in circulation into physical gold.Implementation of gold standard in the Eurozone would require reducing currency in circulation by more than double, while China, India, and the United States would need a 9-fold decrease in currency in circulation.Among the largest economies, Australia is an outlier and least prepared to convert to a gold standard. Australia's currency in circulation is more than 35 times the value of its official gold holdings.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Stimulus Responses to COVID-19 //knoema.fr/rolscxb/economic-stimulus-responses-to-covid-19 2020-10-21T08:12:18Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Stimulus Responses to COVID-19

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US States: Economic Performance Indicators //knoema.fr/mjfnfvf/us-states-economic-performance-indicators 2020-10-16T13:15:31Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US States: Economic Performance Indicators

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Fiscal Response to Coronavirus and New Debt Normal //knoema.fr/dtjvlrg/fiscal-response-to-coronavirus-and-new-debt-normal 2020-10-11T10:56:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Fiscal Response to Coronavirus and New Debt Normal

Worldwide lockdown measures in response to coronavirus have disrupted economic activity resulting in millions of job losses and bankruptcies. To soften the effects of the economic downturn, governments have announced and are implementing a variety of fiscal measures. Fiscal stimulus, whether in the form of additional government expenditures or deferral of certain payments (like taxes and social security contributions), immediately increases countries' budget deficits and are financed through a buildup of public debt. Other measures like government guarantees, liquidity assistance, and credit lines might not weaken the budget balance immediately but create contingent liabilities which might turn into actual expenses either in 2020 or later. COVID-19 fiscal measures may in some cases threaten the economic recovery of some of the hardest hit countries while also resetting what's considered 'normal' public debt burdens and the resulting assessments of economic and investment risk.Germany and Italy have provided the largest fiscal support to households and businesses among European countries, with the total stimulus estimated at 21% and 17% of GDP, respectively. Accounting for government guarantees and other liquidity assistance, the figures jump to almost 50% of GDP.  Adding in Italy's latests measures, its debt may reach more than 180% of GDP.  Given that Italy is one of the nations worst hit by the global coronavirus pandemic, the increased debt burden will significantly hinder economic recovery.According to estimates from Bruegel, a European economic think tank, in the United States and the largest European economies, fiscal responses that immediately increased public debt varies from 4% to almost 20% of 2019 GDP.  If these fiscal stimulus measures transform into government debt, the world's largest economies are poised to move into a new normal for public debt in excess of 100% of GDP leading to many years of austerity in fiscal policy.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US: Fed Cuts Interest Rates and CPI Ticked down marginally in August //knoema.fr/jindggd/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-and-cpi-ticked-down-marginally-in-august 2020-10-01T15:06:46Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US: Fed Cuts Interest Rates and CPI Ticked down marginally in August

US consumer price inflation rose 0.1 percent M-o-M in August in line with market expectations, however, lower than 0.3 percent M-o-M increase in July 2019. With falling energy costs, particularly gasoline for third month out of the past four months, overall inflation softened to 1.7 percent Y-o-Y in August from 1.8 percent Y-o-Y in July 2019.Core inflation that excludes volatile items such as food and energy grew 0.3 percent M-o-M and 2.4 percent Y-o-Y in August compared to 2.2 percent in July. The core inflation ticked up due to a sharp price jump in medical care services.Food inflation rose 1.7 percent Y-o-Y in August as compared to 1.8 percent in July 2019, whereas energy prices declined 4.4 percent Y-o-Y in August compared to a contraction of 2 percent in July 2019.The import tariff on China’s exports to the US is likely to push the inflation up in the coming months. Fed makes second rate cut in a row: Despite the favorable U.S. economic outlook with strong labour market-low unemployment and wage growth, FOMC cut the rate by 25bps due to concerns over weak global growth and unresolved trade tensions. The benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate stands in the range of 1.75 to 2 percent. The FOMC also cut its interest rate paid on overnight excess reserves by 30 bps to 1.80 percent to foster trading in the federal funds market.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
India: Record 23.9% Economic Contraction in Q1 FY2021 //knoema.fr/tmypjbf/india-record-23-9-economic-contraction-in-q1-fy2021 2020-09-15T06:50:32Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
India: Record 23.9% Economic Contraction in Q1 FY2021

(5 September 2020) As India struggles to bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control, including through the use ofstringent lockdownmeasures, the economy is collapsing. During the first quarter of what is India's 2021* financial year, the economy recorded -23.9 percent YoY growth, the worst performance since 1996 when the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation of India started reporting quarterly data. India’s GDP growth was also the worst among the world’s major economies last quarter, which in Q2 2020 ranged from -21.7 percent YoY in the United Kingdom to 3.2 percent YoY in China,  according to the OECD. On the demand side, private spending, which accounts more than half of India's GDP and is considered the economy's growth engine, decreased by 26.7 percent, reflecting significant demand shock for discretionary items.Figures were equally dismal for investment and trade. Investment demand, reflected by gross fixed capital formation, declined by 47.1 percent while exports contracted 19.8 percent and imports 40 percent as domestic demand decelerated faster than global demand.   Prospects for Economic Stimulus A mix of monetary and fiscal measures announced by the Government of India, a major share of which is liquidity support and government guarantees, has fallen short of its goals to stimulate private consumption and investment domestically. Given low goods and services tax revenue collection and the fiscal deficit target increasing to 103 percent in July FY20-21 (compared to 77.8% in July FY19-20), the GOI is unlikely to push any further big fiscal stimulus package in the coming quarter.   Note: The financial year (FY) in India begins on April 1 and ends on March 31.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Chile's Economy Becomes the Latest COVID Casualty //knoema.fr/exbwxh/chile-s-economy-becomes-the-latest-covid-casualty 2020-08-21T21:25:11Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Chile's Economy Becomes the Latest COVID Casualty

