Trade Data Monitor | Exports to US, EU Drive China Export Comeback

(16 March 2021) By John W. Miller, TDM Insights. The global economy appears ready for a strong rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. Shipments from China, the world’s top exporter, increased a whopping 60.6% year-on-year to US$468.9 billion over the first two months of 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor, the world’s premier source of trade numbers.

• In the first two months of 2021, Chinese exports to the US totaled $80.5 billion, up 87.3% year-on-year, and those to the EU rose 62.6% to $73.7 billion. By comparison, exports to all of Latin America totaled $31.2 billion; to Japan, $25.2 billion; to all of Africa, $20.7 billion; and to India, $14.2 billion.
• Some of the products with the sharpest increases are ordinary consumer goods. Exports of toys, for example, increased 96.8% to $5 billion; lighting fittings and parts rose 122.1% to $7.8 billion, and home electrical appliances were up 93.7% to $14.6 billion. By comparison, exports of medical devices amounted to only $2.8 billion, up 75.3%.
• Exports of products needed to work from home have been increasing for the last 12 months. The big reason for the eye-popping increase to start the year is that now other goods are rebounding, too. Exports of motor vehicles and chassis, for example, increased 106.8% to $4.2 billion. Shipments of footwear, which had been in decline, rose 32.8% to $7.5 billion.
• For trading partners, the battle is still, as ever, to obtain markets within China. Thanks in part to new agreements which guaranteed purchases of soybeans and other products, China increased its imports from the US 66.4% to $29.3 billion. Those from the EU rose 32.5% to $45.9 billion. But both the US and EU will have a difficult time competing against China’s geographic neighbors: China imports from ASEAN countries were higher than either, totaling $53.1 billion, up 29.9%.
• Where the US and EU still have an edge is in shipping high-value high-tech and industrial goods, as well as some essential bulk commodities. Chinese imports of high-tech products increased 35.1% to $113.8 billion; of auto parts, 47.8% to $6.7 billion; and of soybeans, 14.6% to $6.3 billion.

China’s strong bounce-back cements its path toward owning the world’s largest gross domestic product before 2030, and confirms the emergence of a 21st-century economy dominated by three large blocs: China, and its two top trading partners, the US and the European Union.