US Nonfarm Payrolls estimates and revisions

The latest empoyment situation report, issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Fri 3 Apr was a huge disappointment. Payrolls increased by only 126,000 workers in March, the smallest gain since December 2013 and much weaker than the economists' most pessimistic forecasts. Moreover, the payroll numbers for the two previous months were significantly revised down (-56,000 compared to initial estimate for the January and -31,000 for the February).

The Labor Department data capped a week of reports suggesting the economy is losing momentum, calling into question whether the recovery is strong enough to justify the Federal Reserve raising rates at the same time fueling speculation that signs of a slowdown will hurt earnings. US Treasuries climbed and the US dollar immediately weakened after worse-than-forecast U.S. payrolls bolstered the case for keeping interest rates lower for longer. U.S. stock futures tumbled amid concern economic growth softened in the first quarter.

However, it should be noted that these seasonal adjusted numbers are differ from the raw data enormously. Stats without seasonal adjustments doesn't show any unusual changes (see the graph at the bottom), so the current true state of the US labor market is still questioned.

In this dashboard you can inspect monthly BLS Payroll Data and it's revisions since 1979. Select the indicator on the data card to see the full history of the time-series.

Source: US Nonfarm Payroll Employment over-the-month estimates and revisions, March 2015