(21 August 2020) Chile's economy has responded to COVID like others globally and dropped sharply in Q2, even after eking out positive performance in Q1. Chile's GDP fell 14.1 percent YoY in Q2 after a marginal increase of 0.2 percent in Q1, marking one of its worst performances in years.From a sector-based perspective, only mining and financial services recorded positive growth. Mining grew 1.6 percent in Q2, led by higher copper extraction, while financial services grew by 2.7 percent. As elsewhere, restaurants and hotels took a devastating hit to fall by 52.8 percent, while textiles followed closely with a decrease of 51.9 percent.On the expenditure side of the equation, lower household consumption and investment factored heavily into the economy's poor performance. Household consumption declined by 4 percent, while investment, represented by gross fixed capital formation, fell by 15.1 percent.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Indonesia Suffers Steepest Economic Contraction in Two Decades //knoema.fr/wrbagef/indonesia-suffers-steepest-economic-contraction-in-two-decades 2020-08-20T19:50:36Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Indonesia Suffers Steepest Economic Contraction in Two Decades

(20 August 2020) New data out of Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, reveals that during Q2 the country experienced its deepest economic contraction since the Asian Financial Crisis (1998). Another economic casualty of COVID. (Read about the 2Q economic fates of Colombia, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.)Indonesia's gross domestic product contracted 5.32 percent YoY in Q2 against growth of 3 percent in Q1 2020. The downturn was broad based. Household spending, which contributes more than 50 percent of GDP, fell by 5.5 percent after managing growth of 2.8 percent in Q1. Investment, represented by gross fixed capital formation, decreased by 8.6 percent and government expenditure by 6.7 percent, as the government cut spending on business trips, canceled events, and hit administrative delays in executing new fiscal packages.The external figures faired still worse than domestic activity. Indonesia's exports plunged by 11.6 percent, while imports decreased 16.9 percent.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Malaysia's Economy Plunged 17% in Q2 2020 //knoema.fr/sufkfy/malaysia-s-economy-plunged-17-in-q2-2020 2020-08-19T18:24:34Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Malaysia's Economy Plunged 17% in Q2 2020

(14 August 2020) Malaysia’s economy faltered in 2Q 2020 under the burden of COVID, with GDP growth falling by 17 percent, its worst dip since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.  Malaysia is heavily dependent on trade, and both exports and imports took deep hits last quarter, falling by 21.7 percent and 19.7 percent YoY, respectively. While private expenditures declined 18.4 percent (compared to growth of 6.7% in Q1), government expenditures grew 2.3 percent (compared to 4.9% in Q1) as the government sought to bolster the economy.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
United States: Q2 2020 Marks the Single Worst Economic Quarter on Record //knoema.fr/oucibbc/united-states-q2-2020-marks-the-single-worst-economic-quarter-on-record 2020-08-03T19:39:06Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
United States: Q2 2020 Marks the Single Worst Economic Quarter on Record

(2 August 2020)  Last week the US economy experienced its deepest single-quarter decrease since the government began tracking this data in 1947. The 32.9% plunge in Q2 dwarfed the 5% decrease in Q1 2020 and the previous record single-quarter decrease of 8.4% in Q4 2008 during the global financial crisis.The contraction was widespread, emanating from reductions in consumer spending, exports, inventories, investment, and spending by state and local governments.Among the economy's loss leaders were consumer spending, the economy’s usual engine of growth, which contracted by 34.6%, and gross private investment, which contracted by 49%. Within private investment, residential spending contracted the most (38.7%) but is expected to rebound based on new record low mortgage rates.Government spending was a mixed bag. Federal spending was up 17%, as the government injected money into businesses, households and the labor market to bolster the economy. State and local government spending, however, was down by 5.6%. The economic outlook is as certain as is the trajectory of COVID, a stress point for the Trump Administration as the US closes in on the November 2020 general elections. Aiding recovery is the US Federal Reserves’ pledge to keep interest rates at or near zero, however, the path to recovery is still largely dependent on successful containment and economic strategies around COVID.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
India: Consumer Confidence Collapsed Under COVID-19 Induced Lockdown //knoema.fr/tcmzmpb/india-consumer-confidence-collapsed-under-covid-19-induced-lockdown 2020-06-15T21:48:17Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
India: Consumer Confidence Collapsed Under COVID-19 Induced Lockdown

(9 June 2020)The Consumer Confidence Index (CSI) of India touched a historic low of 63.7 in May, a far cry from the 85.6 reported just two months ago, according to survey data from the Central Bank of India. The one-year lookahead captured by the Future Expectations Index (FEI) also fell sharply to 97.9 from 115.2 in March.According to the survey, 74.4 percent of consumers felt that India's general economic situation worsened; 14.4 percent of respondents felt it improved. Sentiment toward employment was similar with 67.4 percent of the respondents feeling that employment conditions had deteriorated. Looking ahead, roughly half of the respondents felt that general economic conditions would worsen.As per consumer perception on employment,  felt that the current perception on employment against 19.2 felt improvement.  Note: In view of the COVID-19 pandemic, the CSI conducted the survey through telephonic interviews during the period May 5-17, 2020, for 13 major cities: Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Patna, and Thiruvananthapuram.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
U.S. Economy at a Glance //knoema.fr/njienhg/u-s-economy-at-a-glance 2020-05-07T06:34:03Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
U.S. Economy at a Glance

Size of U.S. Economy  

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Interest Rates //knoema.fr/yhlagm/us-interest-rates 2020-04-20T17:45:52Z Ellen Goodwin knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1593850
US Interest Rates

(16 March 2020)  On Sunday, in anticipation of the dire potential effects of the coronavirus on the US economy, the US Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rates to near zero. In addition to the one-percentage-point rate cut decrease—the second emergency rate cut so far this month—the Fed:Cut reserve requirements for 1000s of banks to zero;Announced a $700 billion quantitative easing program ($500 billion of Treasurys, $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities) that will be launched Monday with an initial a $40 billion in asset purchases;Decreased the emergency lending rate at the discount window by 125 basis points to 0.25% in addition to lengthening and loan terms to 90 days; andCoordinated with several central banks globally, including the Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland as well as the European Central Bank, to execute existing dollar swap arrangements to enhance the liquidity of the US dollar globally. All eyes now turn to market response, consumer confidence, and other leading indicators to assess the depth of the economic weakness in the United States as the coronavirus remains as yet unchecked.

