(9 June 2021) The aluminum price reached the value of $2,534 per metric ton on May 7th of this year, the highest price since the two-year high in April 2018. The consensus forecast for 2021 from three leading sources (the IMF, the World Bank, and Innovation and Science Australia, an advisory board to the Australian government) is $2,072 per metric ton.

The rise in aluminum prices is a result of high demand in China and growing concerns that China's new climate policy, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, could limit future supply of the metal. In 2020, China accounted for 56% of all refined aluminum production. Steadily increasing demand could see the global aluminum market tighten into a deficit.

The production of aluminum is a highly energy-intensive process, and despite energy efficiency improvements in China in recent decades, the process remains highly carbon-intensive: more than 80% of China's aluminum is produced using coal-fired power.

The leading sources' aluminum price forecasts are as follows:

  • According to the World Bank, the aluminum price will increase to $2,000 per metric ton (t) in 2021, a 17% rise from an average of $1,703/t in 2020, and experience moderate growth to $2,050/t in 2022. By 2035, the World Bank predicts aluminum prices will reach $2,400/t.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that aluminum prices will rise to $2,083/t in 2021 — a jump of 22% over the previous year, the largest predicted increase among the three forecasts — and to $2,126/t in 2022. The long-term IMF projection is that the price of aluminum will reach $2,276/t in 2026. 
  • Innovation and Science Australia (ISA) predicts that the price of aluminum will grow to $2,134/t in 2021 and to $2,160/t in 2022, the highest growth forecast by any of the three organizations.

For their forecasts, both World Bank and the IMF use London Metal Exchange (LME) settlement prices for high-grade unalloyed primary ingots of 99.7% purity.

 

Price forecasts for other critical commodities: 

gold | silver | copper | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil

Aperçus connexes de Knoema

Zinc Prices Forecast: Long Term 2018 to 2030 | Data and Charts

(28 June 2021) Zinc prices showed 50% growth year-over-year in May 2021, an increase to $2,965 per metric ton from $1,975 in May 2020. The increase followed a two-year decline of 45% from the ten-year high of $3,500 in 2018. The price is currently 11.5% above the 5-year moving average — a figure analysts were not expecting, since zinc demand is declining in the era of COVID-19. Several key supply and demand drivers are playing a role. The upward price drivers are as follows: Disruption of zinc concentrate supplies due to the suspension of large zinc mines as a result of the...

Nickel Price Forecasts: Long-Term 2021 to 2030 | Data and Charts

(28 June 2021) Nickel prices were up 44% year-over-year in May 2021, from $12,179 to $17,577 per metric ton. Since the 13-year low in February 2016, nickel prices have been showing strong cyclical growth. The World Bank, in its commodity forecast report, estimated that nickel prices will fall to a low of $16,000 per metric ton in 2022, but they expect the average spot price for nickel will grow slightly further after the correction, reaching $18,000 per metric ton by the end of the year. The IMF's metal cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) report revealed an expected rise from...

Natural Gas Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050

(15 June 2021) The US natural gas spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana — the benchmark price reference for the US natural gas market and an important price reference in global gas trading — will average $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, a 51% increase from the 2020 average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency attributes this year's price growth to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increasing domestic natural gas consumption outside of the power sector. In 2022, Henry Hub prices are expected to decrease to...

World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast, 2020-2021

(13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. The agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the two months starting on 1 May 2020. In the following 6 months, OPEC+ countries will cut production by 7.7 mb/d more and in the subsequent 16 months, the adjustment will constitute 5.8 mb/d. Oil prices started to rise as early as ahead of emergency OPEC+ meeting held on April 9 - the first...