The World Energy Outlook is the International Energy Agency's annual flagship publication that provides long-term projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, by fuel and by region, under several policy scenarios*. These projections currently extend to 2040.
WEO-2015 presents three main scenarios that are differentiated by their energy and climate policy assumptions, with the future energy picture that they portray varying significantly, and introduces a forth in this latest edition:
Global energy demand increases in all WEO scenarios, but government policies play a powerful role in dictating the degree of growth and the degree to which energy-related emissions decouple from energy use. Overall, new energy and climate policies – either those that have been announced or those that are prescribed to meet the world’s climate goal – serve to restrain the pace at which energy demand grows and to weaken, or break (in the case of the 450 Scenario), the link between growth in energy demand and in energy-related emissions, a crucial consideration for COP21.
Moving to oil, markets expect oil prices to head higher as markets work off the current excess supply, but risks remain. The process of adjustment in the oil market is rarely a smooth one, but, in the IEA's Central Scenario, the market rebalances at $89/bbl in 2020, with further increases in price thereafter. Demand picks up to 2020, adding an average of 900 kb/d per year, but the subsequent rise to 103.5 mb/d in 2040 is moderated by higher prices, efforts to phase out subsidies (provided that momentum behind reform is maintained, even as oil prices pick up), efficiency policies, and switching to alternative fuels. Collectively, the United States, EU and Japan see their oil demand drop by around 10 mb/d by 2040. On the supply side, the decline in current upstream spending, estimated at more than 20 percent in 2015, results in the combined production of non-OPEC producers peaking before 2020 at just above 55 mb/d.
* see the definitions at the bottom of this page
It's a one pager PDF full of live links to energy-related data, statistics, and dashboards from leading industry sources. It will be a useful resource for any analyst, business executive, or researcher with an interest in the oil & gas industry, energy companies, biofuels and much more.
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According to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, total global reserves, by fossil fuel, are now: Coal - 1,139 billion tonnes Natural Gas - 187 trillion cubic meters Crude Oil - 1,707 billion barrels While these volumes may seem large at a glance, at today's level of extraction and production rates, BP's estimated proved reserves*, by fossil fuel, would be exhausted as follows: Coal - year 2169 Natural Gas - year 2068 Crude Oil - year 2066 BP dutifully acknowledges the abundance of factors that could easily alter these projections, but these factors do not alter the global policy imperitive to support sustainable fossil...
In March, US President Donald Trump issued the “Energy Independence” executive order, requiring the US Environmental Protection Agency to rewrite the Clean Power Plan, a keystone of former President Obama’s efforts to address climate change. According to experts from the Trump administration, rejecting federal support for alternative energy and delaying the full transition of the US economy to renewable resources will reduce the US budget by approximately 18 percent. According to Trump, his order represents a historic step toward removing restrictions on US energy and abandoning the rules that cut jobs in the industry. Just as the...
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015