Ellen Goodwin knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1593850
United States: Moving Toward Economic Recession in 2019? //knoema.fr/wykvrtb/united-states-moving-toward-economic-recession-in-2019 2020-04-05T10:59:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
United States: Moving Toward Economic Recession in 2019?

(Aug. 22, 2018) One could argue that in a world subject to the inevitability of business cycles, the United States is overdue for a recession. During the 60 year period from 1950 to 2010, the US economy experienced 10 recessions, averaging one recession every six years. In contrast, the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth was just shy of 10 years. The US is now in the midst of nine years of economic growth with the last "Great Recession" a fading memory for some. Will 2019 bring recession to the US?With the potential exceptions of asset prices and the yield curve—now at its lowest level since the last recession—standard leading indicators of economic recession paint a picture of a relatively strong US economy.Economists and investors have good cause, however, to reevaluate the predictive value of standard indicators based on the economic transformation and policy patterns of modern economies. For example, monetary policies, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, can distort the yield curve—the rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills—and potentially diminish the value of the spread as a stand-alone indicator of recession. Researchers globally continue to seek new indicators of economic strength. The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis has found that racial unemployment rate gaps are narrowest immediately preceding a recession, while researchers at the Central Bank of Norway have shown that residential investment has greater predictive value than stock returns, among other indicators.  In today's Viz of the Day, we visualize some of the current standard economic indicators so that you can evaluate the same information used by policymakers and investors to estimate the health of the US economy. Interested in learning more about economic recessions globally? You may also enjoy, 40 Years in Financial Crises.  

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Corona-Crisis Cuts Into Box Office Revenues //knoema.fr/gxjfbsf/corona-crisis-cuts-into-box-office-revenues 2020-03-31T21:45:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Corona-Crisis Cuts Into Box Office Revenues

While official estimates of US consumer demand are currently available only for January 2020, so-called 'alternative data' can help us to make preliminary estimates of how hard household consumption is being hit by the coronavirus pandemic on the basis of daily and even hourly data. Each industry is affected differently. Some, like transportation and entertainment, will suffer the most.   From the 007 Bond series to the much anticipated live Mulan, Hollywood is pushing back theatre release dates in hopes of ensuring the expected big dollar box office openings befitting movies of this caliber. And, yet, the numbers we feature below show clearly the lasting effect of this virus within the industry, a trend that will like remain for the next couple of months at least.The charts below show US domestic box office daily revenue starting from the first day of the 9th week of each year. Last Friday (20 March, 2020), box office revenues were down to $0 due to theatres closure nationwide.Box office revenue in the 11th week of 2020 (e.g. 13-19 March 2020) amounted to $59 million, which is $238 million less than could be expected from historical data.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
CFS Forum on Urbanization, Rural Transformation and Implications for Nutrition //knoema.fr/kikksrd/cfs-forum-on-urbanization-rural-transformation-and-implications-for-nutrition 2020-03-27T17:53:39Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
CFS Forum on Urbanization, Rural Transformation and Implications for Nutrition

The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) Forum on Urbanization, Rural Transformation and Implications for Food Security and Nutrition will address challenges and opportunities resulting from rapid urbanization and the transformation of agriculture, food systems and rural spaces. Building on the outcomes of reports of the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE), it will discuss areas for policy consideration, including: inclusive growth; poverty eradication; economic, environmental and social sustainability; support of local food systems and economies; and food security and nutrition. The aim of the Forum is to develop a better understanding of issues at stake and identify areas of intervention and potential roles for the CFS.       Event Holder: International Institute for Sustainable Development Source of data: Annual Macro-Economic Database, 2016, Global Food Security Index, 2016, World Development Indicators (WDI), July 2016, The Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), 2015, Poverty and Equity Database, 2015

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
GDP and alternative measures of socio-economic development //knoema.fr/szcgnuc/gdp-and-alternative-measures-of-socio-economic-development 2020-03-27T09:19:07Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP and alternative measures of socio-economic development

Gross Domestic Product and more broadly System of National Accounts were invented in the beginning of XX century to answer two questions. How much resources could be put directly to the military without the collapse of the economy? And, how deep is the recession? The first question was addressed by Russian Czar commission in the end of World War I. Simon Kuznets was working on the second question during The Great Depression. He created the first National Accounts for the United States in the late 1930's and "Gross Domestic Product" entered the language.   For decades, GDP was the measure of all things.  But as the business landscape reinvents itself, demographics shift, inequality expands, climate change gets worse and technology continues to advance at breakneck speed, GDP is struggling to stay relevant. In order to keep up with the changes brought on by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, many are arguing that we need to find a new measure to assess the health of our economies and – more importantly – the people living in them. - World Economic Forum The New Economics Foundation (NEF) five alternative indicators to measure progress in socio-economic development: Good Jobs, Wellbeing, Environment, Fairness, Health.    This dashboard allows you to compare GDP and alternative measures of socio-economic development as well as Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, which is the aggregated measure of Health, Education, Economy and Inequality performance.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Industrial Production by Country //knoema.fr/qugacac/industrial-production-by-country 2020-03-19T16:33:09Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Industrial Production by Country

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Measuring National Performance //knoema.fr/kvvkzde/measuring-national-performance 2020-03-12T01:48:47Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Measuring National Performance

Global economic and social systems are changing rapidly as a result of technology. The metrics that we use to measure national performance were primarily designed for the industrial economies of the early-mid 20th century. Gross domestic product (GDP), for example, is a measure of the value of final goods and services produced in a place over a time period. This may not be the best measurement in a economic system that is becoming increasingly digital and global, and it certainly does not holistically measure national prosperity. Performance measurement is important. Investors use GDP to assess risk and opportunity, which drives important capital allocation decisions. Policymakers use GDP to assess national performance, drive important policy and regulatory decisions. These decisions have real impacts on people’s careers, communities, and lives. Better data and metrics that more closely resemble reality are needed to facilitate better decisions and outcomes.  Do the commonly-used metrics adequately reflect growth and national performance in the modern economy? This dashboard allows you to compare GDP and several alternative measures of socioeconomic development to see how they correlate and diverge in different countries. 

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
US Retail Sales, Sept 2019 //knoema.fr/buvjjcd/us-retail-sales-sept-2019 2020-03-04T21:16:14Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Retail Sales, Sept 2019

US Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in September 2019 Contrary to market expectations, US retail sales contracted 0.32 percent MoM in seasonally adjusted terms in September compared to growth of 0.63 percent MoM in August. In annual terms, retail sales grew 4.1 percent YoY in September. The decline in retail sales was mainly driven by contraction in automobile and gasoline sales. Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales otherwise remained flat in September on MoM basis. The contraction in the retail sales coupled with moderation in job growth reflects subdued consumer spending. This could be a signal that manufacturing weakness has started to spread more broadly across the US economy. The trade war between the US and China—which led to decline in business investment and fears of recession—have made consumers more cautious. It will be worth watching development in this trend over the next few months as consumer spending accounts for 68 percent of the US economy.   Spending in Seven of the Thirteen Major Categories of Retail Sales Decreased in September  Auto retail sales contracted 0.9 percent MoM in September compared to 1.9 percent growth in August. This trend is especially noteworthy given tat buyers benefited from lower lending rates.Gasoline station sales declined 0.7 percent MoM (-1.3 percent in August).Building materials sales fell 1 percent MoM (+2.3 percent in August).Nonstore retail sales, a measure of online shopping, shrank 0.3 percent MoM (+1.2 percent in August).General merchandise store sales contracted 0.3 percent MoM (-0.2 percent in August). Select Sectors Remained Strong.  Sales in apparel, health and personal care, and furniture and home furnishings, all grew in September.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Historical GDP per Capita by Country | Statistics from the World Bank | 1960-2018 //knoema.fr/jesoqmb/historical-gdp-per-capita-by-country-statistics-from-the-world-bank-1960-2018 2020-01-29T12:19:42Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Historical GDP per Capita by Country | Statistics from the World Bank | 1960-2018

Estimation of a country's gross domestic product shows the size of its economy but does not show how wealthy on average are individuals of that country. The economic well-being of a country's citizens can be measured as a country's GDP per one inhabitant, known as GDP per capita which is usually used as an indicator of the quality of life. While gross domestic product per capita is especially useful when comparing one country to another because it accounts for the size of the country's population it is also useful in indicating the growth of economic well-being in a country through time. Monaco and Luxembourg are the leaders by the GDP per capita. The attractive tax system has made Luxembourg an ideal place not only for a number of multinational companies, especially Internet start-ups but also for high-wealth individuals. Still, the fact that Luxembourg's economy is dependent on the financial sector is in charge of the significant decline in GDP per capita which occurred during the global financial crisis.   Other GDP-related dashboards:Historical GDP by countryForecast of GDP by countryForecast of GDP per capita by country World GDP rankingWorld GDP per capita rankingWorld GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Negative Interest Rates Around the World //knoema.fr/ydinhsb/negative-interest-rates-around-the-world 2020-01-22T19:56:45Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Negative Interest Rates Around the World

(April 2017) Deterioration in the real interest rate of an economy can lead to an economic downturn. In essence, if inflation rates exceed the interest rates on lending, the profitability of commercial banks is eroded and lending to businesses and individuals dries up. As a result, the production and consumption of goods and services by these would-be borrowers falters.Most economies at some point experience negative real interest rates. During the 2014-2015 period, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela, among other economies, experienced negative real interest rates, meaning that the inflation rate exceeded the lending interest rate.Last July, US real interest rates on the 10-year Treasury bills fell below zero for the first time since 2012. For the economy more broadly, as is the case now, the United States experienced a period of relatively low real interest rates during the 1970s, with a single one-year period - 1975 - falling into negative territory (-1.28 percent). To complicate matters, the reasons for and repercussions to an economy of low or negative real interest rate depends on a myriad of other factors, including an economy's size and demographic profile, capacity and maturity of its banking system and related financial institutions, demand for safe assets, and other factors. The duration of the low or negative interest rates also affects policy decisions to guard against other economic consequences.A low real interest rate can signal that a country is a low credit risk and has a relatively stable economy, helping to boost economic growth to prevent recession or aid economic recovery. Maintained at a low rate over several years, however, with no return to stronger economic growth will probably trigger other policy responses to address the consequences of low rates throughout an economy including on the health of the banking sector and wealth distribution between economic classes.Negative interest rates, while less optimal, pose a greater threat when nominal lending interest rates are also low, as observed at various points in history in Japan, the United Kingdom, and a handful of other advanced countries.Even more economically disruptive are scenarios in which the negative real interest rate is coupled with high interest rates on lending, such as in Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Venezuela. This scenario is more common among developing economies in which banks dominate the financial system.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
US GDP Growth Forecast 2019-2024 and up to 2060 | Data and Charts //knoema.fr/qhswwkc/us-gdp-growth-forecast-2019-2024-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts 2020-01-22T11:43:21Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
US GDP Growth Forecast 2019-2024 and up to 2060 | Data and Charts

In this dashboard, we have integrated the most recent medium and long-term forecasts of key economic indicators for G20 countries from major international organizations, namely, the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, OECD, European Commission and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The data presented covers projections of real GDP growth, characterizing each country's output of final goods and services; consumer price inflation, as a measure of price level movements; unemployment rate, or percent of those willing and able to work but cannot find it; current account balance, providing an idea of a country's position in the international exchange; and, government debt, showing the relative value of government liabilities, which could affect a country's stability and confidence level.  Analysis, based on such cross-sectional data, gives a comprehensive picture of a country's performance in the "open-economy" conditions, which is becoming even more comprehensive with the use of a diverse collection of information sources. Each provider of forecasts makes its projections based on different assumptions concerning fiscal and monetary policies of the countries under review, interest and exchange rates, oil and non-oil commodity prices and so on. Taking all these factors into consideration could well help to build on even more robust future projections.   For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page: Argentina | Australia | Brazil | Canada | China | EU | Euro Area | France | Germany | India | Indonesia | Italy | Japan | Mexico | Russia | Saudi Arabia | South Africa | South Korea | Turkey | UK Or, select an economic indicator: GDP forecast | inflation forecast | unemployment forecast | current account balance forecast | government debt forecast | short term economic profile

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Economy //knoema.fr/kdrtnbc/economy 2020-01-16T18:55:42Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economy

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Recession in the European Union and Global Economy //knoema.fr/xlhgete/recession-in-the-european-union-and-global-economy 2019-12-29T12:52:11Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Recession in the European Union and Global Economy

According to LINK Global Economic Outlook, published in June 2012, GDP of the European Union will not grow in 2012. In 2011 20% of the world GDP were produced in the European Union, which accounted for more than one third of world imports. It means that the recession in the European Union will inevitably cause the deceleration of the global economy.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP at market prices, constant 2005 US$, millions, seas. adj. //knoema.fr/okvpnaf/world-gdp-at-market-prices-constant-2005-us-millions-seas-adj 2019-12-28T20:17:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World GDP at market prices, constant 2005 US$, millions, seas. adj.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Real GDP per capita index and Export value Index //knoema.fr/nnkojvg/real-gdp-per-capita-index-and-export-value-index 2019-12-21T20:20:33Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Real GDP per capita index and Export value Index

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
My Page //knoema.fr/seqcchb/my-page 2019-12-20T20:13:03Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
My Page

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Gross Domestic Product //knoema.fr/sezvjlf/gross-domestic-product 2019-12-20T14:17:56Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Gross Domestic Product

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Empoyment Rankings by Country //knoema.fr/tzazdtb/empoyment-rankings-by-country 2019-12-20T13:46:37Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Empoyment Rankings by Country

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Gross National Savings, % of GDP World Map //knoema.fr/hgepmcg/gross-national-savings-of-gdp-world-map 2019-12-20T13:46:34Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Gross National Savings, % of GDP World Map

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Western Africa - highest //knoema.fr/yejblpc/government-gross-debt-per-capita-western-africa-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:38Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Western Africa - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Southern Africa - highest //knoema.fr/gctvll/government-gross-debt-per-capita-southern-africa-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:36Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Southern Africa - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Northern Africa - highest //knoema.fr/fpmtrvb/government-gross-debt-per-capita-northern-africa-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:34Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Northern Africa - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: African countries - highest //knoema.fr/rqaeiqb/government-gross-debt-per-capita-african-countries-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:33Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: African countries - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Eastern Africa - highest //knoema.fr/qgwwbic/government-gross-debt-per-capita-eastern-africa-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:31Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Eastern Africa - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Central Africa - highest //knoema.fr/xtsyuag/government-gross-debt-per-capita-central-africa-highest 2019-12-20T12:59:30Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt per Capita: Central Africa - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
My page //knoema.fr/bnbegr/my-page 2019-12-20T11:56:56Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
My page

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Second Decade of the 21st Century is Coming to a Close - What's Ahead? //knoema.fr/dhwtqrg/the-second-decade-of-the-21st-century-is-coming-to-a-close-what-s-ahead 2019-12-19T12:02:11Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Second Decade of the 21st Century is Coming to a Close - What's Ahead?

In 2019, we gathered the data, created the visualizations, and shared with you global factors driving economic activity, socioeconomic conditions, and global events. As we move into the third decade of the 21st century, we are taking a moment to connect our insights from 2019 to our outlook on global trends that we believe will shape the world economy during the next 10 years. Here we share our top 5 trends to watch.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Downside of Globalization //knoema.fr/dlcjul/the-downside-of-globalization 2019-12-19T11:01:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
The Downside of Globalization

Over the last two decades the shift of production capacities from developed to developing countries has driven the growth of the global economy. The rise of the global model has undeniably provided benefits, but data shows that globalization has actually constricted growth in developed nations.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Brazil's Current Account Widens to 3 Percent of GDP in October 2019 //knoema.fr/lbilpae/brazil-s-current-account-widens-to-3-percent-of-gdp-in-october-2019 2019-12-02T16:49:11Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Brazil's Current Account Widens to 3 Percent of GDP in October 2019

Brazil’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to US$ 7873.97 million in October as compared to US$ 4139.03 in September 2019, exceeding market expectations. The CAD, percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) reached to 3 percent in October, highest since December 2015. Through the first 10 months of 2019, the deficit reached to US$ 45657.03 million as compared to US$ 32371.94 million deficit for the first 10 months of 2018. Thereby recording 41 percent rise in 2019 as compared to 2018. The CAD print is also impacted by recent revision in methodology for measuring historical balance of payments statistics.   Goods exports contracted 16.5 percent YoY to US$ 18301.73 million in October compared to 1.2 percent contraction in September 2019, while imports grew 7.5 percent in October compared to 17.9 percent growth in September 2019.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Exchange Rate of INR against USD //knoema.fr/cabvvkd/exchange-rate-of-inr-against-usd 2019-11-29T16:20:23Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Exchange Rate of INR against USD

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
South Africa’s Retail Inflation Declines to Lowest in October since 2011 //knoema.fr/dugudnb/south-africa-s-retail-inflation-declines-to-lowest-in-october-since-2011 2019-11-28T06:58:46Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
South Africa’s Retail Inflation Declines to Lowest in October since 2011

South Africa's headline inflation recorded 3.76 percent YoY in October as compared to 4.1 percent growth in September 2019, largely dragged down by petrol prices. While, on monthly basis it remained flat. This was the lowest print since February 2011. The current decline has pushed the inflation towards lower band of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target band of 3–6 percent. Despite the lower inflation, reasonably stable currency and subdued consumer confidence and demand. The Monetary policy committee (MPC) of SARB kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.5 percent in November 2019. As per MPC observation, the retail inflation is expected to peak at 5.3 percent in the Q1 2020 and settle at 4.5 percent in Q4 2021.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Gross Capital Formation in Qatar //knoema.fr/nsvlqcg/gross-capital-formation-in-qatar 2019-11-22T07:21:03Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Gross Capital Formation in Qatar

Gross fixed capital formation declined to QR 71.81 billion in Q1 2019 compared to QR 78.17 billion in Q4 2018. Gross fixed capital formation averaged QR 63.83 billion from Q1 2013 until Q1 2019, reaching an all time high of QR 78.5 billion in the Q3 of 2018 and a record low of QR 46.18360 billion in the Q2 of 2013.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Kilian Index of Global Economic Activity //knoema.fr/wyhljsd/kilian-index-of-global-economic-activity 2019-11-18T06:26:53Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Kilian Index of Global Economic Activity

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Seven Big Summits to Watch in 2016 //knoema.fr/lwjfxof/seven-big-summits-to-watch-in-2016 2019-11-11T20:46:05Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Seven Big Summits to Watch in 2016

The US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) recently published the "Seven Big Summits to Watch in 2016." The visualizations that follow use publicly available data to provide context about each event on the CFR list.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
India's Industrial Production Contracted 4.3 Percent in September 2019 //knoema.fr/wifbrqg/india-s-industrial-production-contracted-4-3-percent-in-september-2019 2019-11-11T17:00:09Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
India's Industrial Production Contracted 4.3 Percent in September 2019

India’s Industrial production, measured by index of industrial production (IIP), contracted 4.3 percent YoY in September compared to a revised 1.1 percent decline in August 2019, dragged down by all sectors. Earlier released data on core infrastructure industries, that accounts around 40 percent weightage in the IIP index, had suggested  the decline the industrial production. The contraction in the industrial output adds to the concerns amid slow economic growth.   Sectoral Performance of IIP: Manufacturing industries output that contributes over 77 percent to the IIP, contracted 3.9 percent YoY in September as compared to 1.6 percent growth in August 2019. Seventeen out of twenty-three manufacturing industry groups contracted in September.Electricity generation contracted 2.6 percent YoY in September as compared to 0.9 percent decline in August 2019.Mining output contracted 8.5 percent YoY in September as compared to 0.1 percent growth in previous month. Use based segment performance of IIP:Primary goods contracted 5.1 percent YoY in September as compared to growth of 1 percent in August 2019.Capital goods output contracted 20.7 percent YoY in September as compared to contraction of 21.4 percent in August 2019, reflects subdued investment activity.Consumer durables output contracted further 9.9 percent YoY in September from decline of 9.1 percent YoY in August 2019.Consumer non-durables output, a barometer for the rural economy, contracted 0.4 percent YoY in September against a growth of 3.1 percent YoY in the previous month.Infrastructure and construction goods output declined 6.4 percent YoY in September as compared to decline of 4.8 percent in previous month.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Economy grew 1.9 percent in Q3 and Fed lower the rate by 25 bps //knoema.fr/qqqhazc/us-economy-grew-1-9-percent-in-q3-and-fed-lower-the-rate-by-25-bps 2019-10-31T08:32:31Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
US Economy grew 1.9 percent in Q3 and Fed lower the rate by 25 bps

U.S. economy grew 1.9 percent saar in Q3 as compared to 2 percent in Q2 2019. The growth was slightly better than market expectations and driven by consumer spending and government spending. However, the economy grew lower than White House’s goal of 3 percent annual growth in FY2019-20.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Industrial Production in India //knoema.fr/wtgwdmc/industrial-production-in-india 2019-10-28T06:02:57Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Industrial Production in India

Industrial Production Index Contracted 1.1 Percent in August 2019 India’s Industrial production, measured by index of industrial production (IIP), contracted 1.1 percent YoY in August as compared to expansion of 4.6 percent YoY in July 2019. The contraction in the index was largely driven by manufacturing and electricity sector. In terms of use-based classification of IIP, consumer durables and capital goods contributed most to the contraction. The contraction in the industrial output adds to the concerns amid slow economic growth.   Sectoral Performance of IIP:Manufacturing industries output that contributes over 77 percent to the IIP, contracted 1.2 percent YoY in August as compared to 4.2 percent growth in July 2019. Within manufacturing sector, vehicles, trailer and semi-trailers contracted 23.1 percent, while machinery and equipment contracted 10 percent in August 2019.Electricity generation contracted 0.9 percent YoY in August as compared to 4.7 percent growth in July 2019.Mining output grew 0.11 percent YoY in August as compared to 4.8 percent YoY previous month.   Use based segment performance of IIP:Capital goods output contracted 21 percent YoY in August as compared to contraction of 7.1 percent in July 2019, reflects subdued investment activity.Consumer durables output contracted 9.1 percent YoY in August as compared to decline of 2.7 percent YoY in July 2019.Consumer non-durables output, a barometer for the rural economy, grew 4.1 percent YoY in August against a growth of 8.3 percent YoY in the previous month.Infrastructure and construction goods output declined 4.5 percent YoY in August as compared to 2.1 percent rise in previous month.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
Ghana - the fastest growing economy in 2019 //knoema.fr/hrlqyyf/ghana-the-fastest-growing-economy-in-2019 2019-10-24T18:10:50Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Ghana - the fastest growing economy in 2019

Ghana is expected to become the fastest-growing economy in the world with a GDP growth rate of 8.8 percent in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) GDP growth projections released on April 9, 2019. According to the IMF, Ghana’s macroeconomic performance has significantly improved during the last two years under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. The latest report also suggests growth was robust in the first three quarters of 2018 on the back of oil production.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Growth //knoema.fr/erwbzpf/economic-growth 2019-10-24T18:09:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Economic Growth

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Russian and World Economy Growth //knoema.fr/zehntnf/russian-and-world-economy-growth 2019-10-24T18:09:34Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Russian and World Economy Growth

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP //knoema.fr/jpfoxpg/gdp 2019-10-24T18:09:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP

"A purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio of the number of units of country A’s currency needed to purchase in country A the same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country B’s currency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among large numbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the U.S. dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or “numeraire” currency" - Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. 2005 International Comparison Program. The World Bank.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Africa at a Glance //knoema.fr/npgraqd/africa-at-a-glance 2019-10-24T18:09:21Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Africa at a Glance

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
United States GDP //knoema.fr/ogbjafc/united-states-gdp 2019-10-24T18:09:19Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
United States GDP

The United States' economy saw a strong recovery in the second quarter of 2017 measured on a quarter-on-quarter basis after a decrease of output growth in the fourth and the first quarters. Thus, U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter according to the estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Based on year-over-year growth rate though, US GDP grew at 2.08% continuing an upward trend started in the third quarter of 2016. As a result, GDP growth is estimated to reach 2.9 percent in 2018. IMF revised down projections for 2017 and 2018 by 0.13 and 0.18 percentage points.

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP Statistics: Angola //knoema.fr/lkzgwqf/gdp-statistics-angola 2019-10-24T18:09:17Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
GDP Statistics: Angola

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
European Union GDP //knoema.fr/rtbjfi/european-union-gdp 2019-10-24T18:09:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
European Union GDP

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Japan GDP Growth //knoema.fr/hlmywtb/japan-gdp-growth 2019-10-24T18:09:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Japan GDP Growth

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Real GDP 2011, GDP at PPP, GDP at current prices //knoema.fr/cozngde/real-gdp-2011-gdp-at-ppp-gdp-at-current-prices 2019-10-24T18:09:13Z Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
Real GDP 2011, GDP at PPP, GDP at current prices

Select your country in the drop-down window above

Misha Gusev knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000560
World's Biggest Economies in Terms of Value //knoema.fr/dyykvld/world-s-biggest-economies-in-terms-of-value 2019-10-24T18:00:30Z Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
World's Biggest Economies in Terms of Value

Overview: The United States is the largest economy in the world with GDP at $20412.87 billion, which shows the US economy increased from around $19390.60 billion last year. China follows, with $14092.51 billion, which is an increase of more than $2078 billion in comparison to 2017. Japan is in third place with an economy of $5167.05 billion, up from $294.91 billion from previous year. Three European countries take up the next places on the list: Germany is fourth, with a $4211.64 billion economy, the United Kingdom is fifth with $2936.29 billion and France is sixth with $2925 billion. Close behind the UK and France, India’s economy is at seventh position with $2848.23 billion, and Italy is in eighth with an economy of $2181.97 billion. Ninth on the list is Brazil, with an economy of more than $2138.92 billion, while Canada is 10th with a $1798.51 billion economy. The US economy is larger than the combined economies of Germany, UK, France, India, Italy, Brazil and Canada. Overall, the global economy is worth of $87504.56 billion, which means US economy’s share is 23.33% of the World economy. US economy roughly covers one fourth of the World economy. India is on path to become world’s 5th Largest Economy: India is on track to overtake the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth largest economy in 2019, according to data and forecasts from the IMF. Both the US and China are multi-trillion dollar economies whereas India is now a $2848 billion economy. India will take time to reach in multi trillion economy category, whereas the gap between UK's economy and Indian economy is narrow (UK’s economy is greater by US$88 billion in 2018). Although there is huge gap between per capita income of these countries. In the post financial-crisis period of 2010-2017, UK’s economy has grown approx. 2 percent on average. At the same time India’s economy has grown approx. at 7 percent on average. If both the economies growing at the same pace, India will overtake UK in 2019. Role of demographics in growth: In the long term, India has objective to achieve and maintain high growth with high per capita income. Fertility reduction, India’s stubbornly high fertility rate stands at 2.33 children per woman (Source: World Bank) among the highest outside Africa and Middle East, creates demographic dividends and opportunities for economic growth. Fertility reduction would also help to improve infant mortality rate and maternal mortality rate. Lower fertility could induce higher participation rate particularly for women and decline in youth dependency rate may further leads to increased investment in education and health of each child. As Asian countries like China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have discovered in the last century, fertility reduction opens a demographic window for growth because it gives a country whole generations of adults who can go to work instead of staying home to take care of multiple children. India also needs to follow its Asian counterparts and to adopt right policies to reduce fertility rate, rather to stopping women from having more children and forcing sterilization should encourage young people for delay marriage and focus on careers. This will have dual impact, first when young people are economically active, they tend to wait to have children and have fewer when they have. Second when they focus on career it leads to more contribution to the economy.

Nematullah Khan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1975840
GDP by Country //knoema.fr/qkfgtme/gdp-by-country 2019-10-24T17:13:14Z Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
GDP by Country

The current table includes 188 countries ranked by their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of 2016. The data comes from the latest release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database published in October 2016. According to the definition given in the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) - the international statistical standard for the national accounts - GDP is the total value of the final uses of goods and services measured at purchasers' prices over a particular period of time. Thus, it can be said, that GDP represents the size a country's whole economy. In this relation, it can be used to compare countries by the size of their economies. As per this comparison, it appears that the United States had the biggest economy in the world in 2016 with GDP of 18,562 billion U.S. dollars. Still, using GDP measured in U.S. dollars for international comparisons is not quite correct, because it is affected by the differences in price levels between countries. Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) are used to remove this effect and to produce comparable estimates of GDP measured in a common currency. According to this measure, China, not the US, is the biggest economy in the world as on 2016.

Alex Kulikov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1847910
Cyprus crisis //knoema.fr/bffxusg/cyprus-crisis 2019-10-24T17:09:32Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Cyprus crisis

On 16 March 2013, the EU and IMF agreed a €10 billion deal with Cyprus to receive money from the EU-IMF. As part of the deal, a one-off bank deposit levy of 6.7% for deposits up to €100,000 and 9.9% for higher deposits, was announced on all domestic bank accounts. Cyprus is the fifth country after Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to turn to the euro zone for financial help during the region's debt crisis and receive money from the EU-IMF.

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Account Balance Rankings by Country //knoema.fr/wevjrlc/account-balance-rankings-by-country 2019-10-24T17:09:30Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Account Balance Rankings by Country

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Inflation World Map //knoema.fr/xflhtof/inflation-world-map 2019-10-24T17:09:29Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Inflation World Map

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GDP World Map //knoema.fr/mlhdalg/gdp-world-map 2019-10-24T17:09:28Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
GDP World Map

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Current Account Balance //knoema.fr/vygpfib/current-account-balance 2019-10-24T17:09:27Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Current Account Balance

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Structural Balance //knoema.fr/pnhafsg/structural-balance 2019-10-24T17:09:25Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Structural Balance

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Net Lending/Borrowing //knoema.fr/rhvujdb/net-lending-borrowing 2019-10-24T17:09:21Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Net Lending/Borrowing

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Total Revenue //knoema.fr/qhsxccc/total-revenue 2019-10-24T17:09:20Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Total Revenue

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Government Debt //knoema.fr/ecvmfkc/government-debt 2019-10-24T17:09:16Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Government Debt

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Govenment Finance //knoema.fr/onyzaac/govenment-finance 2019-10-24T17:09:15Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Govenment Finance

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
GDP by country //knoema.fr/dibydie/gdp-by-country 2019-10-24T17:09:14Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
GDP by country

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Statistical Review of World Economy by Indicator //knoema.fr/yfkmhcc/statistical-review-of-world-economy-by-indicator 2019-10-24T17:09:10Z Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
Statistical Review of World Economy by Indicator

Anna Volegova knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1052610
GDP Statistics - India //knoema.fr/atmxnje/gdp-statistics-india 2019-10-24T16:47:12Z Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
GDP Statistics - India

Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Germany vs. GIPS (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) //knoema.fr/jnhxsdc/germany-vs-gips-greece-italy-portugal-and-spain 2019-10-24T16:47:12Z Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Germany vs. GIPS (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain)

Comparison of select economic indicators between Germany and the GIPS countries.   Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2019.

Data Geek knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000610
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Western Africa //knoema.fr/mdkdtzb/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-western-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:51Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Western Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Southern Africa //knoema.fr/tclhdld/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-southern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:50Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Southern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Northern Africa //knoema.fr/sswtsse/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-northern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:50Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Northern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Central Africa //knoema.fr/dmtnvtf/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-central-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:49Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Central Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Eastern Africa //knoema.fr/mebkyq/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-eastern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:48Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Eastern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Africa //knoema.fr/pxvikdb/government-debt-and-per-capita-income-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:48Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Debt and Per Capita Income: Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Western Africa //knoema.fr/kvvtvx/government-gross-debt-western-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:47Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Western Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Southern Africa //knoema.fr/fsrzbed/government-gross-debt-southern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:46Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Southern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Central Africa //knoema.fr/ehrqeyb/government-gross-debt-central-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:46Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Central Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Northern Africa //knoema.fr/oegtsd/government-gross-debt-northern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:45Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Northern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Eastern Africa //knoema.fr/eavfqob/government-gross-debt-eastern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:44Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
Government Gross Debt: Eastern Africa

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
African countries Government Gross Debt - highest //knoema.fr/siovlvg/african-countries-government-gross-debt-highest 2019-10-24T16:45:44Z Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
African countries Government Gross Debt - highest

Eldar Khattatov knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000520
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Western Africa //knoema.fr/uybzuie/general-government-fiscal-balances-and-debt-western-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:26Z Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Western Africa

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011

Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Southern Africa //knoema.fr/pbcznuf/general-government-fiscal-balances-and-debt-southern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:25Z Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Southern Africa

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015

Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Northern Africa //knoema.fr/efksrpg/general-government-fiscal-balances-and-debt-northern-africa 2019-10-24T16:45:24Z Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt: Northern Africa

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011

Ilona Ambartsumyan knoema.fr://knoema.fr/user/1000340